I'm convinced more than ever....

[Dave Schwartz]

This is, of course, a debate that has been going on for decades. I recall meeting more than one handicapper back in the 70's where the greeting ended with, "Do you follow class or speed?"

The problem I have is that every time I ask for the definition of "class" it comes back to me as a function of "speed."

Things like "can run to par for this level" certainly includes a "speed" component.


From my point of view, "speed" is about "speed numbers" and "class" is about numbers produced from the earnings box or about relative class levels (ultimately determined by pars).

My experience indicates that most of the so-called class approaches (at least as defined above) falls far short of a speed-number-based approach.

The issue with the "class advantaged" horse is that they are generally very obvious and generally go off at 4/5.


Just my opinion and I am very willing to be educated with a "class" method that works well.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[CincyHorseplayer]

Cramer already showed after a huge survey that speed figures go up on drops and down on rises to the 6-8 point variety.

In the land of nearly all restricted races here in Ohio.Class moves are big.The subtle the better.


I'm self plagiarising here but only because it's a relevant point.Class handicapping is meaningful.The subtle differences make money every day.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

This is, of course, a debate that has been going on for decades. I recall meeting more than one handicapper back in the 70's where the greeting ended with, "Do you follow class or speed?"

The problem I have is that every time I ask for the definition of "class" it comes back to me as a function of "speed.".......................................... ............................................

regards,
Dave Schwartz

Yes it is, but you leave of the very important qualifiers over an amount of ground and weight carried. Class has to do with stamina mixed with speed.

However, more really needs to be added to the definition to account for the ability to exhibit the speed over the amount of ground carrying weight against compitition.

[TrifectaMike]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

This is, of course, a debate that has been going on for decades. I recall meeting more than one handicapper back in the 70's where the greeting ended with, "Do you follow class or speed?"

The problem I have is that every time I ask for the definition of "class" it comes back to me as a function of "speed."

Things like "can run to par for this level" certainly includes a "speed" component.


From my point of view, "speed" is about "speed numbers" and "class" is about numbers produced from the earnings box or about relative class levels (ultimately determined by pars).

My experience indicates that most of the so-called class approaches (at least as defined above) falls far short of a speed-number-based approach.

The issue with the "class advantaged" horse is that they are generally very obvious and generally go off at 4/5.


Just my opinion and I am very willing to be educated with a "class" method that works well.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Class - The degree to which a horse can overcome chaos.

Mike

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Cratos,

And how do you define "class?"


Dave

Dave,

In my earlier post I defined class as “a horse’s ability to consistently win at a given level under all conditions.”

However I will expand on that definition. Class is always post race determined; however it can be pre-race assessed.

The major determinants of class (not necessary in order) are:

SPEED – the ability of the horse to run fast enough to win consistently at a given level.
STAMINA – the ability of the horse to run the distance of the race and consistently win.
STRENGTH – the ability of the horse to tote weight at the pace and distance of the race; and win.
STYLE – the ability of the horse to adapt and negotiate the pace of the race and win.

The two most important indicators of class is consistency and winning. No matter how well a horse run at a given level, it must win at that level consistently to have class at that level.

There will be those who will argue that other things, for example winning on a off-track determines class and to that I say no, it only enhances a horse’s class.

Lastly, there isn’t any single metric in my opinion that will determine or quantify class. A favorite line from the legendary Pittsburgh Phil was “when you find class, bet it.” Class is the quintessential elusive butterfly.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by TrifectaMike

Class - The degree to which a horse can overcome chaos.

Mike

or PACE pressures in Today's, not any other, race. So called "class" then
only really matters in THIS contest, no other.

The horse doesn't know what MAN MADE class level he is running in.

[Gold9er]

yo got it right. except for young horses with 1 or two starts. then speed figures can be effective. i used to be a speed handicapping guru. but then i thought. if it was possible to go back in time and run the same race over 10 times, and the horses had the same form and post position, you would probally get 5 different final times. does one speed figure tell you how fast a horse is? probally not. i use speed figures to judge if a horse will bounce or not. i think form is the top factor along with class.
theres two things that i will throw a horse out for the win automatically.
1. caint pass anybody
2. ran top speed figure last time
these two work most of the time but not all the time.
then i use the horse with the best form along with class

[Tom]

Part of class is determination, or heart. Does the horse dig down when challenged, or give up? You can't put a number on that, but you can see it. When two horses duel to the wire, when one horse wants the early lead no matter what, you can see them digging in and fighting. They use speed to do it, but the speed is called by the desire.

That is one of the key things I look for in evaluating front runners - I much prefer a line like" 1-hd 2-hd 2-hd 1 no to one like: 1-4 1-3 1-3 1-2
The fomrer showing heart in duelling for the front end.

Class horses can be soundly beaten when they don't get thier pace or set up of surface or distance, but when they go down fighting, not quitting, and they may even overcome the obstacles and win or run close when they should not. Hard Spun comes to mind. PON in the Derby. Alydar! Sham, whom may have run himslef into the ground in the Belmont.

These are not machines, and all the abilit in the world won't get home a horse who gives up. Pyro struck me as a talented horse with questionable calss. He was capable of running big races, but he gave up to many time when everything was not just right for him. This might turn out to be Quality Road's legacy, too.

