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Old 03-19-2018, 01:57 PM   #151
AndyC
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Originally Posted by Poindexter View Post
....The one thing that I assume might go on with sports betting is profiling of players. Assuming that sports betting is eventually going to be available on line, I am sure these computer analytics will be tracking every play you make will probably know the players tendencies better than the player does and will likely charge them excessive juice on the plays they are more likely going to make. So if the computer has me tracked as say a value player, it may offer me -115 on the value side and -105 on the other side, if it has me pegged as a sharp, it will offer me -115 on the sharp side and -105 on the other side if it has me pegged as a local/favorite team player (tend to bet my hometown teams or certain teams) they will once again probably try to take advantage of this. How well this will go in the the internet/social media era I do not know. Something tells me if a player is consistently paying -115 on his favorite team the book will lose that player to another book that doesn't profile.
Profiling on a macro level might be done to set the initial lines but money will dictate the line movements from there. We are quickly approaching full legalized sports betting where bettors will be able to choose whatever line is best for them. Just like the customers who pay $.40 a gallon more for gas across the street from the station selling at $.40 less, there will be some bettors who will pay up because they don't care or don't know. Right now there is still a little bit of the book controls the customers but that will change to the customers control the book. That's the beauty of open markets, something horse racing doesn't have.
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Old 03-19-2018, 09:23 PM   #152
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I am most interested in seeing who does it and where/why, due to convenience is it worth it for tracking purposes? That's the sell at the OTB or at the track live if you can stay below reporting. The corollary is betting with a local. No tax, no tracking, all cash. You would assume they'll retain the most competitive prices as well. This will be very interesting ...
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Old 03-19-2018, 11:24 PM   #153
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More generally, i think there's a gigantic amount of delusional thinking associated with sports betting. Yes, takeouts are still lower than horse racing. But you guys really have no idea all the changes that are going on to increase sports books' margins, and also have no idea the variance, amount of information necessary(daily fantasy sports are an indicator of this), and difficulty of long term profit.

Sports betting is a huge money pit for a lot of otherwise sensible players.
Many of us go through life in a state of delusion, but that's irrelevant for those who maintain accurate records. When it comes to sports betting, I would venture to say that it's tougher than it was 30 years ago, in part due to the amount of information that's more readily available. The lines are sharper, and line movements not nearly as telling (IMHO) as they once were. In spite of that, I can count the number of winning horseplayers I've ever met on one hand, while even today I continue to run into new acquaintances, often younger, who crush the man in sports.

What you seem to be hinting at though is something else, and it's unclear to me what "changes" are taking place. Are the sports books sharing pools now? Do they have the inside scoop on drugged up or injured players and fixed games, offering sucker juicy lines on the wrong side? Perhaps a shady timekeeper with a slow hand providing an edge to the over? I can see one edge of analyzing the wagers made, and fading the losers. But that's easy enough to do from the player's side.

How does not using numerous accounts/books reduce any additional risk if we're just talking juice?

As for variance, some of us are well aware of the statistics involved. I also know that I'd never have a sample size large enough to bet on a game for another 400 or 500 years of results in the database, so I've decided to gamble on my gut instinct. I can live with being "lucky" with a positive balance, and still sleep at night.

And out of curiosity, what game are these "sensible" players displaying their sensibility? Poker? The stock market? Bonds?
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Old 03-20-2018, 09:48 PM   #154
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First, there has never been a sports line set at -120/-105.

Second, no one (bookmaker) ever gets 50/50 action on sides. One of the proofs of this is that they change the above money lines precisely because they don't. All that said, they don't mind not getting 50/50, because in aggregate they are taking what they believe to long term winning "risks" with the margin of error being their 10% vig, which any bettor will tell you is not a nominal thing in terms of success.

Not only is the vig higher, but the fact that you can't lock prices and know what your ROI is (if you make models or handicap however), or know your expected return or beat people to numbers, all mean that horse racing can't sniff sports. Horses loses in all of those aspects. The lone exception is horizontal wagers; the only problem there being that you have pretty much no idea what others are doing. You do have some idea of what other bettors are doing in moving pool prices in horses or lines in games.

