Whales: A Little Back Story (blog post)

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I wasn’t in any means talking about your post! I was just talking about the word proprietary.

Your fine, Speed Figure. I just wanted to clarify.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A few years ago, Teddy, after a long absence, returned to this board and told us that he struck it rich by selling cheap Chinese merchandise online, out of his mother's basement. And I believe him. Teddy is a rich man...but his fortune has come from outside of this game.

Rich can be defined many ways...Lets just say comfortable. But it was funny to read them slam my exacta play thats not doing well. I bet I have lost a million easily in my life on ponies.. My flat bet win was in one category and that was exactas over 15 years....So Yes I believe its probably your best chance to beat the ponies. And that is with about 8 to 10 percent rebates. Thus I want to try to do better. Just for fun u guys. The whales I knew did exactas..... Tri...

I wish anyone luck in the game. Surely some of you can get together and combine forces to make it efficient. Nothing I have said was exaggerated ever btw.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by teddy

Rich can be defined many ways...Lets just say comfortable. But it was funny to read them slam my exacta play thats not doing well. I bet I have lost a million easily in my life on ponies.. My flat bet win was in one category and that was exactas over 15 years....So Yes I believe its probably your best chance to beat the ponies. And that is with about 8 to 10 percent rebates. Thus I want to try to do better. Just for fun u guys. The whales I knew did exactas..... Tri...

I wish anyone luck in the game. Surely some of you can get together and combine forces to make it efficient. Nothing I have said was exaggerated ever btw.

Teddy...I don't know why, but I believe everything that you've told us here. I like to think that I can spot a bullshitter from a mile away...but I can sense no deceit in you whatsoever.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by teddy

Rich can be defined many ways...Lets just say comfortable. But it was funny to read them slam my exacta play thats not doing well. I bet I have lost a million easily in my life on ponies.. My flat bet win was in one category and that was exactas over 15 years....So Yes I believe its probably your best chance to beat the ponies. And that is with about 8 to 10 percent rebates. Thus I want to try to do better. Just for fun u guys. The whales I knew did exactas..... Tri...

I wish anyone luck in the game. Surely some of you can get together and combine forces to make it efficient. Nothing I have said was exaggerated ever btw.

No one slammed your exacta play. I pointed out the contradiction that you claimed you played with all of these high rollers and made all this money, when in November 2021 your ideas are at this level:

Win position should be a horse ml under 5 to one
Must be in PP 1234
Must not be the ML Favorite
Should be in your softwares top 3 picks.


The place horse is opposite running style.

What do you think?

Does. Not. Compute.

Other than that, another thread that makes the reader want to log off and never come back.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Teddy...I don't know why, but I believe everything that you've told us here. I like to think that I can spot a bullshitter from a mile away...but I can sense no deceit in you whatsoever.

What are you even talking about? The point was he was this big money-making whale 30 years ago, and now he doesn't know how to bet an exacta. That makes no sense. You coming along to fellate him is wonderful, but just get a room next time.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by castaway01

What are you even talking about? The point was he was this big money-making whale 30 years ago, and now he doesn't know how to bet an exacta. That makes no sense. You coming along to fellate him is wonderful, but just get a room next time.

I did not see where he said he was ever a money making whale, he said he was in the room with them, might have even said something about his brother. He did say hit hit an 80k pick 5 this year, which is not unbelievable at all, he may have lost 150k betting pick 5s this year he never said.
At any rate, the man didnt say anything unbelievable to me. The propensity to jump on people and make a liar of them is part of the reason the horse racinmg part of this forum seems to be about half as active as the political (Off Topic) side. People just dont want the hassle.

[Red Knave]

Originally Posted by teddy

I bet I have lost a million easily in my life on ponies

What I immediately thought when I read this was Mickey Rooney's line
"I lost a $2 bet 65 years ago and have spent about $3 million trying to get it back"
That I understand.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by castaway01

What are you even talking about? The point was he was this big money-making whale 30 years ago, and now he doesn't know how to bet an exacta. That makes no sense. You coming along to fellate him is wonderful, but just get a room next time.

