Pizzolla sets "Rock your World" at 25/1 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

porchy44 · 04-29-2021, 10:20 PM

Michael Pizzolla 2021 Kentucky Derby Valuecapping rant.

Michael Pizzolla has set an oddsline that has 13 horses at a better chance of winning the Derby than "Rock Your World". Because "his numbers are so weak".

I dont pretend to understand Valuecapping but I thought he was the only horse to post a triple-digit Beyer.

Thoughts?
see 29:36 into video.

NorCalGreg · 04-29-2021, 10:45 PM

My only take was, as age creeps up on Mike P. -- dude can still wear the hell out of a suit.

Johnny V · 04-30-2021, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

My only take was, as age creeps up on Mike P. -- dude can still wear the hell out of a suit.

He does have a certain amount of class to him, I'll say that much for Pizzolla. Thanks for posting the video, Porchy.

f2tornado · 04-30-2021, 10:14 AM

Was fun watching that video. Excellent share. Looks like he's in the EQ camp. Also in the strong Louisiana Derby camp.

BlueChip@DRF · 04-30-2021, 10:30 AM

Where can I get 25/1 on Rock Your World?

cj · 04-30-2021, 10:46 AM

Yeah, he may not bet him, but he certainly wouldn't book bets on him at 25-1.

classhandicapper · 04-30-2021, 10:55 AM

I see Rock Your World as a kind of all or nothing horse. He's either overrated because he took advantage of a good rail and speed bias at SA or he's the best horse coming in. It depends on your view of how the track was playing on SA Derby day. Some people have a strong opinion it was biased. Some people think it was honest. And then there's guys like me that don't see things like biases as black or white. I see them as probabilities because I'm rarely sure one way or the other.

capitalman · 04-30-2021, 10:24 PM

I think it was biased and I think Rock Your World is the best horse.

The bigger question is what will Churchill be on Saturday. If it's fair RYW wires the field or sits close enough to be in front a few lengths at the top of the stretch & pulls away. If it's playing like today, where it appeared to be a closer bias with only one horse winning on the front end, he won't win. I'm hoping that today's bias was caused by the wind & not the track surface. At one point in the broadcast (I'm not sure which one since I was watching both the NBC & track feeds) someone said it was so windy they were afraid something might fly off a patron & get in a horse's way. My guess is they were thinking about hats flying off peoples heads.

I have 2 bets, a win bet on Rock Your World & an across the board bet on Dynamic One.

I think the slow numbers that the video is referring to is the sheets. Both Thorograph & Ragozin have RYW too slow. They hate RYW, but love DO.

Speed Figure · 04-30-2021, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by capitalman

I think it was biased and I think Rock Your World is the best horse.

The bigger question is what will Churchill be on Saturday. If it's fair RYW wires the field or sits close enough to be in front a few lengths at the top of the stretch & pulls away. If it's playing like today, where it appeared to be a closer bias with only one horse winning on the front end, he won't win. I'm hoping that today's bias was caused by the wind & not the track surface. At one point in the broadcast (I'm not sure which one since I was watching both the NBC & track feeds) someone said it was so windy they were afraid something might fly off a patron & get in a horse's way. My guess is they were thinking about hats flying off peoples heads.

I have 2 bets, a win bet on Rock Your World & an across the board bet on Dynamic One.

I think the slow numbers that the video is referring to is the sheets. Both Thorograph & Ragozin have RYW too slow. They hate RYW, but love DO.

The numbers he's referring to are his own "Master Pace Ratings" it has nothing to do with Thorograph or the Sheets.

thaskalos · 05-01-2021, 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

The numbers he's referring to are his own "Master Pace Ratings" it has nothing to do with Thorograph or the Sheets.

So...Pizzola's "Master Pace Ratings" list O Besos as a faster horse than Rock Your World? And this man asks to be taken seriously?

mhaney0423 · 05-01-2021, 05:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

So...Pizzola's "Master Pace Ratings" list O Besos as a faster horse than Rock Your World? And this man asks to be taken seriously?

