Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-18-2018, 04:11 PM   #1
jocko699
Resurrectionist
 
jocko699's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
Justify

I guess Baffert's firster could be worth the 500k. Scat Daddy out of a Ghostzapper mare goes 121 and 4 first out and looked like he wanted more distance.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
jocko699 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2018, 04:55 PM   #2
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Yea...Looks like DVD has taken over as Bafferts main rider.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2018, 05:00 PM   #3
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2018, 10:31 PM   #4
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Track seems faster today than it has been lately, but still very impressive.
definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-18-2018, 11:59 PM   #5
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
definitely, horses went 21 2 and held on in the los flores.
It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.

Last edited by cj; 02-19-2018 at 12:05 AM.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 10:43 AM   #6
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
It wasn't really any faster in the end than it has been...Justify ran a MONSTROUS number in my opinion.
131, with a couple points added to final time of 129 for pace.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 10:50 AM   #7
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 10:51 AM   #8
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
Can we re-vote on 3yo HOY 2017?

Where does this guy go from here?
The moon...thats like what West Coast got in the travers, and is already the fastest figure run by any 3yo this year.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 02:28 PM   #9
dasch
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5
dasch is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 04:18 PM   #10
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch View Post
I gave the race a strong number but nowhere near the 104 Beyer and 131 TF.

I am looking forward to betting against at *1-5
How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 04:39 PM   #11
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
Thought the Beyer seemed a little lower than I thought the performance warranted. I could be wrong. Only recently started incorporating Beyers (half for the Beyers' opinion and half to know what the public is seeing). Seems to almost be an 'initiation period' for most new horses, where their first Beyer (or two) is a little lower than the performance seemed to warrant, and then they jump up a little more dramatically than their visual improvement seems to show in subsequent starts. Eventually it seems to find it's level.

Was a little surprised that this Beyer wasn't a 115 or so. I understand that the Beyers have to scale to the complete order of finishers, so it may have put the runner up a little too high.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 04:49 PM   #12
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 05:27 PM   #13
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Some of the Baffert horses have flopped after these big mdn scores with fast figs but I dont think this is one of them. He did a couple things in the backstretch that showed some real talent.
Sometimes these kinds of winners look great but the clock isn't anything special. Sometimes the race is fast but horses doesn't look that great. This guy had both IMO...fast and looked fabulous.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 09:48 PM   #14
big frank
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 386
Thumbs up Justify

Best 3yo i have seen so far !
big frank is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-19-2018, 10:38 PM   #15
dasch
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.
dasch is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:16 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.