Most, if not all of what I say above, agrees with Thaskalos' sentiments.
Im about to get back access to Betfair as a Canadian, and I cant wait to get back to fixed odds.

i dont see how people stood for parimutuel for so long. Its just too random. you need to know the price.
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Old 03-20-2018, 10:40 PM   #155
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Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid View Post
First, there has never been a sports line set at -120/-105.

Second, no one (bookmaker) ever gets 50/50 action on sides. One of the proofs of this is that they change the above money lines precisely because they don't. All that said, they don't mind not getting 50/50, because in aggregate they are taking what they believe to long term winning "risks" with the margin of error being their 10% vig, which any bettor will tell you is not a nominal thing in terms of success.

Not only is the vig higher, but the fact that you can't lock prices and know what your ROI is (if you make models or handicap however), or know your expected return or beat people to numbers, all mean that horse racing can't sniff sports. Horses loses in all of those aspects. The lone exception is horizontal wagers; the only problem there being that you have pretty much no idea what others are doing. You do have some idea of what other bettors are doing in moving pool prices in horses or lines in games.

Most, if not all of what I say above, agrees with Thaskalos' sentiments.
Could some of these be considered advantages for those who are good at modeling? That is, if I can predict the expected payout of a runner or a combination better than my competitors, am I in a better situation than if we both know the payout ahead of time?
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Old 03-20-2018, 11:21 PM   #156
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Im about to get back access to Betfair as a Canadian, and I cant wait to get back to fixed odds.

i dont see how people stood for parimutuel for so long. Its just too random. you need to know the price.
If you are watching a race live, you pretty much know what price you're going to be getting as the clock goes from 1mtp to 0mtp and beyond...not exactly of course, but you pretty much know where it's heading from there...and if you don't, you haven't been watching races for very long.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:07 AM   #157
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Supreme Court doesn't appear to be in any hurry on deciding.

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Old 03-21-2018, 10:24 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate View Post
Many of us go through life in a state of delusion, but that's irrelevant for those who maintain accurate records. When it comes to sports betting, I would venture to say that it's tougher than it was 30 years ago, in part due to the amount of information that's more readily available. The lines are sharper, and line movements not nearly as telling (IMHO) as they once were. In spite of that, I can count the number of winning horseplayers I've ever met on one hand, while even today I continue to run into new acquaintances, often younger, who crush the man in sports.

What you seem to be hinting at though is something else, and it's unclear to me what "changes" are taking place. Are the sports books sharing pools now? Do they have the inside scoop on drugged up or injured players and fixed games, offering sucker juicy lines on the wrong side? Perhaps a shady timekeeper with a slow hand providing an edge to the over? I can see one edge of analyzing the wagers made, and fading the losers. But that's easy enough to do from the player's side.

How does not using numerous accounts/books reduce any additional risk if we're just talking juice?

As for variance, some of us are well aware of the statistics involved. I also know that I'd never have a sample size large enough to bet on a game for another 400 or 500 years of results in the database, so I've decided to gamble on my gut instinct. I can live with being "lucky" with a positive balance, and still sleep at night.

And out of curiosity, what game are these "sensible" players displaying their sensibility? Poker? The stock market? Bonds?
You actually are getting at the major sources of the delusion. I am glad you realize the things that 99 percent of my sports betting friends do not.

No, sports books are not generally trading on inside information. But they are no longer fully balancing the action in the events that draw the biggest hamdle. Using computer modeling, they can position themselves to make some more money.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:26 AM   #159
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Could some of these be considered advantages for those who are good at modeling? That is, if I can predict the expected payout of a runner or a combination better than my competitors, am I in a better situation than if we both know the payout ahead of time?
Yep.

