Ticket Construction. The battle of the Pro's vs. On Air Analysts. Who's right?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

Respectfully, whether the message is right or wrong, the delivery is often more important than the message.

Everyone has a choice in their messaging whether they are right and wrong:

The messenger can choose to be be nasty or demeaning in their messaging and right, but may not achieve much because the audience isn't interested in the method of delivery of the message.

The messenger can be humble and wrong and that will fail because the audience will stop following their advice.

The messenger can be nasty or demeaning in their messaging and be wrong and that's the quickest way to lose the audience.

The best choice IMO is to be humble and try to be right, articulating the message it in a positive way and leaving negativity at the door. This method achieves the best results and leaves both the messenger and audience feeling the best of all.

I've been watching lifetime losers posing as and believing they are wagering experts lure new customers to the cliff and then throw them over repeatedly for 30 years....All these wagering experts believe they are experts because they convinced some moron who knows nothing about wagering to hire them and pay them to be wagering experts.

I'm sorry if I don't want to stand at the bottom of the canyon watching customer after customer falling to their death and me saying "excuse me Mr. or Mrs. Wagering Expert...could you pretty please not throw racing's customers over the cliff any more....thank you"

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I've been watching lifetime losers posing as and believing they are wagering experts lure new customers to the cliff and then throw them over repeatedly for 30 years....All these wagering experts believe they are experts because they convinced some moron who knows nothing about wagering to hire them and pay them to be wagering experts.

I'm sorry if I don't want to stand at the bottom of the canyon watching customer after customer falling to their death and me saying "excuse me Mr. or Mrs. Wagering Expert...could you pretty please not throw racing's customers over the cliff any more....thank you"

If you have testimonials from racing fans they will never bet again or have no interest in racing because of what any tv or online analyst said or wrote please share because I think everyone on PA would love to see it.

The statements about customers falling to their death (suggesting they went broke and will never bet again) are like a political pundit saying voters stayed away from the polls because an another pundit stated none of the candidates were worth voting for. It can't be proven. Even polling may not work because people say they are going to do something (not vote) then go and do it anyway, or vice versa. Even if voting was down the suggestion 'A' or 'B' was the cause is only supposition. It is not proof of causation. The same goes for tying handle to any particular action or set of actions on the part of analysts.

Having an opinion your way is better and another person's is not as good is fine, and using that opinion to form a plan for helping fans and bettors is even better. The fan is better served by showing them what you want to show them and letting the negativity and sarcasm for online and tv analysts fall to the wayside.

I wish you all the best in those endeavors.

[turfnsport]

Originally Posted by ubercapper

If you have testimonials from racing fans they will never bet again or have no interest in racing because of what any tv or online analyst said or wrote please share because I think everyone on PA would love to see it.

The statements about customers falling to their death (suggesting they went broke and will never bet again) are like a political pundit saying voters stayed away from the polls because an another pundit stated none of the candidates were worth voting for. It can't be proven. Even polling may not work because people say they are going to do something (not vote) then go and do it anyway, or vice versa. Even if voting was down the suggestion 'A' or 'B' was the cause is only supposition. It is not proof of causation. The same goes for tying handle to any particular action or set of actions on the part of analysts.

Having an opinion your way is better and another person's is not as good is fine, and using that opinion to form a plan for helping fans and bettors is even better. The fan is better served by showing them what you want to show them and letting the negativity and sarcasm for online and tv analysts fall to the wayside.

I wish you all the best in those endeavors.

You are naïve if you think there has not been hundreds or maybe thousands of newbies over the years that discovered TVG, dropped a couple of deposits into their accounts and went belly up after all they were told was to bet on caveman Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets and Jackpot bets. Same goes for several of the amateurs calling themselves "experts" that the industry has embraced on Twitter handing out ridiculous Pick 4 and Pick 5 plays five or six times a day. These newbies are chewed up and spit out, they never learn the proper way to wager. This is what ITP is basically so vocal about. But yeah, let's shoot the messenger because he is so "mean" and does not sugar coat things.

[sharkey11]

im not understanding this thread . first of all why would anyone bet on something they heard or saw from someone who is a track employee most of the time these picks will be underlays and why wouldnt they do there own reserch on a race and bet and win or lose on there picks wich may or not be overlays in a race ! rember this is parimutle betting aganst each other so why would some one help them

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

You are naïve if you think there has not been hundreds or maybe thousands of newbies over the years that discovered TVG, dropped a couple of deposits into their accounts and went belly up after all they were told was to bet on caveman Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets and Jackpot bets. Same goes for several of the amateurs calling themselves "experts" that the industry has embraced on Twitter handing out ridiculous Pick 4 and Pick 5 plays five or six times a day. These newbies are chewed up and spit out, they never learn the proper way to wager. This is what ITP is basically so vocal about. But yeah, let's shoot the messenger because he is so "mean" and does not sugar coat things.

