Jockey Comparisons (fun opinions)

[Robert Fischer]

who is better
just thoughts between races/plays

Answer any ones you want and/or ask your own!

who is better?

Jaime Rodriguez or Jose Lezcano?

who is better?
Jose Ortiz or Irad Ortiz ??

who is better

Tyler Gaffalione or Umberto Rispoli? ?


who is better

Paco Lopez or Junior Alvarado ?

Flavien Prat or Joel Rosario ??

Luis Saez or Juan Hernandez??

[hopbet]

Prat OVER Rosario

Irad OVER Jose
Saez OVER Hernandez

Gaff OVER Rispoli ( Grass I slightly FAVOR Rispoli)

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Surface, track, distance, conditions, and trainers need to be included

As for absolute 'talent'

Rodriguez will likely pass Lezcano

Irad

Gaffy without any doubt. Umberto has become more than just a turf rider on the Left Coast, but Gaffy has shown he can ride any horse, anyhwere, anytime, on any surface.

Paco wins more. But I gotta go with Junior. Slowly developing, and I know we all root against Paco in some form or fashion.

Prat/Rosario? Damn. I see Rosario as fading and Prat rising. 2 very strong versatile riders. Gotta go with the younger and improving Prat. Man, Rosario used to be fav for a few years. Yikes.

Saez/Hernandez: Saez, now for sure. Hernandez is a great turf jock, but learning and getting tremendously better on dirt in the US. Hernandez is going to be a force. Dude can really ride.

[Robert Fischer]

everyone is going with Irad over Jose?


Lezcano has earned respect and has raced at the highest level, while Jaime Rodriguez is a big fish in a small pond.
Erase those 1st call for relative supertrainers (Jaime Ness etc..).
Question those races Rodriguez 'steals' when he's not on the best horse - whether he can pull off the same tricks gimmicks and exploitation of rival's errors...
I think a lot of that dries up - which is why I compared to Lezcano and not Jose Ortiz or something... Just the same, he's an excellent rider.





Who is Better? Javier Castellano or Frankie Dettori ??


Who is Better Mike Maker or Doug O'Neill ??

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

]

Gaffy without any doubt

Tyler Gaffalione would be 'underrated' in today's social media terms. I don't think he's necessarily underrated, but he's a little under the radar. He's a good rider.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by hopbet

Prat OVER Rosario

Irad OVER Jose
Saez OVER Hernandez

Gaff OVER Rispoli ( Grass I slightly FAVOR Rispoli)

I guess Prat was too easy!

How about Prat vs. Irad ??

[hopbet]

Gaff is a good rider , However (Gaff and his agent ) are VERY smart they avoid the NYRA circuit EXCEPT Saratoga . He rides Gulfstream in the winter (he is from the area ) and the weather. He (Gaff ) , has FULLY established himself as the PREMIER rider on the Kentucky circuit ( Kenneland , Churchill Downs and Kentucky Downs. . Next question PRAT or IRAD ? Picture time , however IRAD wins the BOB. You still outside California might get some value on PRAT . ( this the most I ever typed on this website), I may need a vacation LOL

[bisket]

Most times it’s the horse. Sometimes it’s the jock and trainer. The analysis is subjective.

[bisket]

For instance… Geaux Rocket Ride got a fever and missed 2 works. He missed the Santa Anita Derby and the derby. He raced once and finished a slow 1st coming into the Haskell. So.. statistically he was a 2nd off a layoff considering his trainer’s statistics. Lol if you take into consideration his entire training history. He was coming into the the Haskell having missed 2 works for a July race and he’s been training since November. He went off double digit odds because statistically that was his profile to professional handicappers. How did that work out considering he finished a length off a 3 year best time in his second race.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by bisket

Most times it’s the horse. Sometimes it’s the jock and trainer. The analysis is subjective.

If you consider 95% + MOST of the time. I suppose you're right.

[classhandicapper]

Trainer and jockey both contribute to winning independently of the horse’s current form. It’s an interesting discussion as to all the reasons why, but regression analysis doesn’t lie. They are very important.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Trainer and jockey both contribute to winning independently of the horse’s current form. It’s an interesting discussion as to all the reasons why, but regression analysis doesn’t lie. They are very important.

Of course talented connections are important in making final decisions for us as players.

But, you can't make chicken soup out of chicken shit.

If a horse isn't good enough he's extremely likely to not succeed.

At any major circuit if you put ANY of the top ten riders on the horses the leading rider ride. That jock would be leading rider.

It's HORSE racing.

[Bustin Stones]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Trainer and jockey both contribute to winning independently of the horse’s current form. It’s an interesting discussion as to all the reasons why, but regression analysis doesn’t lie. They are very important.

Most of the reason that analysis works is that jockeys' agents get the top jockeys on the live contenders. If they don't they won't be working. And it's why that when a top jockey gets off a horse to ride a different entry in a race, that it's smart to avoid the abandoned mount. At that level, they're simply making business decisions. It's one of those self fulfilling prophecy situations. The entries perceived to be most live get the best connections. The best connections are created by having the best entries.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Most of the reason that analysis works is that jockeys' agents get the top jockeys on the live contenders. If they don't they won't be working. And it's why that when a top jockey gets off a horse to ride a different entry in a race, that it's smart to avoid the abandoned mount. At that level, they're simply making business decisions. It's one of those self fulfilling prophecy situations. The entries perceived to be most live get the best connections. The best connections are created by having the best entries.

When I did my regression analysis I was trying to find the value of the jockey and trainer independent of the horse’s speed figures, class, consistency etc.. In other words if a few horses look at least similar on handicapping fundamentals trainer/jockey can be pretty important in separating them.

Maybe you could argue jockey agents have access to information that’s not in the PPs and that accounts for some of it.

[bisket]

It’s a tricky thing taking into consideration which horse a jock chooses to ride over another in the same race. Johnny V would choose a Pletcher runner over another horse in the same race because his meat and potatoes was riding for Pletcher. It can be a business decision when a rider is first call for an established barn rather than ride a better horse from small barn. It happens all the time.