What am I talking about? I've been on this board a long time, and have gotten in plenty of arguments here because I never could pick up the habit of "fellating" other posters. Teddy is no liar...of that I am sure. As I said...I can spot a bullshitter from a mile away.

[dnlgfnk]

I'm sure Teddy's a great guy and thought he witnessed something, but the daily maneuvering regarding track biases is spurious.
I have spent 40 years comparing and contrasting odds rank to finish position regarding pace and position on the track, and arrived at the profitable understanding that there is a subtle, inherent, uniform bias to racetracks that influences, but doesn't dictate performances. The best, but far from only opportunities are when a horse switches scenarios with a previous opponent(s) at appetizing odds, while incorporating running style and today's potential race dynamics.

The narrative about daily front/back, in/out biases cannot be true.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

I'm sure Teddy's a great guy and thought he witnessed something, but the daily maneuvering regarding track biases is spurious.
I have spent 40 years comparing and contrasting odds rank to finish position regarding pace and position on the track, and arrived at the profitable understanding that there is a subtle, inherent, uniform bias to racetracks that influences, but doesn't dictate performances. The best, but far from only opportunities are when a horse switches scenarios with a previous opponent(s) at appetizing odds, while incorporating running style and today's potential race dynamics.

The narrative about daily front/back, in/out biases cannot be true.

I too have spent 40 years analyzing different aspects of this game. And I have yet to determine what the "best opportunities" are when it comes to the profitable understanding of this exhilarating but also maddening pursuit. Perhaps if I give it a little more time...

[teddy]

Originally Posted by castaway01

No one slammed your exacta play. I pointed out the contradiction that you claimed you played with all of these high rollers and made all this money, when in November 2021 your ideas are at this level:

Win position should be a horse ml under 5 to one
Must be in PP 1234
Must not be the ML Favorite
Should be in your softwares top 3 picks.


The place horse is opposite running style.

What do you think?

Does. Not. Compute.

Other than that, another thread that makes the reader want to log off and never come back.

Oh I have changed things... now I am using the top play and handicapping my second slot horses. Reversing some ..... Work in progress guys.. haha. It is going to pop some thousand dollar races sooner or later and that will be a lot of the profits. Or it will get killed some days. Im moving my business this week so I will be tight on play time.

THIS IS NOT THE WHALES PLAY!!!.. THEY HAD THE BIAS NUMBERS NOBODY HAD. THEY PLAYED MAYBE 2 TRACKS. USUALLY ONE WITH BIG POOLS LIKE CD.

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I too have spent 40 years analyzing different aspects of this game. And I have yet to determine what the "best opportunities" are when it comes to the profitable understanding of this exhilarating but also maddening pursuit. Perhaps if I give it a little more time...

The bulk of my years were spent looking for the best horse in light of my trip factors. The latter third of those years has been spent in the discovery that I must use my factors to downgrade horses in odds order, looking at every horse negatively in terms of potential pace and position, beginning with the favorite. Opportunities emerge from that.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I too have spent 40 years analyzing different aspects of this game. And I have yet to determine what the "best opportunities" are when it comes to the profitable understanding of this exhilarating but also maddening pursuit. Perhaps if I give it a little more time...

I think its exactas ... my tiny profit was based on 12 years and millions of dollars of play. With huge rebates like 9 percent. I think you have to play them dutch.

[teddy]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

The bulk of my years were spent looking for the best horse in light of my trip factors. The latter third of those years has been spent in the discovery that I must use my factors to downgrade horses in odds order, looking at every horse negatively in terms of potential pace and position, beginning with the favorite. Opportunities emerge from that.

Some of these computer programs out now give an odds line on tvg... maybe they are crunching thousands of races . Worth a shot to eliminate horses overbet?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

I've seen guys use the word "proprietary" to try and make it look like there software program is really doing something special! when in reality it's doing nothing, but adding this with this to create an illusion like this rating is exclusive!

I think proprietary computer calculations can be extremely powerful. I have no idea what whales are doing, never known one.