I'm not naive. I believe in presenting facts to back up an argument in favor or against a premise. In the absence of fact the argument is just an opinion, which is fine if it is stated as an opinion and not gospel and particularly if the presenter of that opinion doesn't degenerate into hateful, personal and mean attacks against other people and not just the ideas they espouse.

It might be true newbies try betting and never come back.

It might also not be true.

Until there's proof it's just an opinion. Using that opinion to demean another person is exactly what we all see in all sorts of discussions these days which degenerate to name calling. The solution is to agree to disagree on an opinion and move on.

[turfnsport]

What ever the Over/Under line is on how many newbies in the past 10 years made two or three deposits, were crushed by idiotic advice by so called industry experts and then went back to solely betting sports, DFS or poker, I would like the OVER for the max please.

[sharkey11]

im starting to think that there are very few horse players on this board its comprized mostly of people that are employed by the tracks or adw s or other people that have something to sell to bad horseracing a dying game

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by sharkey11

im starting to think that there are very few horse players on this board its comprized mostly of people that are employed by the tracks or adw s or other people that have something to sell to bad horseracing a dying game

There are many horse players on PA. However, if you define a horse player as a someone who makes his/her living solely from betting on horse racing, probably not because (has been stated many times in various threads) there are better ways to make a living and most of the people who rely on wagering for their sole source of income fly under the radar.

As to "horse racing is a dying game" this is just your opinion, the same as "XYZ is killing the game." It is a valid opinion but an opinion nevertheless as it is not provable. I have a completely different opinion. I would not say "thriving" but certainly not dead.

It is my opinion if the sport of racing dies, either at a particular track, or in a particular state, or overall (the latter being highly unlikely) it will be because of an extrinsic event or events. Some examples of this are societal shifts in attitude about animal welfare, about gambling (prohibition, albeit unlikely but it happened previously), or war.

[shout1966]

Its also alot " easier " to make a bet on a pick 4 or whatever bet they make with someone elses money on tv instead of the average horse player spending $40 the whole day at the track when the so called experts on tv are betting $40 50 or $100 a wager. So we are clear I am mainly talking about TVG. Only two guys on that network worth listening to and thats rich perloff and the " sarge " nick hines. Rest are nothing but shills imo.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

What ever the Over/Under line is on how many newbies in the past 10 years made two or three deposits, were crushed by idiotic advice by so called industry experts and then went back to solely betting sports, DFS or poker, I would like the OVER for the max please.

This thread is fast becoming a track champion reunion! Where the heck is "hoofhearted" when you need him?? Those were fun days. And what about "valuepix?".. and "slew?"

Those names make them sound like pokemons now, but they were intriguing posters.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by shout1966

Its also alot " easier " to make a bet on a pick 4 or whatever bet they make with someone elses money on tv instead of the average horse player spending $40 the whole day at the track when the so called experts on tv are betting $40 50 or $100 a wager. So we are clear I am mainly talking about TVG. Only two guys on that network worth listening to and thats rich perloff and the " sarge " nick hines. Rest are nothing but shills imo.

The TVG guys can't handicap their way out of a wet paper bag, and their bosses know it. When you can't find a decent bet even with a search warrant, then you stop making win recommendations...because this will reveal your ignorance in no-time. Instead, you tout a bunch of pick-4s where it cost you something like $96 to hit for 50 cents. That way, when you miss on the bet, you can brag to your audience about how "close" you came to scoring...and when you win but don't recoup your original investment, you can appear shocked and say that the bet paid so little because too many bettors followed your advice.

There is nothing of a "nefarious" nature taking place out there...and the TVG "experts" aren't out to 'destroy' their audience. They are just trying to hide their own handicapping ignorance so they can keep their jobs...and passing out ill-conceived horizontal bets is the easiest way of accomplishing this. It's called "survival'.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The TVG guys can't handicap their way out of a wet paper bag, and their bosses know it. When you can't find a decent bet even with a search warrant, then you stop making win recommendations...because this will reveal your ignorance in no-time. Instead, you tout a bunch of pick-4s where it cost you something like $96 to hit for 50 cents. That way, when you miss on the bet, you can brag to your audience about how "close" you came to scoring...and when you win but don't recoup your original investment, you can appear shocked and say that the bet paid so little because too many bettors followed your advice.

There is nothing of a "nefarious" nature taking place out there...and the TVG "experts" aren't out to 'destroy' their audience. They are just trying to hide their own handicapping ignorance so they can keep their jobs...and passing out ill-conceived horizontal bets is the easiest way of accomplishing this. It's called "survival'.

