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12-22-2021, 03:43 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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several storms forecasted- will Santa Anita open on time?
We have several storms coming into Southern California starting tomorrow. It's going to be a wet Christmas. And though the chance of rain for Arcadia is forecast at 12% on 12/26, that number is higher in the rest of the region.
We know how Santa Anita feels about off tracks these days. OTOH, December 26 is always one of their biggest days of the year. Will they open on schedule? And will they open for Day 2 as an additional storm is forecast to come through on 12/27?
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12-22-2021, 04:54 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,800
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I'm driving up Christmas night and staying for a couple days. Imagine the surface will be a little wet Sunday and Monday. May have a turf race or two altered as well. Looking forward to it.
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12-22-2021, 06:55 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 997
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If there is any substantial rain forecasted for Monday 12/27, I think they’ll cancel and move that card to Thursday 12/30.
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12-22-2021, 07:00 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Gobbi
If there is any substantial rain forecasted for Monday 12/27, I think they’ll cancel and move that card to Thursday 12/30.
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As of now, it's 69% for Arcadia, including steady rain in the morning and showers later on in the day.
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12-22-2021, 08:36 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
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atmospheric rivers dump quite a bit of water over those areas under the stream.
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12-22-2021, 10:02 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
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With weather satellites (data and imagery) it's easy to know the what - in this case a low pressure system.
But it's tough to make accurate predictions several days out about where and when a moving system is going to be.
The slightest course change now can result in a slowly moving weather system ending up hundreds of miles away from where you originally thought it would be.
But as time shrinks - the accuracy of where, and when goes up substantially.
That said, pinging a weather api that I use with gps coordinates for the Santa Anita finish line, along with time of day (I used 4pm) along with the requested dates Wed 12-22-2021, Thur 12-23-2021, Fri 12-24-2021, Sat 12-25-2021, and a request code for map type:
The api returned map images for Wed 12-22-2021, Thur 12-23-2021, Fri 12-24-2021, Sat 12-25-2021, and Sun 12-26-2021. (See thumbnails below.)
That said, based on past experience, if I were to wait until Saturday night and ping the api again - I'd say there's a 95% chance I'd be looking at a very accurate map for opening day (Sunday.)
-jp
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12-23-2021, 07:00 AM
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#7
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Just Deplorable
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lebanon, Ohio
Posts: 8,064
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12-23-2021, 10:50 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
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Right now the bulk of the rain is well to the north (stretching from out over the Pacific to Sacramento and beyond.)
By 10 pm tonight the models have Arcadia right in the thick of it (with up to 2 inches of measurable rain.)
See clickable thumbnails below.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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12-23-2021, 01:39 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,736
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Raining pretty steady about 25 miles west of Arcadia.
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12-23-2021, 02:31 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 371
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Its light rain right now not going to make a significant impact.
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12-23-2021, 03:37 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 997
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
As of now, it's 69% for Arcadia, including steady rain in the morning and showers later on in the day.
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Weather Channel now says an inch of rain is possible for Monday
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12-23-2021, 05:09 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 371
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Guess I spoke too soon...its coming down steadily the past couple of hours....if it keeps at this for a couple of days I could see them delaying opening day.
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12-23-2021, 05:45 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
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Revised Forecast
Current models now predicting about 1.3 inches of rain in the immediate vicinity of Santa Anita by 10:00 pm tonight (as opposed to the earlier prediction of up to 2 inches by then.)
see clickable thumbnail.
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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12-23-2021, 05:48 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Ketchikan,AK
Posts: 2,086
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Stockton got pummeled. I had to shut the project down.
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12-23-2021, 06:09 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,287
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Revised Forecast
Current models now have the system lingering in the Arcadia area overnight - possibly reaching 2 inches of accumulated rain since Thurs morning sometime between 5 am and 6 am Fri morning.
clickable thumbnail below
-jp
.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
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