|
|
04-07-2016, 07:44 AM
|
#1
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 374
|
How often do races run to form?
Deciding whether or not not a race has run to form is open to interpretation
but for the sake of argument if the top three in the betting finish in the top three places (any order)
then that should be a rough indication that the race ran fairly close to the form book. (puts tin hat on )
If this is so then what proportion of races finish with the top three in the betting finishing in the top three places?
|
|
|
04-07-2016, 07:57 AM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,740
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
Deciding whether or not not a race has run to form is open to interpretation
but for the sake of argument if the top three in the betting finish in the top three places (any order)
then that should be a rough indication that the race ran fairly close to the form book. (puts tin hat on )
If this is so then what proportion of races finish with the top three in the betting finishing in the top three places?
|
what a question that is! the only answer i can give is that sometimes they do and sometimes they don't. and the times they do in pari mutuel wagering doesn't make up for the times they don't.
i have always looked at this game as the right horse to play is the one that you think is going to outrun his present form.
after losing for 3 consecutive years i knew i had to change things up a bit. so far i have been a very slight winner over the last 6 months. its under 1% ROI, but its at least a step in the right direction. (that is after the rebate). it might be because i have gone back to playing more NYRA and So. Cal that i can attribute the better results.
|
|
|
04-08-2016, 10:27 AM
|
#3
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
I used to look at the last couple of cards to see if the track has been running normally, assuming there was no drastic weather between the last card and today's. If the top 4 at the stretch call produced the winner in 80% of the races, then the track was considered to be running normally. That was a while ago and I no longer do that, so things may have changed since then.
|
|
|
04-08-2016, 10:32 AM
|
#4
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
Regarding whether or not an individual race has run to form, that probably varies by track, surface and surface condition. IMO, if my top 3 rankings produced the winner then the race was probably formful.
|
|
|
04-08-2016, 01:29 PM
|
#5
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
First you have to have a strong insight into the expected form to even know what "running to form" is going to be.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
04-08-2016, 06:45 PM
|
#6
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
Deciding whether or not not a race has run to form is open to interpretation
but for the sake of argument if the top three in the betting finish in the top three places (any order)
then that should be a rough indication that the race ran fairly close to the form book. (puts tin hat on ) ...
|
Our definition of a horse's form is different. Mine is based on the horse's past performances not the betting public's opinion. My contenders usually run to their form with exceptions which is one of the things I'm attempting to figure out why not. One of the problems I'm having is one of the non-contenders jumps up in their performance.
Quote:
... If this is so then what proportion of races finish with the top three in the betting finishing in the top three places?
|
I would expect this would occur only a small % of the time unless the field size is less than five or six.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 04-08-2016 at 06:46 PM.
|
|
|
04-10-2016, 10:25 PM
|
#7
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,950
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by zerosky
Deciding whether or not not a race has run to form is open to interpretation
but for the sake of argument if the top three in the betting finish in the top three places (any order)
then that should be a rough indication that the race ran fairly close to the form book. (puts tin hat on )
If this is so then what proportion of races finish with the top three in the betting finishing in the top three places?
|
I’ve never heard of “races running to form”. I have heard of horses running to form though. From a handicapping perspective that simply means that in today’s race a horse may have run similar to its previous races with similar conditions (Class, distance, etc.) in terms of its relative position in the pace scenario and finish position. Unfortunately, this comparison can only be made after the race is over. In terms of how it ran and finishes, might also confirm the condition the horse was in, but again only after the fact.
From a pre-race betting perspective these type of evaluations are totally ineffective. This is because they would be based on subjective assumptions that the horse is in fact in condition and actually entered in the race with intentions of winning it. Outsiders relying on past performance data have absolutely no way of reaching such an objective conclusion and as a result any opinion they may have becomes pure speculation.
.
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 05:35 AM
|
#8
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 374
|
Interesting answers, in the uk the racing post publishes what it calls a RTF% for each trainer
which indicates the percentage of a trainers runners who have 'run to form' over the past two weeks.
Its based upon each horses expected race rating with its actual rating obtained.
