Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[sandpit]

This freeopp map is from May 22, five-month-old data, and 11 states are grayed out. Their website won't work on my browser, but presumably they've updated the info.

But here's the real takeaway from this. According to the NYT map, in all but three of the states reporting, at least 20% of all covid deaths come from nursing homes. Considering that the nursing home population in any state is a miniscule percentage, it's very telling how potent this virus is to the elderly vs the general population.

NY nursing home population: 90,000
State population: 19.5 million
% of people in nursing homes in NY: 0.0046

Conclusion: the chances of dying from covid in NY if you are not in a nursing home are approximately zero.

[Poindexter]

I have to admit that the stats on the web site CH presented are very concerning. First off their have been a pretty good consistency between number of deaths and hospitalizations. If you look at 100,000 intervals at the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths you get the following

Deaths, net hospitalizations(to date) % covid deaths to hospitalizations

42636 100051 0.4261426672
95175 203006 0.4688285075
141284 299144 0.4722942797
194848 400840 0.4860991917
218349 465777 0.4687844183





First off this tells me that out of every person that becomes hospitalized from this, close to 47% of them will die and we have made no improvement on that figure in six months despite the claims that we are learning about this disease more and more every day. For some reason the last 65,000 hospitalizations only resulted in 36.2% of people dying, but that may involve lag time.


Second problem is that the number of hospitalizations were headed straight downward from July 20th to September 20th, and then reversed course and have gone straight upward since September 20th. This is a big problem. We have had a 50% increase in hospitalizations in 37 days and given the numbers we have had so far that means that the extra close to 47% of the those extra hospitalizations will likely die. I realize that not everyone that dies was hospitalized but hospitalizations have been a very predictive factor as to number of deaths and is a much more reliable and measurable number than number of cases. The 50% increase in hospitalizations in the last 37 days will ultimately mean a 50% increase in number of deaths.

Honestly haven't been following this much, but the sudden reversal in number of hospitalizations on September 20th needs to be examined thoroughly.

[sandpit]

Numbers fascinate me, I probably should have been a data researcher of some sort.

According to something called covidtracking.com, the current cumulative amount of hospitalizations from covid in the US is 465,777, from the beginning of the virus some nine months ago until now.

According to the CDC the flu hospitalizations for the 2019-20 season (Oct 1-April 4), so approximately six months, was anywhere between 410,000-740,000.

So if these flu numbers are viable and typical, then why aren't the hospitals overrun with flu patients every year?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

Once again... NY data on this issue is flawed. This is maybe the 5th time I've had to reply to your fictitious #s

https://www.lohud.com/story/news/cor...ow/3312634001/

New York’s flawed approach to reporting COVID-19 deaths involving nursing homes has hindered a push to protect frail and elderly people most vulnerable to the coronavirus, lawmakers and advocates said.

The concerns stemmed from the state Department of Health decision to only report the number of nursing home residents who died of COVID-19 inside the facility, omitting those who died at hospitals.

As a result, New York’s current official COVID-19 death toll of 6,421 nursing home residents could be missing at least 1,600 virus-related fatalities connected to the long-term care facilities, according to health policy researchers and advocates.

Some advocates and analysis suggested the toll is significantly higher, with several thousand more nursing home residents dying at hospitals in connection to the crisis at the center of the pandemic.

SNIP

Maybe. But let's take a closer look.

You and your article don't know how much more. Even if we increase fatalities to 10,000 from the 8,000 they suggest, total deaths is still under 30% of the approx. 34,.000 + people have died of Covid in NYS.

30 % is still much lower than your home state of 46% Texas, and still lower than many other states

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I have to admit that the stats on the web site CH presented are very concerning. First off their have been a pretty good consistency between number of deaths and hospitalizations. If you look at 100,000 intervals at the number of hospitalizations and the number of deaths you get the following

Deaths, net hospitalizations(to date) % covid deaths to hospitalizations

42636 100051 0.4261426672
95175 203006 0.4688285075
141284 299144 0.4722942797
194848 400840 0.4860991917
218349 465777 0.4687844183





First off this tells me that out of every person that becomes hospitalized from this, close to 47% of them will die and we have made no improvement on that figure in six months despite the claims that we are learning about this disease more and more every day. For some reason the last 65,000 hospitalizations only resulted in 36.2% of people dying, but that may involve lag time.


