Baffert.. Really?

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

...but I was still surprised to see him above 10-1

Originally Posted by brocco

...and the horse still goes off at 12-1...

Without the stuffed mattress money, could the winner's odds have been a more normal looking 7- or 8-1 for the sixth-choice among an evenly matched bunch of contenders?

[JustRalph]

not sure if this has been posted before...........

story on Medina Spirit, prior to the race

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses...-medina-spirit

[Maximillion]

I honestly thought he was going to be 4 or 5-1.... which to me was the biggest knock on him in a race that I thought 10 horses had a legitimate shot.

Thats bad handicapping too...albeit in a different way, but bad just the same.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

How did he go off at 12-1 sixth choice? I alluded to this before the race on the Serling thread.

Serling and Aragona picked him on top, the latter allowing 10-1. Milkowski liked him at better than 8-1. Beer picked him third, elevated to second with a scratch.

Free dismissed him as "a cut below" after picking his four, but that's ample public handicapper support. Apparently minethatbird08's "third best 3yo" in the Baffert barn was the best of a superior California crop this year?

He wasn't very popular on PA. Users "Trifecta" and "XTB" picked him in the likes & tosses thread. Robert Fischer and Afleet had him in the "B" stack. Taxicab and I had him second. I was on the , with many others here.

That said, my only real tosses in the top six were the favorite and , and I was nervous about the latter given his popularity here. I played a few savers with & .

I adopted the theory that belonged on the list of top (4) contenders, and his form was muddied a bit to offset Baffert inflation, but I was still surprised to see him above 10-1.

And it was Beyer pick too.

[Robert Fischer]

to the public;

Essential Quality was a 'standout'

Rock Your World was a 'controlling speed'

Known Agenda was a 'top contender'

and
Hot Rod 'Charlie' was the name of their pet/friend/relative




so then you have Medina Spirit and Highly Motivated slipping down the public choice list, as non-favorites.


if everyone got everything right, all of the time, - we'd all be crazier than we already are to gamble on this game

[f2tornado]

Johnny V matches Baffert in Derby wins since Animal Kingdom.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

Won on futures pool for the record. However, nothing like some salonpas and jimsonweed to win a derby. This was no doubt the 3rd best 3yo in his barn.....thoughts....

I was a little drunk when posting..so I apologize for that. I don’t want Baffert canceled just tired of the get the lead and win races in the Derby. Really, MS hasn’t lost to anyone “bad” and had some early speed. There were some great races this weekend, great finishes and performances. Hope everyone came out ahead for the weekend.

[Katewerk]

But they aren't Merry Go Round races. There's plenty of movement going on in the trailing pack. Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie had every opportunity to get past him, and didn't' get it done. (EQ was handicapped by his post position, so he gets a pass)

But none of that changes the fact that every trainer on the sheet knows the size of the Derby field and the importance of gaining position before the first turn. Baffert is all but writing step-by-step instructions on a white board outside his barn.

[Valuist]

Pretty impressive Medina Spirit was fairly close to the inside, which was bad both on Oaks day and Derby Day. I know Gamine wired, but she was well off the rail, not to mention 1-5 odds, and she was pretty much all out.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Katewerk

But they aren't Merry Go Round races. There's plenty of movement going on in the trailing pack. Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie had every opportunity to get past him, and didn't' get it done. (EQ was handicapped by his post position, so he gets a pass)

The only movement going on in the back were horses going backwards.

If you ignore Mark Casse's two poorly prepared horses (Helium, Soup and Sandwich) who showed brief speed and backed up before the far turn, the 1-2-3-4 were in the same position throughout the race.

The only horse to make up any ground outside those first 4 in the stretch was Keepmeinmind, who made up all of 3/4 of a length. He made up the most ground from the first point of call to the finish, a paltry 4 1/2 lengths. Also, he and only 3 others improved position from the stretch call to the wire.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The only movement going on in the back were horses going backwards.

If you ignore Mark Casse's two poorly prepared horses (Helium, Soup and Sandwich) who showed brief speed and backed up before the far turn, the 1-2-3-4 were in the same position throughout the race.

The only horse to make up any ground outside those first 4 in the stretch was Keepmeinmind, who made up all of 3/4 of a length. He made up the most ground from the first point of call to the finish, a paltry 4 1/2 lengths. Also, he and only 3 others improved position from the stretch call to the wire.

This is highly accurate and well supported by the Equibase sheet.

Baffert won but it was more like JV won for Baffert with an assist from perfect post draw.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

How did he go off at 12-1 sixth choice? I alluded to this before the race on the Serling thread.

Serling and Aragona picked him on top, the latter allowing 10-1. Milkowski liked him at better than 8-1. Beer picked him third, elevated to second with a scratch.

That's what I was alluding to in that other thread about a crowded room.

Every public handicapper I saw either made him their top selection or made him a major contender. I thought for sure he was going to take more money than the early betting suggested. But I guess the combination of the Derby pool being gigantic and full of amateur money and Mattress Mack adding to the potential for overlays elsewhere was more than enough to keep the price higher.

I think this goes to show you how much this game misses all those former $2-$10 bettors that used to bet at OTB daily or that play lottery tickets and sports now instead. These big race days are the only ones that aren't dominated by sharks making the pools more efficient. So you have a better chance to find something you like.

[Aerocraft67]

I'm too lazy to go through the arithmetic, but I'm skeptical the mattress gimmick was enough to affect the field's odds substantially. The ML favorite was 5/2 and went off 3-1. The gimmick should have lowered the payoff, but it rose.

The took more money than expected, but it wasn't a game-changer, and the runner was a legit contender that hit the board. Reasoned handicappers showed interest in all the top five choices.

If only six had the same chance, they'd all be 5/1 before takeout, so 12/1 on the sixth passes a gut check.

It crossed my mind that "should" have been 15-1 but inflated to 12/1 because of Baffert and touting. But that's seems even more puzzling.

I don't want to overthink it. I guess I just made him for the top four rather than six in favoritism.

[burnsy]

I could be totally wrong. But I’m hearing from a guy I trust . Hold your hats. There’s gonna be news about Medina Spirit and Bob Baffert shortly. Not good news either. Take it down if I’m wrong but my friend is usually right on when it comes to any information.

[CSR]

Already out. Tested positive for betamethazone (sp).

Edit: Medina Spirit, not Bob.