The problem is RYW only really has one race with which to make a reliable pace figure, which was the SA Derby (his other 2 wins being on Turf). The final time of that race is only 11th or 12th best SA Derby time since 2000. RYW faced only maiden winners in this race save for Medina Spirit who was declining in Speed Figs and MP figures coming into this race.

I dont think it is a stretch to say there are a lot of question marks with this one. Valuecapper is a program and it makes figures based on programming rules and in this case it did not see the SA Derby as being that fast. Does the make Pizzolla an idiot....OF COURSE NOT.

I will say that RYW appears as the Fulcrum in this race, and for me that is an automatic include in the exotics. As someone who uses Valuecapper, RYW will be in all of my exotic bets at all positions. Already had him and Highly Motivated keyed all over the OAKS/DERBY double but unfortunately the favorite won the OAKS so I dont stand to make much there.

I would also say that the Derby was viewed by VAluecapper with a "LATE BIAS" and rightfully so, if I switch the Bias to Early RYW makes it into the ARC albeit 7th.

f2tornado · 05-01-2021, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

So...Pizzola's "Master Pace Ratings" list O Besos as a faster horse than Rock Your World? And this man asks to be taken seriously?

Louisiana Derby figures come in high depending on what source you prefer. Small sample size, but perhaps Travel Column and Clariere underwhelming in the Oaks expose that card a bit (On a side note, I can kick myself for not playing the best LP horses underneath that made a decent Oaks tri payoff). I was already skeptical of LA Derby after seeing three horses with some of the highest figures that were previously beat with horses that got lower figures in final prep. With that in mind, I'm not so high on Besos but wouldn't be totally shocked it he passed the Rock at some point late. I won't bet it at the window but would be open to a prop wager at, say, 10-1 on that outcome. It's not like the SA Derby spit out comparatively phenomenal figures to totally laugh off the possibility.

Pizzola's numbers suggest a stronger Bluegrass. Some figure makers were less generous on Bluegrass card such as Brisnet giving Malathaat a 93 in Ashland and Beyer a 97 for EQ.

If, and it's a big if, the Derby flows like the bulk of Oaks card then Rock is in trouble.

thaskalos · 05-01-2021, 01:02 PM

His race analysis leaves me dissatisfied. If he thinks that RYW rode a "golden rail" in the SA...then say THAT. Don't just shrug the horse off by saying that "his figures are weak"...because such a flip comment confuses Pizzola's non-subscribing viewers, to whom these videos seem to be mainly directed. "Was the speed figure of the SA Derby weak, from a historical perspective?"...is not a serious handicapping question to ask, IMO. The much better question is..."Will a repeat of the SA speed rating win this year's Kentucky Derby?". And I think the answer to that is "YES!".

That said...Pizzola looks like a nice enough guy, and he seems quite generous with his time. But there is a "lawyer-ish" feel to him, IMO. He somehow manages to say less in an hour than Andy Serling says in 10 minutes.

pandy · 05-01-2021, 02:09 PM

I thought the track seemed to be favoring speed that day, but I still think that Rock Your World looked like a top colt. There have been a lot of speed horses that went wire to wire or pressed the pace over speed favoring tracks at Santa Anita, going back decades, that shipped to other tracks that weren't as speed friendly and won. Timeform has Rock Your World as the top figure 123, Beyer has the colt has the only triple-digit Beyer in the race.

Your evaluation of Rock Your World may partly hinge on how good you think Medina Spirit is. Life Is Good clearly was the fastest 3yo this year and probably would have won another Derby for Baffert if he hadn't gotten hurt. Medina Spirit finished a close second to Life Is Good in the Sham, and finished 2nd to Life Is Good in the San Felipe. So if not for Life Is Good, Medina Spirit would have four wins and a second. His figures are consistent and his Timeform Figures are the best in the race, with the exception of Rock This World's Santa Anita.

classhandicapper · 05-01-2021, 02:59 PM

Dream Shake's effort in the Pat Day helps verify the quality of the SA Derby.