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12-06-2021, 06:29 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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interesting post potential edge from other forum
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Tampa 11/24 race 4 the fave Super Edgar - 2.90/1 - broke thru the gate and wasn't scratched - he reloaded (chart linked)
poster loaded up big and bet against him somewhere and cleaned up
2 interesting points (to me anyway)
he says track should have scratched him
when this happens he says its great for someone to go against the fave
other posters on this forum agreed
also, do you think fave acting up before loading but not this extreme calls for a bet against him?
I don't make a lot of very late bets but I think it's possible at many tracks before they're all in line
comments? you guys are the real experts
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https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...21&cy=USA&rn=4
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believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 12-06-2021 at 06:36 AM.
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12-06-2021, 05:40 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: near Lone Star Park
Posts: 5,152
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I think you should have a solid understanding of physicality handicapping before putting in any serious money (whatever that means to YOU) based on a horse's appearance or actions, whether it is loading into the gates or otherwise. I've also seen horses break through the gate and win, though that isn't what usually happens. If a horse were to break through the gate before I have bet, I probably would not bet the race because it is just too risky both ways.
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Ranch West
Equine Performance Analyst, Quick Grid Software
Last edited by ranchwest; 12-06-2021 at 05:42 PM.
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12-13-2021, 03:09 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
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it probably lowers the win percentage some, but they still win
usually those that break through the gate are fast starters anyway
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12-25-2021, 02:06 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 4,666
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Most slow breakers, the habitual kind, that is, misbehave in and around the gate. Thus, if I knew to begin with that the favorite had gate issues, I would stand pat-whatever my locked in course of action-or non-action. Should the incident be uncharacteristic of the chalk, however, a sharp player might capitalize with quick action.
Ironically enough, given an intervening vet-exam and a moment to chill, the bad actor's chances of breaking atypically well probably improve by virtue of the incident. Consider the old adage about "the squeaky wheel." An official starter usually takes extra pains get a horse away well that has delayed the proceedings.
My post does not relate to instances of extreme misbehavior.
Last edited by mountainman; 12-25-2021 at 02:08 PM.
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12-25-2021, 04:14 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,541
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It's definitely a net-negative, with that said nothing is going to be 100% foolproof. When I played full time there was an old warhorse from FL named Mt. Rushmore, used to visibly limp into the winners circle. Some horses are game no matter what.
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12-25-2021, 04:25 PM
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#6
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,815
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
It's definitely a net-negative, with that said nothing is going to be 100% foolproof. When I played full time there was an old warhorse from FL named Mt. Rushmore, used to visibly limp into the winners circle. Some horses are game no matter what.
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I remember him, I've horses vanned off that looked sounder. We had one old warrior who used to stand perfectly still in the paddock with his eyes closed. I swear you could hear him snoring!  But when the gate opened, has hell bent for the lead and looked like Dr. Fager.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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12-25-2021, 04:30 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,541
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
I remember him, I've horses vanned off that looked sounder. We had one old warrior who used to stand perfectly still in the paddock with his eyes closed. I swear you could hear him snoring! But when the gate opened, has hell bent for the lead and looked like Dr. Fager. |
Ahh, the good old days. Merry Christmas to you sir. Raising my rum and egg nog toasting both to you and Sagely, racing definitely needs more Sagely's. We need 8 year old kids at their local track cheering on Sagely after the $2 win bet grandma put in for them.
Last edited by MJC922; 12-25-2021 at 04:38 PM.
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12-25-2021, 10:43 PM
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#8
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,815
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SAGELY!
What a horse! Crowd loved him, Silver Fir, 15 yo who kept winning, and of course, Mountain Man!
What I wouldn't give for one more of those days at the thumb! Stands full, you had to have someone save your seats, Ross Morton yelling "Here comes Sagely, he's going to do it again!"
Merry Christmas, ! toast my CC & Ginger to your rum & nogg!
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 12-25-2021 at 10:51 PM.
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12-26-2021, 04:01 AM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MJC922
It's definitely a net-negative, with that said nothing is going to be 100% foolproof. When I played full time there was an old warhorse from FL named Mt. Rushmore, used to visibly limp into the winners circle. Some horses are game no matter what.
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Correct. I see a horse I bet go though the gate. I automatically cancel my bet. Sure they win occasionally but usually it saves money in the long term.
When I used to bet the exchange, it was easy money to bet against such horse.
Allan
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