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01-04-2022, 10:33 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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help me understand Derby faves
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according to my google search KY Derby faves have won 56 of 146 times or 38.3%
I believe overall in racing the % is about 33%
this factoid about the Derby seems really unlikely to me
of course it could just be a statistical anomaly
but I tend to doubt it
the think that makes it so amazing to me is that there are usually 20 or close to 20 horses in the field
you would think (anyway I would think) that with such large fields the % of winning faves would drop
why didn't the very large fields cause the % to drop?
thanks
.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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01-04-2022, 10:39 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 647
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I believe you will find that overall in racing the percentage of winning favorites is now close to 38%.
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01-04-2022, 10:50 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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according to my google search KY Derby faves have won 56 of 146 times or 38.3%
I believe overall in racing the % is about 33%
this factoid about the Derby seems really unlikely to me
of course it could just be a statistical anomaly
but I tend to doubt it
the think that makes it so amazing to me is that there are usually 20 or close to 20 horses in the field
you would think (anyway I would think) that with such large fields the % of winning faves would drop
why didn't the very large fields cause the % to drop?
thanks
.
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1) It is the most analyzed race in North America, possibly the world.
2) With the prestige of winning comes an all out performance from the trainer and jockey and therefore the horse.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
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01-04-2022, 12:56 PM
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#4
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,086
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It wasn’t always 20 horses 🐎, derby fever pretty much caused the point system. The other thing is there is an ebb and flow to favorites winning. Recently, with the points it’s been kind of chalky. Years ago when any speedball could enter the race would pace melt more than it does now. There was a period when I was younger that the chalk was practically a toss.
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01-04-2022, 01:32 PM
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#5
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velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,278
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The average 'capper is overwhelmed by recency...Many winners did not win their last outing before the big dance.
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
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01-04-2022, 01:36 PM
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#6
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,825
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
The average 'capper is overwhelmed by recency...Many winners did not win their last outing before the big dance.
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Isn't that the opposite of the original poster's point? It doesn't seem like bettors have been overwhelmed at all by the Derby.
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01-04-2022, 02:38 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 7,331
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Isn't that the opposite of the original poster's point? It doesn't seem like bettors have been overwhelmed at all by the Derby.
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Not only that, the majority of recent winners entered the Derby off a win.
Accuracy is rarely a prerequisite.
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01-04-2022, 02:47 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4,284
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Way back in the day.
There were many very short price favorites and many very short fields.
__________________
"Just because she's a hitter and a thief doesn't mean she's not a good woman in all the other places" Mayrose Prizzi
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01-04-2022, 03:06 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burnsy
It wasn’t always 20 horses , derby fever pretty much caused the point system. The other thing is there is an ebb and flow to favorites winning. Recently, with the points it’s been kind of chalky. Years ago when any speedball could enter the race would pace melt more than it does now. There was a period when I was younger that the chalk was practically a toss.
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I was under the impression that the point system is the reason the race is so warped as of recent.
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01-04-2022, 07:15 PM
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#10
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,063
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Warped? How so?
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01-04-2022, 08:07 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Long Island, NY
Posts: 753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rastajenk
Warped? How so?
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In that it changed the type of horses that ran in it. I mean I'm just basically agreeing with the quote in the post. Maybe warped is a poor choice of word on my part.
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