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03-12-2021, 12:16 PM
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#61
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by davew
I am curious if you are making these plays or just theoretical? If not making plays, do you recalculate pool after your bets and effect on pay-offs to get new winning pay?
A $200 cold exacta will effect a $12000 pool.
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I'm not betting. If I can become very comfortable with the plays, and perhaps actually bet, I would have to consider the point you make about impacting the pool. I'm sure I can work that out, it's just a matter of locating the decimal point  .
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-16-2021, 02:32 PM
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#62
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Code:
Mahoning Valley* Race 5 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 9 10 2 probability 63%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
9 ---- 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
42 0.00 13.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.02 15.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-16-2021, 02:35 PM
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#63
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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9/1 exacta wins
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-17-2021, 05:57 PM
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#64
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
Turf Paradise* Race 4
2 8
un un ov 0v
8 0 82 0 82
2 65 0 65 0
4 35 18 35 18
1 0 0 0 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-17-2021, 06:04 PM
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#65
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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7/3 wins
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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03-18-2021, 10:11 AM
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#66
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
UK Doncaster* Race 2 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 3 1 2 probability 55%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0
1 ---- 15 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2 14 ---- 14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
3 17 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
91 30.36 30.14 30.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 181.20
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-01-2021, 06:10 AM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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___________
I'm believe your R.O.I. on your exacta plays would improve on the low odds horses if you do 2 things
I haven't read thru all of your posts but as far as I can tell you have not used these factors
1._______eliminate any race where the fave is odds on - the payouts are too greatly depressed
2.______________consider field size. eliminate 6 or fewer - it is too small and payouts will be depressed too much
________and eliminate 10 or more - it is too large (when using low odds horses) - the risk from a longshot who somehow lucked into an ideal trip is too great
only track races with a field size of 7, 8, or 9
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this is just speculation on my part
nonetheless it is what I strongly believe after having reviewed a great many historical payouts without actually performing a study of them
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 11-01-2021 at 06:18 AM.
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11-01-2021, 10:07 AM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Have you learned anything in the last 20 years posting exacta stuff.... Let us in on your top 5 things to help our play?
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11-01-2021, 10:35 AM
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#69
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
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I'm believe your R.O.I. on your exacta plays would improve on the low odds horses if you do 2 things
I haven't read thru all of your posts but as far as I can tell you have not used these factors
1._______eliminate any race where the fave is odds on - the payouts are too greatly depressed
2.______________consider field size. eliminate 6 or fewer - it is too small and payouts will be depressed too much
________and eliminate 10 or more - it is too large (when using low odds horses) - the risk from a longshot who somehow lucked into an ideal trip is too great
only track races with a field size of 7, 8, or 9
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this is just speculation on my part
nonetheless it is what I strongly believe after having reviewed a great many historical payouts without actually performing a study of them
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I dont think the "public" makes those choices any more "profitable" than other choices. if they did, I would have found it out
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-01-2021, 10:37 AM
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#70
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teddy
Have you learned anything in the last 20 years posting exacta stuff.... Let us in on your top 5 things to help our play?
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I've learned plenty. top thing to watch out for are the wps and exacta boards.
let the public do the handicapping. handicap the public.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 11-01-2021 at 10:42 AM.
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11-01-2021, 11:15 AM
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#71
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
I've learned plenty. top thing to watch out for are the wps and exacta boards.
let the public do the handicapping. handicap the public.
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let me add two additional thoughts
if you base your play on a formula that produces a Play value of 1, and it turns out to be a very big loser, great, then change your play to <>1
also is if your playt produces a value os say 2, and its a big loser, great, then change your play to 1/2 ..good luck
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-01-2021, 02:06 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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__________
the other thing I noticed is this - curious about your view
if the fave comes over the 2nd fave it just about always seems to be a short pay - and to me, not worth betting
what I mean is:
if the fave comes over the 2nd fave who is at 5/2
it will pay disproportionately less than if the fave comes over the 3rd fave at 3/1
for example:
7/5 over the 2nd fave at 5/2 would typically pay $5.50
but 7/5 over the 3rd fave at 3/1 would typically pay $9.50____re a $1.00 payout
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
Last edited by Half Smoke; 11-01-2021 at 02:16 PM.
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11-01-2021, 02:27 PM
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#73
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
__________
the other thing I noticed is this - curious about your view
if the fave comes over the 2nd fave it just about always seems to be a short pay - and to me, not worth betting
what I mean is:
if the fave comes over the 2nd fave who is at 5/2
it will pay disproportionately less than if the fave comes over the 3rd fave at 3/1
for example:
7/5 over the 2nd fave at 5/2 would typically pay $5.50
but 7/5 over the 3rd fave at 3/1 would typically pay $9.50____re a $1.00 payout
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use the attached as a guide to exacta fair value payout.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-01-2021, 06:37 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
I've learned plenty. top thing to watch out for are the wps and exacta boards.
let the public do the handicapping. handicap the public.
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are you saying to look at horses bet hard in the place spot and use that one in your exacta in the place spot??
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11-02-2021, 05:20 AM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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___________
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
EXAMPLE: A HORSE ODDS =2-1, B HORSE ODDS = 3-1, TRACK TAKE OUT IS 15%
A HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(2+1))/1.18 = .282
B HORSE WIN PROBABILITY IS (1/(3+1)/1.18 = .212
PROBABILITY FOR THE A/B COMBINATION IS,
.282 x (.212/(1-.282)) = .083
THAT EQUATES TO A $1 RETURN OF (1/.083)= 12.04
THE FAIR $1 PAYOUT IS $12.04
[/B]
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the linked chart from Brisnet comes to a much different conclusion
according to Brisnet 2/1 over 3/1 has a fair payout of $16 for a $ 2 bet which makes it $ 8.00 for a $ 1.00 bet
http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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