Lobo/Reflect Time trainer/surface change

[illinoisbred]

Originally Posted by Cratos

An excellent post with a superb horse analysis; you should be commended on both your rationale and commonsense approach for selecting a contender. With that kind of patience and analytics you should do well in this game

I agree. Case well-presented.

[WinterTriangle]

Cratos and Illinois, thanks.

Selections area is for posting picks before races. Handicapping/General is for discussing, either before or after. I appreciate sharing thoughts....doesn't matter ONE BIT to me whether they tell me before, or after.

... what did they see, what was their reasoning, and how might I benefit next time an opportunity presents itself? Sharing insight today is more important than cashing a ticket today, because it may enable me to cash tickets tomorrow.

I'm happy for anyone who makes a good handicapping decison and love to hear about it. It costs me nothing to give another forum member kudos. :shrugs:

For some, though, every post is a competition, and especially egregious if they imagine being left out of some vital information stream----(to which they feel entitled. )

[PaceAdvantage]

This thread has been scrubbed and its off-topic contents moved here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...579#post801579

Sorry for the temporary intrusion folks...

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by tribecaagent

Andy Serling liked this horse.

I hope he had the Pick 4, which was close to $8000. He gave it out in the NYRA chat the night before.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

I watched him in the Sham and the Robert B. Lewis, he can't seem to rally on synth. Makes sense. The horse isn't a synth horse.

So, this was a race where you look for a horse "doing something different" and try to figure the outcome of that change, good or bad.

Paulo Lobo claims him, takes him out of CA, puts him on dirt, (he seems to always want to do this, what he did with Gayego ) looks like he gives him a race to see what's-what at a mile......now 2nd race on dirt he puts Reflect Times in a little longer---- and he wins.

All the pedigree stats bore this out, dirt horse. Seeking the Gold towered over other horses for dirt wins, and on sire side, French Deputy horse moving to dirt (from turf) towered over others as well.

I won't say if I played him.

Anyway, I really like Lobo.

Its ironic because Cratos says your a genius but I wonder if you really did scrutinize this horse closely or if you just are following Paulo Lobo (and his 12% strike rate) blindly.

First, you say Reflect Times was claimed. This is incorrect. If you looked at the PPs, you'd see he's never run in a claiming event. (Not to mention they make no mention of him being claimed away from John Sheriffs). He wasn't likely sold either, because he runs in the same silks at Aqueduct as he did in CA.

Then you mention that Reflect Times is not a synthetic horse. This ignores his first two starts, where he uncorked otherworldly rallies to snatch victories in the final hundred yards.

Curiously, you mention multiple Grade 1 winner (top class on both dirt and synthetics) Gayego in your lauding of Lobo, yet fail to mention that this is the very horse that Reflect Times smoked in his second lifetime start. Yet somehow this translates into a horse that can't handle synthetics.

Despite his improvement from recent form, certainly Reflect Times (who had a lot of hype as someone mentioned by the end of his 2yo year) beat no one of Gayego's calibur in that Aqueduct race.

And given his blah effort first time on dirt where he lost contact with the field (very reminiscent of his synthetic races in CA this year) it could be argued that his form reversal the other day was due to him being very aggressive early, pulling himself into a stalking trip. The only other time he tried this was in the Sham, where he got his head ripped off by better horses.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Its ironic because Cratos says your a genius but I wonder if you really did scrutinize this horse closely or if you just are following Paulo Lobo (and his 12% strike rate) blindly.

Cratos also thinks that SteveR has a strong grounding in the game. Thanks for having the patience to expose some of this for what it is.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Cratos also thinks that SteveR has a strong grounding in the game. Thanks for having the patience to expose some of this for what it is.

I find it laughable that you become cynical about my complimenting another poster’s post.

First of all I never called WinterTriangle a “genius.” I said then and I will reiterate that it was a well presented case for handicapping a horse. If you differ then say so and show why the post is lacking. Also I believe another poster indicated that Andy Serling (TLG) had the same choice as WinterTriangle; coincidence, maybe?

I have never said that: “SteveR has a strong grounding in the game” (your words). What I have posted and I am paraphrasing is that Steve R has presented some good quantitative posts.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Murph

NICE Redboard. You are getting so good at this game.

sharp post. we're all geniuses after they cross the wire. sometimes, i even amaze myself.

[WinterTriangle]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The only other time he tried this was in the Sham, where he got his head ripped off by better horses.

Better horses? Perhaps you noticed that Reflect Times didn't train OR race for well over a year after that race? 14 months to be exact.

bone chip

Nothing to do with better horses. Its why he was scratched off the KY Derby Trail.



I supplied pedigree details which spoke to ME that the horse is not a synth specialist, I don't really care if he ran on it and did okay. His pedigree screams dirt to me.

I guess we'll see. (Unless you think there's absolutely NO REASON Koji Maeda sends the horse clear across the US to race on dirt with Lobo, instead of keeping him with Sheriffs in CA on synth, after the horse comes back on synth and pretty much runs close to last in every race? )




As for claiming, I was incorrect on that. ( But that has little bearing on the argument, does it?). The point is the horse has been brought back East to run on dirt, and Koji Maeda has him with a different trainer...... A trainer who I believe loves real dirt and understands it.