Second problem is that the number of hospitalizations were headed straight downward from July 20th to September 20th, and then reversed course and have gone straight upward since September 20th. This is a big problem. We have had a 50% increase in hospitalizations in 37 days and given the numbers we have had so far that means that the extra close to 47% of the those extra hospitalizations will likely die. I realize that not everyone that dies was hospitalized but hospitalizations have been a very predictive factor as to number of deaths and is a much more reliable and measurable number than number of cases. The 50% increase in hospitalizations in the last 37 days will ultimately mean a 50% increase in number of deaths.

Honestly haven't been following this much, but the sudden reversal in number of hospitalizations on September 20th needs to be examined thoroughly.

I would be incredibly concerned if the demographics of the people being hospitalized were significantly different than the early months.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

Stay on topic chimp. The hospitalization debate is more than your redundant crap rant about nursing homes. It is about all infections everywhere.

A 10th reminder, however for you
Lighter colors are better.

If you get it, I hope you get put in nursing home.

[ElKabong]

Hcap brings you the news on covid..

https://mobile.twitter.com/TPostMill...32527958466560

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

Hcap brings you the news on covid..

https://mobile.twitter.com/TPostMill...32527958466560

Doom and Gloom's Day is Hcap's specialty. His only one, in fact.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

Maybe. But let's take a closer look.

You and your article don't know how much more. Even if we increase fatalities to 10,000 from the 8,000 they suggest, total deaths is still under 30% of the approx. 34,.000 + people have died of Covid in NYS.

30 % is still much lower than your home state of 46% Texas, and still lower than many other states

how many states have had 34K die?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by davew

how many states have had 34K die?

With a completed Navy Hospital ship, docked in the city, and UNUSED?

Cuomoi- BTK

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It lags by a week or two, but it's massively more accurate than cases.

The real problem is that if a person goes into the hospital with a broken leg, appendicitis, kidney stones or anything else and they give him a Covid that comes up positive, he goes on the hospitalization list even if he's asymptomatic or not really sick enough to be in the hospital for Covid. The hospitals get more for money for Covid patients. So they have an incentive to find and report those cases over and above safety. But if you follow the trend instead of the actual numbers, that's good enough to let you know what's going on.



My point is you never have any idea what you are talking about because you are reading mainstream sources that are incompetent and politically motivated.

The AMA caught up to yours and Trump's despicable bullshit. Curious, do you know any doctors personally? Or maybe you are among the slobbering crowd at the Trump rally below, mouth agape, mesmerized?

At least Trump's bullshit will be gone soon. Won't stop fools from believing it though

American Medical Association rips Trump's claim that doctors inflating COVID numbers
https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...at-doctors-are

The American Medical Association (AMA) on Friday issued a scathing statement condemning President Trump’s claim that doctors are purposefully inflating coronavirus case numbers, calling the suggestion “malicious, outrageous, and completely misguided.”

Trump, while speaking at a rally in Waterford Township, Mich., on Friday, argued without evidence that doctors are improperly counting coronavirus deaths for monetary gain.

"Our doctors get more money if somebody dies from COVID. You know that, right? I mean our doctors are very smart people. So what they do is they say 'I'm sorry but everybody dies of COVID,'" he said.

Twitter

__________________
The inmates have taken over the asylum.

---

Last edited by hcap; 10-31-2020 at 11:41 AM.

[tucker6]

That's absolutely true and you and CNN know it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3000638001/

Provision in the relief act
The coronavirus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by tucker6

That's absolutely true and you and CNN know it.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...us/3000638001/

Provision in the relief act
The coronavirus relief legislation created a 20% premium, or add-on, for COVID-19 Medicare patients.

All I can say is your moron will be gone and then maybe you will snap out of it.

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

All I can say is your moron will be gone and then maybe you will snap out of it.

yes, but 4 years and 3 months will be the death of many before then.

[hcap]

Trump campaign rallies led to more than 30,000 coronavirus cases, Stanford researchers say
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/31/coro...chers-say.html

The researchers found that the rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19. They also concluded that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths, though not necessarily among attendees.

The researchers said the findings support the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of Covid-19 transmission at large group gatherings, “particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low.”

“The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death,” said B. Douglas Bernheim, chairman of Stanford’s economics department and a lead author of the paper, wrote.