Breeders cup- Most likely winner, best value and tosses

[SeaHorseRacing]

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Complexity: I see a speed-riddled race and a horse that likes/needs to be on the lead. Has 2 to 3 speeds inside him and a couple on the outside. Has been clear at the 1st call in both races and romped on fast tracks. It won't be fast tomorrow, and more than likely thick and grueling. His numbers are as good as any, but I'd rather take a price that can sit with this field.



Oscar Performance: Has never ran a good race on good, soft, much less a yielding turf course. Also not sure he has really ever beat all that much. Not sure he finishes in the top half of the field. Look at his races in which he has faced 3YO and over. Almost every other horse in the field has beaten better.

Ok Thanks, I believe OP has a win over yielding turf another poster mentioned it I have to look again, thanks for the input

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Solely because of track conditions, I'm throwing out all non front speed in every race on dirt, both days.....Playing all foreign horses on turf at 8-1 or more, shotgun them all.

Couldn't agree more

[azeri98]

Code of Honor to be scratched from the BC according to Bloodhorse

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by SeaHorseRacing

Sticking my neck out here.

I think Game Winner is just a completely different class to the field.

The only flaw I see in Game Winner is his physicality.


While his stamina stays on much better than his rivals, ... his physicality... it's not going down, but it's starting to go down.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

The only flaw I see in Game Winner is his physicality.


While his stamina stays on much better than his rivals, ... his physicality... it's not going down, but it's starting to go down.

I just read a workout report that said he's put on weight and and his coat looks better than ever.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I just read a workout report that said he's put on weight and and his coat looks better than ever.

Big muscles & doesn't get tired like the other horses...

I'm looking at stuff like how his ears pin back, and he hits the ground hard with his right lead, and he lowers his head a bit during those signature Baffert gallop-out moves.

1. He can bury this field
2. Complexity can get brave
3. A duel could develop, and Game Winner may have too much heart and collapse the whole pace.

[Robert Fischer]

Complexity is big beast in his own right. If you quibble, you could say doesn't want to relax into a cruise, but the reverse is that he can go faster. He's got the beach bod.

Standard Deviation is not as physically developed as some of these. Maybe he hasn't peaked yet, and is going to appreciate added distance and maturity to 3yo. He'll need a really HOT pace to factor today.

[AxleLode]

Friday

Most likely Race5)Soldiers Call
Value Race8)War of Will
Toss Race7)Jaywalk

Sat

Most likely Race10)Enable
Value Race6)Eziyra
Toss Race9)Monomoy Girl

[Tom]

Friday

$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Most likely winner - Newspaperofrecord


$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES

Longshot special - Cassies Dreamer


1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT

Toss - SERGEI PROKOFIEV

[olddaddy]

Newspaperofrecord will be overbet

The 5 euros didnt ship in for a piece of the pie.

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by Fuss

lol. I tried to fix that but the 15 minutes edit time had passed. i saw you make the same mistake on the show Friday...


I'm looking at Races, I sometimes start at the Favorite and look for reasons to not to bet her. One mistake that I make frequently is to construct a case that is not entirely accurate. What I'm doing is trying too hard to justify betting a longer odds horse.

As a middle/longshot player its probably my biggest failing. I need to know when to give up and bet the logical instead of the illogical.

or better yet, just walk away. Taking a price you hate on a horse you don't really want is a gut-wrencher as often as not.

[Loserdave]

Friday
Most Likely: Game Winner
Best Value: Stillwater Cove
Toss: Jaywalk

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Fuss

lol. I tried to fix that but the 15 minutes edit time had passed. i saw you make the same mistake on the show Friday...


I'm looking at Races, I sometimes start at the Favorite and look for reasons to not to bet her. One mistake that I make frequently is to construct a case that is not entirely accurate. What I'm doing is trying too hard to justify betting a longer odds horse.

As a middle/longshot player its probably my biggest failing. I need to know when to give up and bet the logical instead of the illogical.

Im guilty of doing this exact thing at times as well.
It reminds me of something TLG said in another thread...."if you like betting the 4th best horse at 8-1, then this is the horse for you"-or something like that.
You come across horses you know are better than they look,and then try make the facts fit your theory rather than the other way around.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

I think Newspaperofrecord is the most likely winner of the entire two days.

She will also be the easiest winner when all is said and done. Wow, what a performance.