Who do you like in the Derby and who you tossing ?

[SandyW]

Keepmeinmind
Will be in the money, don't leave him out, remember you heard it here.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tossing: from the top spot.

Top Pick: (undecided as of yet)

Bomb to hit the board:

[Robert Fischer]

As =

Bs =

Cs =

Toss or lean against =

Key under =


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Setup reminds me of the 2012 Derby (Bodemeister leads until I'll Have Another takes over with others closing ground to contend underneath)


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Recorded a short segment as part of the Triple Clowns Podcast


GL!

[Afleet]

A's , ,
B's ,
c's ,

[trifecta]

I like Medina Spirit

I'll toss Known Agenda

[taxicab]

1st: KOWN AGENDA
2nd: Medina Spirit
3rd: Bourbonic

If track is muddy:
King Fury for the win.

[Sunday Silence]

My rule in the Derby that has served me well is to throw out any horse that backed up in the final 16th of his prep race. They have to move forward or draw away to get 1 1/4 IMO. This year my rule would disqualify the following:

Brooklyn Strong

Keepmeinmind

Mandaloun

Medina Spirit

Midnight Bourbon

Dynamic One

Hidden Stash

Highly Motivated

Soup and Sandwich

That's 9, and I'm pretty confident in that 8 of these are tosses. Just not sure of Mandaloun and that's because I have a Bluegrass Cat (only time I've been burned) feel about him. No excuse but Cox running him back, working great. Pretty good start to weeding out the field. I know Highly Motivated is a controversial toss but I'll stand by it.

Then a couple of horses to me are auto tosses:

Helium (2 7F races and one 1/16? Has any horse every had less foundation for the Derby?)

King Fury (again, nothing longer than 1 1/16. You have to have at least go 1 1/8 in my mind)

Bourbonic (bad Wood, best Beyer 89, one that could come back to bite me since his race was visually impressive flying at the end but such a terrible field/race)

Sainthood (slow, faced nothing, 84 Beyer)

Like the King (slow, faced nothing, 86 Beyer)

So that's another 5, or 14 to throw out if you count Mandaloun. Good place to start. That leaves 6 as contenders and most likely to hit the super IMHO

Known Agenda 6-1

O Besos 20-1

Hot Rod Charlie 8-1

Essential Quality 2-1

Rock Your World 5-1

Super Stock 30-1

I'm going to focus on these 6 and make a decision on what to do with Mandaloun (15-1). He's sort of like Super Stock to me. Don't like either to win but could finish and get a piece. As you know I don't love Essential Quality to win this, but it looks like he recovered after the iffy work/jogs according to Welsch so he has to be considered for a piece.

Still trying to figure out who I'm willing to key with Known Agenda drawing the 1 hole. Seems like there's money to be made

[BlueChip@DRF]

A -
B -
C -

Part Wheel
over over

Exacta Keys
over
over

WPS Ladder
- My bomb to hit the board in all spots. Pletcher's longest shot of the four. Sainthood had trouble in his last and is not afraid of contact and weaving; when he got clear he got going (it was too late by then but still showed he had something left) and now he's moving back to dirt. Considering who is next to him in the gate (two in and two out), he should get a clean break and maybe get into a position on a cleaner trip. I doubt you'll see odds on him like this afterwards.

Gotta take a stand somewhere. I'm not convinced EQ is bettable at those odds. Change my mind.

[Partsnut]

Using BetMix

I have it between two horses.
(14) & (17)
I will go with (14)


I had the winner of the "Oaks". (My single pick posted on this board)

Let's see how I do in the "Derby".

[f2tornado]

I need to look over results again for Oaks card but initial impression was the track being kind to closers. Liking the a little more at this point and perhaps increased potential for gimmicks bomb. I might throw the underneath. Will see how the undercard plays out. If Liam wins the Forester Turf then will have some decent live 2-day P3 plays going into Derby and can have fun hedging. Already have EQ boxed with All Others in future pools.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I need to look over results again for Oaks card but initial impression was the track being kind to closers. Liking the a little more at this point and perhaps increased potential for gimmicks bomb. I might throw the underneath. Will see how the undercard plays out. If Liam wins the Forester Turf then will have some decent live 2-day P3 plays going into Derby and can have fun hedging. Already have EQ boxed with All Others in future pools.

Definitely was...only reason I found the 7 obligatory and pretty much made my day.

I’m definitely waiting to see how the track is tomorrow.

[Bennie]

f2tornado- I too will be looking at hedging tomorrow while rooting for hot rod charlie. I have him in the futures oaks/derby double pool. At that time he was 53-1 and the double is coming back at $664 for a buck if he should win. I have the 10 with 1,14,17 from today in doubles and used Liam and the 8, don't have the name right now, in the pick-3 with 1,14,15. In pool 1 I have the field over essential, pool 2 I have the field over Highly and Keepmeinmind. In pool 3 I have the field over Mandaloun. And in pool5 I have the field over essential, hidden stash and highly. Pools 1-4 field include Known Agenda and Rock Your World. Pool5 field includes Known agenda. I'm thinking I just need to cover Essential because of odds and Known Agenda and Rock Your World because of being a field horse through most of the pools, in the win spot for doubles, exactas, trifectas and pick 3 plays. We'll both know more after the Forester.

[nijinski]

17-13-4

[Aerocraft67]

I like , , ,

Toss .

[Sparky13]

, ,

4 Horse Box = , , ,