Belmont Stakes

[Robert Fischer]

No. 1 Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche) 15-1

No. 2 Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Luis Saez) 2-1

No. 3 Rombauer (Michael McCarthy, John Velazquez) 3-1

No. 4 Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O'Neill, Flavien Prat) 7-2

No. 5 France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori, Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1

No. 6 Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1

No. 7 Rock Your World (John Sadler, Joel Rosario) 9-2

No. 8 Overtook (Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco) 20-1

Looks about as good as you can expect. Somewhat competitive. Five horses seem to have a real shot.


will record a segment w/ Triple Clowns, Wednesday

[garywpt]

Read an article about dosage and how it used to be a big handicapping factor but not so much anymore. Gave a nice stat for this Saturdays Belmont stakes. In the last 16 Belmont Stakes races only 1 winner had a dosage of 3 or higher the other 15 winners had a dosage below 3!!! Three horses have a dosage below 3 they are Known Agenda 1.44 Rombauer 1.86 & Rock Your World 2.20

[minethatbird08]

Race looks competitive but I’m not that interested in it from a betting standpoint.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by garywpt

Read an article about dosage and how it used to be a big handicapping factor but not so much anymore. Gave a nice stat for this Saturdays Belmont stakes. In the last 16 Belmont Stakes races only 1 winner had a dosage of 3 or higher the other 15 winners had a dosage below 3!!! Three horses have a dosage below 3 they are Known Agenda 1.44 Rombauer 1.86 & Rock Your World 2.20

I don't know too much about dosage.

Read it when I look up a horse's pedigree. On the one that wasn't, - I think that has to be "American Pharoah" 4.33. I guess you have to be careful with a Baffert or Cox, etc... horse, if they figure to contend and get fair trip.

The 3 you mention, seem solid to my handicapping /distance guess.

right on the fringe of your rule Bourbonic 3.00! Both Known Agenda 1.44 and Bourbonic can get a dirt route, and both have nice Jockeys who will try to pick up any pieces that the race brings back to them.

Rock Your World 2.20 is going to be on or near the lead. That will give him a chance to run his race. Has to keep his momentum going around that far turn and into the top of the stretch. That's one of the things his performance will hinge on.

[zico20]

You can toss they suck. That leaves you with five horses to run in the superfecta. If you have a strong opinion on which one won't be there then money can be made or if you like a horse to win key that one on top with the other four. There doesn't seem like there will be a horse under 2-1 so the super will pay decent.

[biggestal99]

Essential quality ain’t losing this race.

He will stalk and pounce.

And that will be that.

Allan

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I don't know too much about dosage.

Read it when I look up a horse's pedigree. On the one that wasn't, - I think that has to be "American Pharoah" 4.33. I guess you have to be careful with a Baffert or Cox, etc... horse, if they figure to contend and get fair trip.

The 3 you mention, seem solid to my handicapping /distance guess.

right on the fringe of your rule Bourbonic 3.00! Both Known Agenda 1.44 and Bourbonic can get a dirt route, and both have nice Jockeys who will try to pick up any pieces that the race brings back to them.

Rock Your World 2.20 is going to be on or near the lead. That will give him a chance to run his race. Has to keep his momentum going around that far turn and into the top of the stretch. That's one of the things his performance will hinge on.

Eq also a 3.

Allan

[Hoops McCann]

picking Hot Rod

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by garywpt

Read an article about dosage and how it used to be a big handicapping factor but not so much anymore. Gave a nice stat for this Saturdays Belmont stakes. In the last 16 Belmont Stakes races only 1 winner had a dosage of 3 or higher the other 15 winners had a dosage below 3!!! Three horses have a dosage below 3 they are Known Agenda 1.44 Rombauer 1.86 & Rock Your World 2.20

IMO, dosage went from overly hyped to overly criticized. It's a stat based on the results of races that's trying to determine the distance preference of horses. It's not a magic formula for picking winners.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO, dosage went from overly hyped to overly criticized. It's a stat based on the results of races that's trying to determine the distance preference of horses. It's not a magic formula for picking winners.

Exactly. I still have mild success betting against high DI horses stretching out. the figures/index has some utility. It's not and was never intended to be the be all end all.

As far as the Belmont goes, hard not to like EQ. He probably fetched the biggest TG in Derby and is fresh here. The race has been very kind to Tapit line over the past decade. Hot Rod has a style that plays well, Rombauer seems to be getting better each out, Known Agenda and Rock could be in line for bounce back, and I wouldn't dismiss Overtook who is improving under the radar coming out of an often underrated Belmont prep.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Essential quality ain’t losing this race.

