Yuvetsi 8th Santa Anita

[Andy Asaro]

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx

Excerpt:

The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors. Even if that “human” bettor could instantly discover pool value, speech limitations and relatively slow fingertips would prevent punching in thousands of wagers to take full advantage of that insight.

This setup is especially damaging in converting new players into regular players. Even if new players don’t fully understand what is happening when they bet races, they soon recognize there are few instances where the winning payout is better than expected. The chance of finding that type of payout—an overlay—is race wagering’s real attraction, one of its few advantages over casino games. CRW players have helped reduce instances of such overlays, weakening the betting product for everyone else.

==============================================

Not saying I agree with everything in the article but I do agree with most of it. It's a year or two old.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Why don't these ADWs forego all this silly nonsense and just tell these guys who is going to win the race before it goes off...they must be that good from what you're saying.

What kind of bullshit is this? If you can't hold a serious discussion about an issue, then why don't you stay out of it...and go back to your "Trump-talk" at the off-topics?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/...ank-angst.aspx

Excerpt:

The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors. Even if that “human” bettor could instantly discover pool value, speech limitations and relatively slow fingertips would prevent punching in thousands of wagers to take full advantage of that insight.

This setup is especially damaging in converting new players into regular players. Even if new players don’t fully understand what is happening when they bet races, they soon recognize there are few instances where the winning payout is better than expected. The chance of finding that type of payout—an overlay—is race wagering’s real attraction, one of its few advantages over casino games. CRW players have helped reduce instances of such overlays, weakening the betting product for everyone else.

==============================================

Not saying I agree with everything in the article but I do agree with most of it. It's a year or two old.

had not read that, thanks.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think the Whales have the sort of "access" to all the exotics pools that allows their betting software to find wagering "anomalies"...while I have to place most of my exotics wagers "blind". And I also think that these Whales are able to cancel bets after the race starts. Do you have concrete proof that can put these concerns of mine at ease?

Let's just ignore the fact that you didn't address the point of my reply, which was addressing what you wrote about not being able to get your bet in before the race goes off while these CRWs can get hundreds if not thousands of bets in while you sit there looking at the RACE CLOSED message.

I have about as much proof to my end of the argument as you do yours. But the burden would be on you to prove a positive...not me to prove a negative. It's kind of impossible to prove a negative anyway...

Maybe the CRWs do have access to pick3, pick4, pick5 will-pays during the first leg...maybe they do have access to all trifecta combo payouts...I have yet to hear of conclusive proof of this, but maybe they do. I'm a pretty good conspiracy type of guy, so I have an open mind and am willing to believe this kind of thing.

Let me ask a stupid question though...in order for an ADW to provide PickX will-pays during the first leg, don't they HAVE to first get this pool data from the TRACKS? And given the antiquity of most tracks out there, and given some of the highest rebate tracks also tend to be the most antiquated, do you think the tracks THEMSELVES have the ability to see this kind of data with their outdated setups? Like I said, could be a stupid question, but could also be an important one.

ADWs only have the data they have from the host tracks themselves.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What kind of bullshit is this? If you can't hold a serious discussion about an issue, then why don't you stay out of it...and go back to your "Trump-talk" at the off-topics?

Wow...salty man...don't go all loser on me now. We're just getting started. I'll forget I read that and await a proper apology.

No bullshit about any of it. I'm simply making a point that you guys are all making ADWs out to be these purveyors of all this insider super-secret winning info...

[gabe]

I was at SANTA ANITA in a box seat watching these odds closely.

The (3) was getting bet via doubles and pick 3s. The horse wasn't getting bet at track as much as at OTBs and that money comes in last second. The 3 looked great in the form and the 12-1 ML was a joke.

[PaceAdvantage]

I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

The instantaneous knowledge of probable payouts, ability to wager thousands of different combinations, and the capability to make those bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled, provide CRW players unfair advantages over other bettors.

I can do two of these three things right now with more than one of the ADWs I belong to. Really THREE OF THREE depending on what probable payouts you are talking about. And so can you.

But please define "just a few seconds before the race 'when odds have settled'"

Just what the heck does that mean? How does anyone know EXACTLY when a race is about to go off, WHILE LEAVING ENOUGH TIME for the transmission and processing of thousands of different combinations?

[gabe]

Odds go crazy when the ADW and OTB money comes in.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

Dave Schwartz has stated repeatedly that the "Whales" attack every conceivable wagering pool at every racetrack...with the intent of doing as much as they can to suck-out the betting value of every bet combination that they can get their hands on. Can this be accomplished without having updated access to the will-pays of all the wagering pools? Do you suppose that these Whales are as "blind" as WE are....when they bet their millions?

[lamboguy]

the computer teams don't get into the pools when it says pool closed. some have consul's that have access to exotic pools that most don't have. i don't think there are a total of 10 that do have that access. if you take away those 10 people the pools would be down a whole chunk, maybe something like 25%.

the question should be if they got rid of those guys could they make up the deficit from what they lost or come close from the people that will come back to the game.

as far as after the bell betting goes, i have no proof, but i am pretty sure its going on now, but don't have a clue where it is actually done.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I invite Todd Bowker, Ian Myers, Dave Schwartz, or anyone else who has worked with CRW teams or within the upper levels of ADWs to confirm or deny to me privately what is being discussed here...and I will report back what they have said (anonymously of course). Like I said, there are more than a few folks on here who have worked in and with the industry being discussed and who would know the straight dope....or they can do it publicly if they wish...

Ian will probably come over from twitter and explain it. He's a straight shooter.

Twitter

[GMB@BP]

this thread is just another one that tells me to stick to contests where there is less bull shit to deal with.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

this thread is just another one that tells me to stick to contests where there is less bull shit to deal with.

Every pool in every race is supposed to be a contest in theory.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Dave Schwartz has stated repeatedly that the "Whales" attack every conceivable wagering pool at every racetrack...with the intent of doing as much as they can to suck-out the betting value of every bet combination that they can get their hands on. Can this be accomplished without having updated access to the will-pays of all the wagering pools? Do you supposed that these Whales are as "blind" as WE are....when they bet their millions?

And I don't dispute any of what Dave said. I'm sure they do attack every pool at every racetrack they deem worthy to play.

So they must have will-pay info during the first leg of the PICK_X wagers, that is what you're saying, correct?

Could they do similar without this info on PICK_X wagers? Sure they could.

The core of their ability lies at having software that can analyze all the different pool info (even if it is just the pool info YOU AND I have access to). I go back 10 years ago when I was doing this myself...with only my homegrown software and my ADW account.

No, I wasn't doing it like they are doing it...they just took the concept and made it much grander in scope.

It's not an impossible thing to do if you have the programming knowledge and the math background.

Smarter, more resourceful people than you or I tend to be more successful at this game. Should we punish them for this, even if they have access to the same data you and I have? I know it is your belief they have access to data we do not...let's establish that as fact first before we move forward.