Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Off Topic > Off Topic - Sports


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-06-2018, 02:26 AM   #1
WP1981
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 318
Rep Power: 7 WP1981 is on a distinguished road
Falcons

We have a spot for it here..why not post my ramblings.

Odd times. Simplify it.

Falcons come in not really living up to their potential all year. With the exception of Matty making a bone headed play or two, this is a top 3 fantasy draft pick team at QB, RB, WR and WR2. Defense has been a bright spot. Offense sputtering under Sark.

Rams massively impressive and overachieved vs expectation in every aspect this year. Great young coach, maybe the best back in the league, good defense and the castoff WR from Buffalo doing well.

All things considered I cannot figure out why Atlanta is not favored by 1 or 2 in this spot-at least a pick em. Given their "bad" season they have only lost by 10 or more twice. They have played it close with things falling for or against them in the end. Not to mention the Rams are without a kicker.

I have put blinders on, ignored the media and continually funneled money into Atlanta +250 for the majority of the week. To my suprise it has moved to +210 and +5.5 today.

The Rams are a scary team to bet against, but do you find yourself saying "Man, I can't believe I bet Matt Ryan and the crappy Falcons vs the Rams!" or "I can't believe I bet Jared Goff, an undisciplined defense and a team with no kicker laying points in a playoff game!"?

Today all I have read about is this eventual Rams blowout and an easy meeting vs Foles in Philly. Meanwhile that line is ticking down. Tick. Tick. Tick.
WP1981 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 09:12 AM   #2
Inner Dirt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 2,968
Rep Power: 7 Inner Dirt has a spectacular aura aboutInner Dirt has a spectacular aura about
I will warn you I agree with you 100% and in 35+ years betting NFL this is my worst season ever. Also to add to what you said the Rams roster is loaded with players with two years or less NFL experience and they only have something like 6 players with play-off experience, the least of the 12 man field. I have a feeling the pressure could get to them at some point.
Inner Dirt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 09:41 AM   #3
barahona44
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Nueve meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; three months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 2,804
Rep Power: 9 barahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nice
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
I will warn you I agree with you 100% and in 35+ years betting NFL this is my worst season ever. Also to add to what you said the Rams roster is loaded with players with two years or less NFL experience and they only have something like 6 players with play-off experience, the least of the 12 man field. I have a feeling the pressure could get to them at some point.
Agree 100%.The playoff track record of "Worst to First" teams isn't good.The only 2 teams that went to the Super Bowl after winning four or fewer games the year before were the1988 Bengals,who lost the SB and the 1998 Rams , who won it.

Now all Atlanta has to do is hold on if they get a 25 point halftime lead.
__________________
"Horse racing + Golf=Fun"

Slogan of the Track Men Golf Club.
barahona44 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 09:59 AM   #4
Inner Dirt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 2,968
Rep Power: 7 Inner Dirt has a spectacular aura aboutInner Dirt has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44 View Post
Agree 100%.The playoff track record of "Worst to First" teams isn't good.The only 2 teams that went to the Super Bowl after winning four or fewer games the year before were the1988 Bengals,who lost the SB and the 1998 Rams , who won it.

Now all Atlanta has to do is hold on if they get a 25 point halftime lead.
I had a large money line wager on them last year, did you have to bring that up?
Inner Dirt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 12:07 PM   #5
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 2,248
Rep Power: 10 burnsy has a spectacular aura aboutburnsy has a spectacular aura about
I like the Rams -5.5. They have a ton of weapons on both sides of the ball. I like the fact that they are young, They didn't even realize they were good until the 6th or 7th game according to Woods. This also means they may be back for years to come even if they implode tonight. Which i sort of think needs to happen for them to lose this game. The Falcons are dinged up and have been underperforming on offense for most of the season. The defense is top notch but the Rams score more than anyone so they need a huge effort to stop the Rams. If the Falcons tire on "d" like they have in the past, it will be a drubbing.

The OP pointed out Woods and Gurley but they have a ton in the tank. Sammy Watson is a deep threat and Cooper Kupp is probably one of the most under rated Wide Outs in the league. Tavon Austin adds a ton of speed and the rookie tight end Gerald Everett is a beast in the open field. Its no surprise that Goff is killing it with a new coach and he has so much on his team he can pick his "poison" . They are peaking at the right time, physically beating people up, as of late, on defense. Its their game to lose.

Atlanta has the experience but they need to play their best game of the year to pull this one out. So far, it really has not happened and if they slip up, like they have been this season, this could get ugly for them. The Rams actually play better on the road this year (7-1)!, if they get past this one...........look out!
__________________
"If voting mattered, they wouldn't let you do it." Mark Twain
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 12:20 PM   #6
WP1981
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 318
Rep Power: 7 WP1981 is on a distinguished road
Should be fun. By undisciplined defense I meant the Rams WILL do something stupid at least once or twice and it may cost them. I had them vs the Saints and they were on the verge of something dumb several times. Being a Cards fan I keep an eye on these guys each week, its my biggest fear when backing them.