(I did not know Lobo had 12% stats......thanks for letting me know. I like him even more now. )

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle

Better horses? Perhaps you noticed that Reflect Times didn't train OR race for well over a year after that race? 14 months to be exact.

Hah! Good point. Interesting that you didn't mention this in your first "analysis" despite using the Sham as evidence that Reflect Times isn't a synthetic horse. I guess whatever helps your case, eh?

Anyways, I also had the Robert Lewis to prove the horse wasn't up to the better route 3yos at the SA winter meet.

bone chip

You know what's good for that?

Dirt.

Nothing to do with better horses. Its why he was scratched off the KY Derby Trail.

Yes. Its too bad they already ran the NYRA Mile, because to hear you tell it we just saw another great comeback story that had its genesis in a late season Aqueduct allowance race (see Cigar).

I supplied pedigree details which spoke to ME that the horse is not a synth specialist, I don't really care if he ran on it and did okay. His pedigree screams dirt to me.

Awww. It all makes sense to me now. The scene must have played something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nba8VPO0LQw

I guess we'll see.

Dios mio.

As for claiming, I was incorrect on that. ( But that has little bearing on the argument, does it?).

Actually it has everything to do with my argument, which was calling into question how carefully you "scrutinized" the horse's race record.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Cratos also thinks that SteveR has a strong grounding in the game. Thanks for having the patience to expose some of this for what it is.

The only one with a strong grounding in the game is so obviously the_fat_man.

He'll simply be content to call everyone else an idiot until someone finally shuts his fat ass up.

[Tom]

Lotsa talkie, not much walkie.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The only one with a strong grounding in the game is so obviously the_fat_man.

He'll simply be content to call everyone else an idiot until someone finally shuts his fat ass up.

SteveR is a number crusher who lacks any intuitions whatsoever about the game. I noticed this after reading his 2nd post. Then I slapped him on ignore and he was basically just taking up space.

I realize the truth hurts for those who can only approach the game analytically. But it's just the way it is. My aim is to provide an alternative to all the number/program/DB approaches which pretty much DOMINATE this and other forums and do not really present things as they actually are. Personally, I have a problem taking as gospel information from those who:

1) expect a negative or slightly positive ROI as being the best one can do
2) depend on REBATES to win in this game
3) continue to knock tracks that present very good money making opportunities (WO, in the prime example, SYNTHETICS in general are a broader one)
etc.
4) can only 'understand' stand the game by resorting to a number (of some sort --- in most cases not of their own derivation)


I realize that someone who

1) doesn't pay for data or for anything involving the game
2) doesn't use figures of any sort
3) doesn't read or rely on the approaches of any of the 'famous' racing authors

and STILL WINS, is hard to take for those relying on all these things. FREE and MY WAY --- a good way to go.

The only way my approach gets 'shut down' is if I stop winning. And, given the many IDIOTS here, and their methods, this will not be happening any time soon.

Clearly, Pace, some of the shit I read here, even from guys that are SELLING shit, and have supposedly good reputations, is nothing else but LAUGHABLE.

Of course, next time I see something interesting/of value/relating to the nuaces of the game posted here, I'll be sure to respond.

And, my offer still stands, btw, for you and I to go head to head, for real money, with you utilizing the highest Beyer in each race you bet. That'll be fun.

P.S. See you at the next redboard. Now, this poster is someone I can learn a lot from.

[Tom]

Whether he wins of not, I could really care less. I think he needs to think he is superior to everyone else here. He is not. If he wins, how he wins is of no real interest to me. I only care about how I win. No one asks how you won the money. His 5-1 shots pay the same as my 5-1 shots. From what I see, he makes very few picks and quite a few attacks. If we are so idiotic here, why bother coming here, unless it is to try to convince people how great he is???

I'll take the people here who are really horse players and not trolls. Guys like CJ, Cratos, Jeff, Dave, Overlay, Douglas and Handiman, Andy, and others, over this dime store cowboy with nothing to offer but crap. Big mouths are a dime a dozen.

[cj]

I'll touch on these two while I have a few minutes:

1) expect a negative or slightly positive ROI as being the best one can do
2) depend on REBATES to win in this game

These are about maximizing profit which I don't think you get. I can have a great ROI if I bet very few races and don't bet a lot of money. Who really cares?

What is better of these two scenarios?

1) You have a +30% ROI, but you only bet a few tracks and find maybe 5 plays a week. So, you would have 250 plays a year. If you bet $500 a pop you bet 125k per year and profit $37,500. I don't think these number are realistic, but maybe in TFM virtual world they are so I'll use them.

2) You have a -3% ROI, but you bet a 200 races a week and you receive on average a 10% rebate. Since your plays are spread among different sized tracks, some can't make $500 bets without hurting your price. I'll cut the bet to $200 per race. You are now putting $2,000,000 through the windows. On bets, you lose about $60,000. But you receive $200,000 in rebates, for a net gain of $140,000.

See TFM, this isn't about ego, it is about cash. In the current climate, sure you can do fine cherry picking races and make a profit, but why leave that extra 100 grand and change on the table? You are playing like a guy sitting at a 5 card draw poker table but you won't draw any cards just on principle. Sure you can win, but you better get dealt a lot of full houses.