Race 5 Spa Monday 08-20 SACRILEGE - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

bello · 08-20-2018, 10:32 AM

So I am humming along finding my P5 I actually like races 1-4.....

Than along comes race 5.

a 12,5000 claiming race SACRILEGE this race is even being carded at Saratoga. More like an Aqueduct inner track event.

That being said, anyone have a clue on a winner?

8 horses 7 class drops, 4 class drops off the claim, 2 dropping over 1/3 the value of their last race.

Lots of four sale signs and I have no clue.

Help? I need to round out the p5 and do not have a clue and refuse to hit the all button.

Tom · 08-20-2018, 11:33 AM

Englehart has this one's problems fixed. 2 for 3 this year, that loss at PRX obviously not a concern.

this guy hits with drop off the claim and his hot at this meet - 24% Keeps Javier on board

Rectify may be the speed pop lone early in the race. Trainer may be looking to break a slump with this drop down. Won her last year - a repeat of that one wins this.

Missile Bomb - if he can rate just off the pace, he could fly past them all late

It is nice to see they are giving the nickel claimers a shot to run now!

Good Luck.

Nutz and Boltz · 08-20-2018, 11:42 AM

Three scratches

..fergetaboutit!

jimmyb · 08-20-2018, 11:43 AM

I'd go with any that have won previous at the spa.

.

has won 5 from 7 away from the spa this year so I'd throw him in as well. 7 Has all the back class.

I think the

is a solid play. led for a half for a 40k tag at the spa July 25th. I like the jockey switch to Saez.

If you're thinking a real bomber, the

may be right up your alley. Front speed and a little change of pace in last.

My play will be

WP. I don't usually play horizontals and it is a tricky race with verticals.

Tri key

/

FakeNameChanged · 08-20-2018, 12:05 PM

Contrarian play:

bello · 08-20-2018, 12:21 PM

Thanks all,
with the 3 late scratches I will be hitting the all button.

Robert Fischer · 08-20-2018, 01:17 PM

missed your pick-5. Hope you hit it

main insight for this race

MISSLE BOMB looks like a play-against, especially given that he will be co-favorite.

looks like just

and

jay68802 · 08-20-2018, 01:27 PM

Either the

goes wire to wire or the

runs him down.

bello · 08-20-2018, 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

missed your pick-5. Hope you hit it

main insight for this race

MISSLE BOMB looks like a play-against, especially given that he will be co-favorite.

looks like just

and

After all that I was done leg one. I singled #5 knowing damn well that Diordino shippers coming off marginal performance lines at non-nyra tracks are all live this meet. The all button in leg 5 made me eliminate Diodoro. Good news is I missed leg 2 anyways and laid off.

Going with a 5-810-all P3. Chalky Agree on missile bomb but if I hit the ALL button I can't leave anything out.If Alvarado does not go to the top in Race 3 there should be an investigation

Robert Fischer · 08-20-2018, 02:05 PM

$1 P31, 2, 3, 5, 6
$1 P31, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
$1 P35, 7
Wager Total $60.00

$3 P32
$3 P31, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
$3 P35, 7
Wager Total $36.00

Robert Fischer · 08-20-2018, 02:10 PM

i got duped by the wrong heavy-chalk and singled the

instead of the

i just blew my imaginary bankroll.

always check the incoming doubles probables and the doubles probables from the chalks in the previous race before.

Maybe Abreu or Motion will bail me out and I can still break even (4,8 in fourth race)

bello · 08-20-2018, 02:14 PM

With you on abreu.....Been doing his share of bailing me out all meet.

Robert Fischer · 08-20-2018, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jay68802

Either the goes wire to wire or the

runs him down.

maybe your wire-to-wire threat will prove to be the value in multis

morning line is higher than both the

and the

Quote:

Originally Posted by bello

With you on abreu.....Been doing his share of bailing me out all meet.

When Abreu has a runner for an owner like Michael Dubb, I ask myself "what would this same exact runner's odds be, if the printed name said 'Chad Brown' instead of 'Jorge Abreu' ?"...

Sometimes Abreu has a runner for an owner that I've never heard of, but some of these almost seem like Brown b-level or 2nd-tier. I'm not inferring that the guy isn't completely independent... for all I know he has different vets and different farriers and grooms... for all I know he doesn't work with Chad one bit... I don't have that information. However, this game feeds any kind of theories or general wariness you may be predisposed to lol

Robert Fischer · 08-20-2018, 02:41 PM

1/all/8,10
1/8,10/all = $16

bello · 08-20-2018, 02:45 PM

Abreu went from 18-1 to 10-1 last flash...broke last and wade a green middle move in traffic. Winner #2 was pretty impressive.