Fixed odds take away a form of information asymmetry. Whether that helps a player depends on which side of the asymmetry they are on.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:28 AM   #160
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Gee...and I thought you were just the resident "poker expert" here. But here you are taking us to school on sports betting too. What's next...HORSE RACING?
Part of my knowledge of sports betting is of the negative kind-I know several winning poker players who are addicted to it and spout the worse sorts of fallacies when discussing it.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:28 AM   #161
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just yesterday i watched a race at Will Rodgers. the horse left the gate at 1/9, about $2500 came off the horse, the horse finished the race at 3/5 and crossed the wire first. i said to myself they got these after the bell players, but wait a second, the horse came down and got placed second. i am scratching my head because i really didn't see anything that would bring the horse down, and these guys must have seen it.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:31 AM   #162
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OK we will keep this simple. Team A plays Team B twice. In both games the line is -120 A and -100 B. The first game is won by A and the second game is won by B. There are only 2 bettors making a bet on each game and they are both trying to win $100 each game. Bettor 1 bets $120 on team A and bettor 2 bets $100 on team B. So the book takes in $220 on each game and a total of $440 for the 2 games. When A wins the first game the book pays bettor 1 a total of $220 and when B wins the second game the book pays bettor 2 a total of $200. So the book after 2 games has taken in $440 in bets and paid out $420 to the winners resulting in a net win of $20.

If the games were at -110 A and -110 B the book would be taking in $220 of bets on each game and paying out $210 each game. For the 2 games the book would take in $440 of bets and payout $420 to the winners, again netting $20.
Netting $20 off how much bet?

When the numbers change, the total amount bet changed too. A $440 bet is not the same as a $110 bet.

That would be like a racetrack counting $10 on a 5 to 1 shot as the same amount of handle as $50 on an even money shot. And calculating the takeout percentage on that.
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Old 03-21-2018, 10:34 AM   #163
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Netting $20 off how much bet?

When the numbers change, the total amount bet changed too. A $440 bet is not the same as a $110 bet.

That would be like a racetrack counting $10 on a 5 to 1 shot as the same amount of handle as $50 on an even money shot. And calculating the takeout percentage on that.
He was only using 440 to show all four combinations, two people betting both scenarios. If lines were 110, each four bets would still add up to 440.

110 X 4

120 X 2 + 100 X 2

Last edited by cj; 03-21-2018 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 03-21-2018, 11:53 AM   #164
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Netting $20 off how much bet?

When the numbers change, the total amount bet changed too. A $440 bet is not the same as a $110 bet.

That would be like a racetrack counting $10 on a 5 to 1 shot as the same amount of handle as $50 on an even money shot. And calculating the takeout percentage on that.
I am all eyes. Give an example of how your scenario works in real life with real numbers.
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Old 03-21-2018, 01:04 PM   #165
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just yesterday i watched a race at Will Rodgers. the horse left the gate at 1/9, about $2500 came off the horse, the horse finished the race at 3/5 and crossed the wire first. i said to myself they got these after the bell players, but wait a second, the horse came down and got placed second. i am scratching my head because i really didn't see anything that would bring the horse down, and these guys must have seen it.
This same pattern (not the horse coming down part but the money coming off a 1/9 or 1/5 shot so that it ends up at 3/5 or 4/5 part) has been repeated hundreds of times over the past 4 or 5 years - mostly at tracks with smallish pools. Maybe it's been going on at tracks with large pools too - but harder to spot when the pools are bigger.

I suspect the player or group who made the initial bets that put the horse at 1/9 going to the gate were employing a strategy that goes something like this:

Bet so much on the horse that it becomes patently unattractive to players like you and I from a risk vs. reward standpoint. The idea being to persuade players like you and I to not bet their horse - and maybe take a small stab on one of the other horses.

Cancel (a big part) of their bets right before the race off or shortly after if betting where a cancel delay is offered.

If I can make an educated guess: They have a pretty good idea what final pool size will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what final odds will be after they cancel. They have a pretty good idea what their edge will be given final pool size and final odds after they cancel.

If the type of strategy described above enables them to accomplish most of that:

From a Kelly perspective, I suspect they have a pretty good idea how much better off they are in terms of maximizing their edge vs. using a "normal betting strategy" where players like you and I are more likely to bet money on their horse.

All of that said, I think the incident you described yesterday Tues 03-20-2018 at WRD involved the #4 horse in R6... which according to the chart took place inside the eighth pole.

If they are now canceling after seeing an incident that occurs in mid stretch likely to make their number come down:

THAT'S a huge can of worms -- one I haven't seen before!


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