If it goes to current popular opinion we can expect a 41-10 Rams win. In that case the only thing I want to be holding is the ML I have now. No other choice with my opinion.

I use a few weird defensive stats to come up with my numbers. Other plays I ended up on was reduced lines on Tenn +7.5, Buff +7.5 and Carolina straight up. I don't have much faith in Tenn and Buff coming through, Carolina I think has a better chance than the 5/2 I am getting but still lukewarm. I just go with what the numbers say unless something is way off, in those cases I bet against.

I have Bama winning by 4 as well so not sure what to do with that. Maybe an alternate with them giving 10 and the Georgia ML. Not sure.
WP1981 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 12:37 PM   #7
burnsy
self medicated
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 2,248
Rep Power: 10 burnsy has a spectacular aura aboutburnsy has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by WP1981 View Post
Should be fun. By undisciplined defense I meant the Rams WILL do something stupid at least once or twice and it may cost them.

If it goes to current popular opinion we can expect a 41-10 Rams win. In that case the only thing I want to be holding is the ML I have now. No other choice with my opinion..
Can't count last weeks game, they rested. But for the last month their defense has been fine. Crushing the Seahawks at Seattle and Tenn at Tenn.

That's the other reason i like this game. Every talking head on TV is picking Atlanta as an upset. Watching both play, I cant justify that. The Rams have beat up on New Orleans, Seattle, Tenn., and they damn near beat Philly. He's (Wentz)out because he tried to scramble on that defense and they crushed him for it. The only game they lost on the road was Minn. Home today, I'm taking the fave and running, no time to get cute after seeing Atlanta struggle for most of the year.
__________________
"If voting mattered, they wouldn't let you do it." Mark Twain
burnsy is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 02:33 PM   #8
Secondbest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,191
Rep Power: 6 Secondbest is on a distinguished road
One thing in Rams favor is special teams. Their kicker,punter and return man all made first team all-pro
They have a total of six players on first team one on second team. The left tackle and left guard are both in the team. Only Jones made second team for falcons
Best players on field are all Rams
Rams -5 1/2
Secondbest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 02:57 PM   #9
WP1981
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 318
Rep Power: 7 WP1981 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest View Post
One thing in Rams favor is special teams. Their kicker,punter and return man all made first team all-pro
They have a total of six players on first team one on second team. The left tackle and left guard are both in the team. Only Jones made second team for falcons
Best players on field are all Rams
Rams -5 1/2
The best of that pack is Zeurlein (sp), who is out.
WP1981 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 02:58 PM   #10
Inner Dirt
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 2,968
Rep Power: 7 Inner Dirt has a spectacular aura aboutInner Dirt has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest View Post
One thing in Rams favor is special teams. Their kicker,punter and return man all made first team all-pro
They have a total of six players on first team one on second team. The left tackle and left guard are both in the team. Only Jones made second team for falcons
Best players on field are all Rams
Rams -5 1/2
Their kicker is out for the year and his replacement isn't very good.
Inner Dirt is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 03:40 PM   #11
Secondbest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,191
Rep Power: 6 Secondbest is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by WP1981 View Post
The best of that pack is Zeurlein (sp), who is out.
I did not know that. My bad
Secondbest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 03:43 PM   #12
WP1981
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 318
Rep Power: 7 WP1981 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest View Post
I did not know that. My bad
Neither did I in my fantasy playoff
WP1981 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-06-2018, 08:36 PM   #13
Secondbest
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,191
Rep Power: 6 Secondbest is on a distinguished road
Nice play by ram special team
Secondbest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-07-2018, 12:15 AM   #14
barahona44
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Nueve meses en Port St. Lucie, FL; three months in the Dominican Republic
Posts: 2,804
Rep Power: 9 barahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nicebarahona44 is just really nice
Solid game by Atlanta, especially on the defensive side.Interesting to see the look of anxiety on the Falcons sideline when the Rams started making some noise in the 4th quarter-looks like the ghosts of Super Bowl 51 haven't been completely laid to rest.
__________________
"Horse racing + Golf=Fun"

Slogan of the Track Men Golf Club.
barahona44 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-08-2018, 02:23 PM   #15
onefast99
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: NJ
Posts: 5,812
Rep Power: 16 onefast99 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by barahona44 View Post
Solid game by Atlanta, especially on the defensive side.Interesting to see the look of anxiety on the Falcons sideline when the Rams started making some noise in the 4th quarter-looks like the ghosts of Super Bowl 51 haven't been completely laid to rest.
They can take the Eagles next week then need a lot of help to beat Minnesota.

Philadelphia Eagles are first No. 1 seed ever to open as underdog vs. Atlanta Falcons.
__________________
Monmouth Park...keep racing in NJ!
onefast99 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
To Compete with Sports Betting must lower takeout/breakage on higher churn wagers?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:06 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.