frontrunners continue to capture the derby

[sbcaris]

Wire to wire. It never used to be like that in the Derby but the new trend continues on a lightning fast track where the 4 horses turning for home never changed position in the stretch run.

Off the pace horses had no chance at all

[judd]

War emblem at 20-1

[pandy]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Wire to wire. It never used to be like that in the Derby but the new trend continues on a lightning fast track where the 4 horses turning for home never changed position in the stretch run.

Off the pace horses had no chance at all

Yeah, much different now, wire to wire or stalkers, no closers. And yesterday the only horse in the race that didn't look big and beautiful and wasn't well bred won. Medina Spirit did have good speed figures right along. I picked Rock This World and Medina Spirit second because the So. Cal fields seemed the fastest and strongest. Sadler's horse lost all chance when he got sandwiched at the start. I wonder if he'll return the horse to turf or try dirt again. His Santa Anita Derby was sharp.

[BlueChip@DRF]

What the hell was Irad doing? For the first time in Derby history the #1 post gets a clear path and he pulls back on a horse that has done better running up front.

[f2tornado]

There were even decent early fractions to run at. Waving the white flag on some of the angles from the 90s and 00s. Like I mentioned in the Baffert thread, trifecta box the five Brisnet 100+ E2 horses and walk away with $848. Throw the chalk in your super and get $9500. Next year's capping will take two or three minutes.

[Aerocraft67]

I anticipated more contention to press . Particularly the credible , if not an outright duel, plus some lesser players taking an early shot, along with more legitimate stalking contenders.

That would have reasonably set up some late runners with more to say in the outcome. With out of contention at the start, had things his way, beyond some early pressure from a 27-1 that finished last.

I know that's not the final word on pace analysis and track bias and the raw talent of the winner and his trainer, but I think the wire-to-wire result had as much to do with 's troubled start.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I anticipated more contention to press . Particularly the credible , if not an outright duel, plus some lesser players taking an early shot, along with more legitimate stalking contenders.

That would have reasonably set up some late runners with more to say in the outcome. With out of contention at the start, had things his way, beyond some early pressure from a 27-1 that finished last.

I know that's not the final word on pace analysis and track bias and the raw talent of the winner and his trainer, but I think the wire-to-wire result had as much to do with 's troubled start.

Thought we would see Medina ridden a bit harder to stay in front of Rock Your World and then put him away at the end of the back stretch. It's not impossible that Rock Your World would have set the pace, I just thought he would have needed to break better than in the Santa Anita Derby and be 'quarterhorsed' from the gate, to do it. I thought Medina Spirit could have had the lead from the gate in the Santa Anita Derby, had he been ridden more aggressively, and I know Baffert likes to skip away from the break when it comes to the Derby.

I projected more likely to kind of like we saw with Bodemiester in 2012. That race we saw Bodemeister work for and carry the clear lead into the stretch, and then a horse like "I'll Have Another" had to run him down.

Bode finished "2nd", in that 2012 Derby, but there were worse stretch-runners, and Bode could have easily finished 3rd or 4th depending on a few things.

I used Medina Spirit on top(with Highly Motivated) in my multis, and primarily 3rd and 4th in lean Tris and Supers in the Derby this year.

It's natural for a Rock Your World fan to think he would have had the lead or tackled Medina Spirit had he broke near to the front. Also someone like me, with their preconceived scenario is naturally going to think a better break from Rock Your World simply would make my scenario come out. We all tend to view stuff playing out in our preconcieved opinions.

[f2tornado]

I watched the replay and I’d be surprised if EQ doesn’t get the best sheets figure running wide the entire way. Getting “Rocked” from the gate didn’t help. Start him more inside and perhaps have a different outcome. It was an enjoyable Derby stretch run for a change. Also agree with the poster discussing Irad’s tactics. Horse had a perfectly clear lane to take position and he didn’t assume it. Why intentionally drop back when that hasn’t worked the previous seven years?

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

What the hell was Irad doing? For the first time in Derby history the #1 post gets a clear path and he pulls back on a horse that has done better running up front.

KA didn't have any chance regardless of the trip.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I watched the replay and I’d be surprised if EQ doesn’t get the best sheets figure running wide the entire way. Getting “Rocked” from the gate didn’t help. Start him more inside and perhaps have a different outcome. It was an enjoyable Derby stretch run for a change. Also agree with the poster discussing Irad’s tactics. Horse had a perfectly clear lane to take position and he didn’t assume it. Why intentionally drop back when that hasn’t worked the previous seven years?

He got perfect trips until the derby, if he is a super champion he has to overcome that.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I watched the replay and I’d be surprised if EQ doesn’t get the best sheets figure running wide the entire way. Getting “Rocked” from the gate didn’t help. Start him more inside and perhaps have a different outcome. It was an enjoyable Derby stretch run for a change. Also agree with the poster discussing Irad’s tactics. Horse had a perfectly clear lane to take position and he didn’t assume it. Why intentionally drop back when that hasn’t worked the previous seven years?

The only horse that overcame any trip that I remember the last 20 years was Invasor.

[cj]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

What the hell was Irad doing? For the first time in Derby history the #1 post gets a clear path and he pulls back on a horse that has done better running up front.

That is what you get from Irad. He is better on turf than dirt for this exact reason. While I think he is a great rider, I'm not sure he is in the top 5 on dirt. He wouldn't be in mine.

[Rex Phinney]

Too many jocks totally clueless that they are horses that can’t close, not at 10 furlongs. Horses these days cannot pickup the pace and finish at that distance. So you get on the front end and burn your horse out, oh well, the other 18 are just as smoked and no one can pass anyone.

As soon as I saw the 3/4 time I knew Medina Spirit or Mandaloun was going to win the race. Johnny V had the horse on cruise control after a half mile and no one did a thing about it.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

What the hell was Irad doing? For the first time in Derby history the #1 post gets a clear path and he pulls back on a horse that has done better running up front.

Check out his ride in the Pat Day Mile aboard the #4 Defunded. Was in great position behind a ridiculously fast pace and chose to go 4-5 wide all the way around the turn and about 6 wide turning for home...naturally, his strong rally that got him close to the lead at the 1/4 pole, fizzled out.
That was one of my best plays of the day, and I blame Irad for giving the colt no chance with that move. Those frontrunners were BEGGING to get passed after those splits.

I also played Known Agenda heavily in the Derby

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Check out his ride in the Pat Day Mile aboard the #4 Defunded. Was in great position behind a ridiculously fast pace and chose to go 4-5 wide all the way around the turn and about 6 wide turning for home...naturally, his strong rally that got him close to the lead at the 1/4 pole, fizzled out.
That was one of my best plays of the day, and I blame Irad for giving the colt no chance with that move. Those frontrunners were BEGGING to get passed after those splits.

I played him also.

He was in a great spot behind what projected to be (as was) a very fast pace. I also thought he made a premature move closer to the pace. Then he made that more serious wide move too soon. It's debatable whether he would have won, but he turned what should have been a great trip making the last move against badly tiring battlers into a move that was almost guaranteed to make him hang.

Look at the bright side. He's had two bad trips in a row. Maybe he'll be playable in the future.