[fmolf]

class is a combination of speed stamina and form all interrelated.A horse may be fast enough due to good form to run @20k successfully today but next week may lose this form and only be competitive at 10k.....this is why horses climb and descend the claiming ladder everyday.As races go up in class so do the speed and pace figures needed to win these races.Heart and guts are good in a race horse but can be seen in lower level animals as well as the upper echelon stakes runners.What a lot of people mistake for no heart is no stamina.cheap speed dying.So the difference between a lower class animal is not how fast he runs as both could run a 21 to the first call.the classier animal will carry his speed a lot further.

[classhandicapper]

Cratos is on the right track.

Class is the simultaneous expression of all aspects of a horse's ability.

Think of it the way you might think of a basketball player for example.

What makes a basketball player great?

1. Shooting
2. Ball Handling
3. Passing
4. Defense
5. Rebounding
6. etc.....

The same of true of horses.

What makes a horse great?

1. Speed, brilliance, acceleration etc... (out of the gate, early, and late)
2. Stamina
3. Determination, courage, heart
4. Versatility (running style, conditions, surface etc...)
5. etc....

When we make pace and speed figures, we are attempting to measure an aspect of class or ability. It may be the most important aspect, but it's not complete. It's approximately like looking at FG%, 3P%, eFG, and TS% for a basketball player, concluding he's a great shooter, and stopping there without examining everything else. It's not complete.

The things that makes it tricky is that all not all horses have equal distributions of each aspect of ability just as every basketball player that's a great shooter is not also a great passer and vice versa etc...

Making matters even worse is that when horses run against each other the pace and race development impacts the final time of each competitor differently depending on how each horse ran within the race, how much overall ability each has, and what distribution of each component each has (that last part is critical and not well understood).

That means using speed figures alone to measure ability is practically laughable. Combining pace figures and speed figures is incrementally better but still not complete and much more open to accuracy problems.

The good news is that racing classifications tend to be reasonably efficient. That is, successful horses tend to move up in class, unsuccessful horses tend to move down and most eventually find the level where they belong even if their form improves, deteriorates etc...

Of course, you have to understand which classes are better than which, by how much, and how various performances at one level compare to those at another level to know how good the horses are.

That is not always a simple task when you are talking about claimers, allowance horses, state breds, a wide variety of restricted and conditioned claimers, claimers/alw races for 3YOs, older, 3 and up etc... that move in and out of each type of race. Then we also have to evaluate shippers from a variety of other tracks with similar and not so similar classing conventions, a different set of statebreds etc.... Finally, we have to deal with seasonal issues (field strength in winter vs. summer for example), the development of younger horses, strong and weak fields within the same class etc....

It's very complex, but that's why it's now profitable. People abandoned class handicapping because it was never defined or measure properly to begin with and because it's not easy to convert class into a number that could be marketed and sold like a speed figure.

But once you can classify horses properly, you are measuring ABILITY properly and can then move on to other factors like "a trip setup that may favor one horse over another", trainer, bias, recency, etc....

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Dave,

In my earlier post I defined class as “a horse’s ability to consistently win at a given level under all conditions.”

However I will expand on that definition. Class is always post race determined; however it can be pre-race assessed.

The major determinants of class (not necessary in order) are:

SPEED – the ability of the horse to run fast enough to win consistently at a given level.
STAMINA – the ability of the horse to run the distance of the race and consistently win.
STRENGTH – the ability of the horse to tote weight at the pace and distance of the race; and win.
STYLE – the ability of the horse to adapt and negotiate the pace of the race and win.

The two most important indicators of class is consistency and winning. No matter how well a horse run at a given level, it must win at that level consistently to have class at that level.

There will be those who will argue that other things, for example winning on a off-track determines class and to that I say no, it only enhances a horse’s class.

Lastly, there isn’t any single metric in my opinion that will determine or quantify class. A favorite line from the legendary Pittsburgh Phil was “when you find class, bet it.” Class is the quintessential elusive butterfly.

Here is an intelligent posting, one of many, by a person that understands horse racing. What impresses me is his undersatanding that a function of class is how the horse wins (style).

He is also correct about off-tracks.

[Dave Schwartz]

While I agree that it is an intelligent post, it is still not quantifiable.

IMHO, something that is not quantifiable is not usable.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

While I agree that it is an intelligent post, it is still not quantifiable.

IMHO, something that is not quantifiable is not usable.

'Class' as utilized by most is akin to 'bounce'. They don't know what it really is, can't quantify it, and certainly can't define it. They resort to it as an explanation as to why a horse didn't run 'predictably'.

The bolded statement is precisely why the game is CRUSHABLE to anyone (with the requisite skill, of course) playing the game in a way that's different than what everyone else is doing. And, for those 'quantifying' without a firm grounding in the 'basics' of the game, and there appear to be many: GOOD LUCK.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

While I agree that it is an intelligent post, it is still not quantifiable.

IMHO, something that is not quantifiable is not usable.

It is quantifiable. Maybe the esoteric definition is not, but class itself is quantifiable.

Don't ask me how, because that is my proprietary information.

[Dave Schwartz]

That is a good answer, SMTW.

Certainly one that holds me at bay, but permit me to ask this...

Somewhere in that combination of elements that produces for you a class number, is there not some reference to speed?