Hard to be wrong, when no matter what happens, they can claim to be "right".
thaskalos

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I've been watching lifetime losers posing as and believing they are wagering experts lure new customers to the cliff and then throw them over repeatedly for 30 years....All these wagering experts believe they are experts because they convinced some moron who knows nothing about wagering to hire them and pay them to be wagering experts.

I'm sorry if I don't want to stand at the bottom of the canyon watching customer after customer falling to their death and me saying "excuse me Mr. or Mrs. Wagering Expert...could you pretty please not throw racing's customers over the cliff any more....thank you"

I honestly don't have a problem with your delivery. I am cut from the same cloth you are and I know the racing industry is a very kiss ass industry. I call it as I see it and honestly don't care if I offend anyone or everyone. I just think the problem in this game is not that racing shows are promoting pick 4's and pick 5's, by broadcasters, some of whom have suspect handicapping abilities.

That being said, and I assume you agree with me, the problem in this game is rebates and and excessive takeout. For the the world's greatest handicapper (and I denoted that title you) to be getting double digit rebates in some exotic pools while joe public gets no rebates because they live in the wrong state or do not bet enough money is the reason this game doesn't grow. It just shifts from public money to whale money. Guys like you bet more and win more (and I am not blaming you, you are doing what you should do) meanwhile the money comes from somewhere (the non rebated masses-who increasingly have no chance to beat this game). Thus the reason I said this game is broken.

But as I alluded to earlier, if you really think that you are able to turn losing players into winning players sans rebate, do it. You have a twitter following. Rather than spend half the day talking about Peter Lurie, donate one track a day of the many I assume you cap and play each day. Cap it, give your strategies, explain why you made those decisions and let you followers learn from the best. Word will get out and suddenly Peter Lurie's picks will be falling on deaf ears. Problem solved. But be careful what you wish for because the better your competition gets the harder it will be for you to print money.

[turfnsport]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The TVG guys can't handicap their way out of a wet paper bag, and their bosses know it. When you can't find a decent bet even with a search warrant, then you stop making win recommendations...because this will reveal your ignorance in no-time. Instead, you tout a bunch of pick-4s where it cost you something like $96 to hit for 50 cents. That way, when you miss on the bet, you can brag to your audience about how "close" you came to scoring...and when you win but don't recoup your original investment, you can appear shocked and say that the bet paid so little because too many bettors followed your advice.

There is nothing of a "nefarious" nature taking place out there...and the TVG "experts" aren't out to 'destroy' their audience. They are just trying to hide their own handicapping ignorance so they can keep their jobs...and passing out ill-conceived horizontal bets is the easiest way of accomplishing this. It's called "survival'.

I don't watch much TVG anymore but some of those guys are decent handicappers. I just think the network's obsession with Pick 4-5-6's is ill advised.

I think one of the best things they have done is the $10 win insurance. Give a newbie 7 or 8 opportunities to bet $10 to win and get their $10 back if they run second or third. The newbie's bankroll stays intact much longer giving them a longer learning curve to understand handicapping and betting while giving them an opportunity to make a 10% or 20% "rebate."

If I had started out playing the ponies in the 80's betting on Pick 4's and Pick 5's I would not have lasted two months. But I'd probably be pretty good at golf now.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

I don't watch much TVG anymore but some of those guys are decent handicappers. I just think the network's obsession with Pick 4-5-6's is ill advised.

I think one of the best things they have done is the $10 win insurance. Give a newbie 7 or 8 opportunities to bet $10 to win and get their $10 back if they run second or third. The newbie's bankroll stays intact much longer giving them a longer learning curve to understand handicapping and betting while giving them an opportunity to make a 10% or 20% "rebate."

If I had started out playing the ponies in the 80's betting on Pick 4's and Pick 5's I would not have lasted two months. But I'd probably be pretty good at golf now.

The network's obsession may make more sense than you think. In a typical 10 horse when all the money is in, 8 horses will be below even and 2 might possibly offer value if you are good enough to figure out who the 2 are. That is the reality of this game. The chances of the public or even the tvg hosts figuring out who the 2 horses are before the race when we don't even know what the final odds will be are pretty small. There were no rebates in the 80's when you started betting so you got a chance to learn and win on a level playing field and you also had a much better idea of what your horse would pay as they were loading the gate. Horses dropping from 9/5 to 4/5 on the last flash were the exception not the rule.

With pick 4's and pick 5's, most players will typically be close to winning a lot. IF so and so would have won the 5th I would have scored for 2 grand or if so and so would have won the 8th I would have got back $1500 not $180. These things feed the fire to continue playing pick 4's and pick 5's a lot more than if so and so would have won the 6th I would have got back $62 on my win/show bet. This is why pick 4'a and pick 5's and even "sucker" jackpot pick 6's are so popular. People want to bet $60 to get back $2000 and the game is set up where the more sophisticated gamblers that want to grind cannot without significant rebates (not players points).