Keeneland apparently raising takeout

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A "value bettor" looks at more than just the takeout before placing his wagers. A competitive field of 10 horses with a 17.5% takeout can offer a lot more "value" than the non-competitive field of 6 horses...even when the short field sports a takeout of 15%.

That's all in your mind though. If you're getting a lower return, you're getting a lower return. It goes back to what you said in the other thread. You might find a 10-horse field more "entertaining" and bettable, but if the takeout is a lot higher on the 10-horse race than the 6-horse race, you will not win as much, or you'll lose more.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

You would think so, but that doesn't seem to be what happens. Nobody was flocking to Charles Town and Delaware and Mountaineer and Evangeline when there purses were right there with the big players.

I think there's probably some incremental shipping, but unless you are willing to relocate all your horses and find a new trainer (and most owners aren't going to do that) the impact will be limited. There are also extra costs for shipping so even that is capped a bit.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by castaway01

That's all in your mind though. If you're getting a lower return, you're getting a lower return. It goes back to what you said in the other thread. You might find a 10-horse field more "entertaining" and bettable, but if the takeout is a lot higher on the 10-horse race than the 6-horse race, you will not win as much, or you'll lose more.

How so? A large competitive field provides many more opportunities for mistakes by the bettors and accordingly more overlays. A small field of mostly non-competitive horses will generally provide no overlays regardless of how low the takeout rate is.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

How so? A large competitive field provides many more opportunities for mistakes by the bettors and accordingly more overlays. A small field of mostly non-competitive horses will generally provide no overlays regardless of how low the takeout rate is.

Exactly!

The more "complications" there are in the race...the more likely it is for our competitors to make "mistakes" in their analysis of it. In essence...we are looking to capitalize on our competition's MISTAKES.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by AndyC

How so? A large competitive field provides many more opportunities for mistakes by the bettors and accordingly more overlays. A small field of mostly non-competitive horses will generally provide no overlays regardless of how low the takeout rate is.

Overlays depend on the skill of the handicapper.

To reiterate my point:

If two valuebettors of equal ability bet at two different tracks with two different takeouts the valuebetter betting at the track with the lower takeout will come out ahead in the long run. That's a mathematical fact.

Now, you might think there is more value in larger fields at tracks with higher takeouts, but another better with your same ability who bets at track with small fields and a lower takeout will end up with more money than you in the long run, all else being equal.

It is a matter of preference to bet into a larger or smaller field, but the mathematical laws don't change based on a preference.

You might win more than you would by betting at tracks with races with small fields and a higher takeout, but that is only because of psychology. It has nothing to do with mathematics.

If you could put the psychology aside and focus on winning where takeout is lower, in the long run, you would come out ahead.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by highnote

Overlays depend on the skill of the handicapper.

To reiterate my point:

If two valuebettors of equal ability bet at two different tracks with two different takeouts the valuebetter betting at the track with the lower takeout will come out ahead in the long run. That's a mathematical fact.

Now, you might think there is more value in larger fields at tracks with higher takeouts, but another better with your same ability who bets at track with small fields and a lower takeout will end up with more money than you in the long run, all else being equal.

It is a matter of preference to bet into a larger or smaller field, but the mathematical laws don't change based on a preference.

You might win more than you would by betting at tracks with races with small fields and a higher takeout, but that is only because of psychology. It has nothing to do with mathematics.

If you could put the psychology aside and focus on winning where takeout is lower, in the long run, you would come out ahead.

I've seen the same argument made by win-bettors...who think that it's a "mathematical fact" that the win pool is more profitable than the exotics pool...because of the higher takeouts of the exotics. Alas...things aren't that simple in this game.

[Lafecs]

Originally Posted by highnote

Overlays depend on the skill of the handicapper.

To reiterate my point:

If two valuebettors of equal ability bet at two different tracks with two different takeouts the valuebetter betting at the track with the lower takeout will come out ahead in the long run. That's a mathematical fact.

Now, you might think there is more value in larger fields at tracks with higher takeouts, but another better with your same ability who bets at track with small fields and a lower takeout will end up with more money than you in the long run, all else being equal.

It is a matter of preference to bet into a larger or smaller field, but the mathematical laws don't change based on a preference.

You might win more than you would by betting at tracks with races with small fields and a higher takeout, but that is only because of psychology. It has nothing to do with mathematics.

If you could put the psychology aside and focus on winning where takeout is lower, in the long run, you would come out ahead.

Don't waste your breath

[highnote]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I've seen the same argument made by win-bettors...who think that it's a "mathematical fact" that the win pool is more profitable than the exotics pool...because of the higher takeouts of the exotics. Alas...things aren't that simple in this game.

You could have a greater profit in the exacta pools with a lower return on investment.

Profit is mainly a function of how much you bet. You could bet a lot with a negative expectation, get lucky, win a bundle, and end up with a huge profit.

Or you could play only positive expectation games, bet very little, and win very little over a given period of time.

You could have a large edge in a very difficult game where you will win very infrequently, but when you do the payoff is huge -- like playing unpopular numbers in the lottery. You might win on your first attempt or it might take a million years. Every bet might have a positive expectation, but you could still lose.

But if you feel comfortable betting into events with higher takeouts then have at it. Hopefully, you'll win a lot! But your winning won't change the fact that, all else being equal, your expectation is better in a 15% pool than a 17.5% pool.

[highnote]

If you bet at high takeout tracks you are encouraging them to keep takeouts high. You give them permission to raise rates.

Remember, you get treated the way you let people treat you.

[GMB@BP]

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-ta...se-out-players

Not sure if posted but a much longer piece on the raise

I love the end paragraph or two. Its awesome in its only in racing special way.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by highnote

If you bet at high takeout tracks you are encouraging them to keep takeouts high. You give them permission to raise rates.

Remember, you get treated the way you let people treat you.

Do you suppose that these tracks will LOWER their takeouts...if I withdraw this "permission" that I've given them to raise them?

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by AndyC

The Canterbury experiment sure didn't help convincing anybody.

I will be interested in what Canterbury's total handle is this year-I'll bet it will be down, but they won't blame the increased take they will blame the weather. Last year I tried to play a few races there, but they always ran quarter horses in the early double so I passed.

[Andy Asaro]

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-ta...se-out-players

Excerpt:

The criticism came fast and furious. And not unexpectedly.

[GMB@BP]

For those that bet solid money in this sport...

why do you do it?

I personally stopped a ways back, never could get past the break even point despite being pretty good at the game. With the straight up mathematics I am just wondering what is the attraction from a gambling perspective?

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

http://www.drf.com/news/keeneland-ta...se-out-players

Not sure if posted but a much longer piece on the raise

I love the end paragraph or two. Its awesome in its only in racing special way.

I'm surprised the author didn't mention the on track reduction in takeout of the show pool at Oaklawn-handle increased significantly. CD is a bad comparison because they have the greatest race in North America that is a worldwide event. I would think the Oaklawn and Kee comparison would be more relevant.