He will stalk and pounce.

And that will be that.

Allan

Did they move the race to Keenland ?

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Essential quality ain’t losing this race.

He will stalk and pounce.

And that will be that.

Allan

That's how I see it, Al.

Rock Your World will try to wire the field. I don't like his footwork. I don't like that his one big dirt effort was a speed-favoring race where Medina Spirit (not really a 'gear' horse) couldn't flash a huge gear, so he waltzed, while not tiring like some of the star trainer's prodigy. He's somewhat of a threat, and horses wire every day to outrun their expected speed. Tackled far turn or entering stretch. Could be off the board, could run 2nd/3rd if speed-favoring stagger-fest.

EQ looks like a very likely winner, in my opinion.

Then you got Charlie, who seems to be consistent. I think he saves ground forward, and hopes to herd EQ.

Rombauer is a slight threat (maybe more than Charlie?) to win, if he turns out to be a peaking star, but he feels more a horse that can hit the board if he runs another good race.

- That far turn - that can be a place where jockeys charge up the rail with reckless abandon. Good place for Rombauer, but he's trying to contend. I could see a horse like Known Agenda try to establish a board spot (3rd/4th?) with Irad getting rights to that lane and progressing up through any bunching mid-pack rivals.

Worth a dime Su? - Japanese shipper FRANCE GO DE INA is interesting to me as a 3rd/4th in a dime. I've been watching and noticing Japan well represented internationally for a while now. Some by this same trainer. This horse broke a step slow in Dubai. Then shipped back to Japan, and over to Baltimore. A lot of adversity even once he arrived. Jockey fell off during the one breeze. Was reluctant to load, and then was 'rank', while flashing decent pace, but doing no running for the 2nd half of the race.
It is very unlikely that this horse is anywhere near as fast as the top contenders in here, but I don't know that he's not fast enough to get 3rd or 4th. Not a huge field with 8 horses, and this horse took fan? money in Preakness to be lower than he should. -If he's not a LONG shot, not interested.

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

That's how I see it, Al.

Rock Your World will try to wire the field. I don't like his footwork. I don't like that his one big dirt effort was a speed-favoring race where Medina Spirit (not really a 'gear' horse) couldn't flash a huge gear, so he waltzed, while not tiring like some of the star trainer's prodigy. He's somewhat of a threat, and horses wire every day to outrun their expected speed. Tackled far turn or entering stretch. Could be off the board, could run 2nd/3rd if speed-favoring stagger-fest.

EQ looks like a very likely winner, in my opinion.

Then you got Charlie, who seems to be consistent. I think he saves ground forward, and hopes to herd EQ.

Rombauer is a slight threat (maybe more than Charlie?) to win, if he turns out to be a peaking star, but he feels more a horse that can hit the board if he runs another good race.

- That far turn - that can be a place where jockeys charge up the rail with reckless abandon. Good place for Rombauer, but he's trying to contend. I could see a horse like Known Agenda try to establish a board spot (3rd/4th?) with Irad getting rights to that lane and progressing up through any bunching mid-pack rivals.

Worth a dime Su? - Japanese shipper FRANCE GO DE INA is interesting to me as a 3rd/4th in a dime. I've been watching and noticing Japan well represented internationally for a while now. Some by this same trainer. This horse broke a step slow in Dubai. Then shipped back to Japan, and over to Baltimore. A lot of adversity even once he arrived. Jockey fell off during the one breeze. Was reluctant to load, and then was 'rank', while flashing decent pace, but doing no running for the 2nd half of the race.
It is very unlikely that this horse is anywhere near as fast as the top contenders in here, but I don't know that he's not fast enough to get 3rd or 4th. Not a huge field with 8 horses, and this horse took fan? money in Preakness to be lower than he should. -If he's not a LONG shot, not interested.

I totally agree. Rock Your World seems to be a miler who is just hoping others don't run and hang on. Prat is jumping to Hot Rod, so I will not neglect this choice and its suggestions, beyond the fact that HRC has run well even against Essential Quality.

Known Agenda is the horse at distance that could surprise, with the proper breeding and a generally weird race that the Belmont presents.

While Essential Quality will likely win, I'll just be playing exotics and horizontals, which will focus on the

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Did they move the race to Keenland ?

That was good.

[CheckMark]

for me