Anecdotally it seems to be worth looking out for.
There's an interesting article about it here If I had the time, patience and a hefty database
I would investigate using a similar figure for each race.
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 06:24 AM
|
#9
|
NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’ve never heard of “races running to form”. I have heard of horses running to form though. From a handicapping perspective that simply means that in today’s race a horse may have run similar to its previous races with similar conditions (Class, distance, etc.) in terms of its relative position in the pace scenario and finish position. Unfortunately, this comparison can only be made after the race is over. In terms of how it ran and finishes, might also confirm the condition the horse was in, but again only after the fact.
From a pre-race betting perspective these type of evaluations are totally ineffective. This is because they would be based on subjective assumptions that the horse is in fact in condition and actually entered in the race with intentions of winning it. Outsiders relying on past performance data have absolutely no way of reaching such an objective conclusion and as a result any opinion they may have becomes pure speculation.
.
|
Nitro, do you follow NYRA racing ? If yes, please tell me your thoughts on sundays 1st race. To me , I thought Id walk in and see my single and top pick , the 5 at 2/5. He was dead on the board (NY dead) as he was 7/5 ML AND there was a a scratch in the field. The 1 was crushed for no legitimate reason. Not just in the win pool but in the DDS . Nevertheless, I singled the 5 in the pick 5 , ex and sups. I didn't see any large moves on the 5 in any Exactas or DDs. The horse finally and slowly dropped down to almost his ML price. He won well. I am not red boarding some 8/5 in a 5 horse field. Just wondering if you can speak to how the board speaks to you as you imply. The 5 was the most in form horse in the race and the lone tactical horse. We all know horses can go out of form in 1/2 a second and we all know a lone speed can lose their advantage in 1/4 of a stride. Id appreciate your insights as to how the board and money might've pointed you to the 5 as in this case the board said the 5 is not where juice is flowing to.
Thanks
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 02:27 PM
|
#10
|
PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,542
|
Did anyone say the "board" can tip you off every single race?
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 02:35 PM
|
#11
|
EXCEL with SUPERFECTAS
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 10,206
|
If a horse drifts down to his morning line of 7/5, etc., then IMO he/she wasn't "dead on the board". People bet differently for different reasons. In this case it appears that the big money (or a good portion of the betting public), was waiting until late, waiting for the pool size to increase enough to damper the the effect on the odds, or making it appear that the 5 had some problem that was not evident in the PPs, etc.. Pool manipulation takes many forms so you have to be careful about what you "perceive" is happening, because you could be (probably are, quite often) completely wrong.
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 04:06 PM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
|
I think if you put it into the category of if I handicapped this race for 4 hours does the winner:
1)make a lot of sense
2)makes a little sense
3)could have kept on handicapping and looking at results and replays and never could have come to the conclusion that the winner made much sense and the marginal sense it did make would not be worth betting any sizable chunk of bank on.
Good enough way to gauge races and formfulness.
Fast horses win races and just about any of the top 92 percentile of speed figures win 80% or more of the races. I find this true on both dirt and turf. I trust this reality to the point I rarely track it long term anymore. To me I think it proves formfulness of races.
In the makes a little sense category marginal speed contenders that can improve via favorable race shape, 2nd start, new pace top, shipping to lesser circuit, dropping in class, natural improvement to lifetime norms 2nd, 3rd 4th etc off layoff, decent form horses with pedigrees to improve doing something bloodline oriented like routes and turf, FTS who make sense based on pedigree against a mediocre looking field. I'm sure we all have an array of improving factors and could make this list bigtime sizable.
Depending on the track, surface, or day or week I find the chaos/makes little sense number to be anywhere from 12-25%.
Last edited by CincyHorseplayer; 04-11-2016 at 04:15 PM.
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 04:47 PM
|
#13
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Did anyone say the "board" can tip you off every single race?
|
Today's Turf Paradise r2 is weird example:
off the turf and a bad ML. (i also have no free form for this race, should have bought TimeformUS)
ml......Doubles from R1 heav fav
1 = 6/1 ...24.20
2 = 4/1 ...22.60
3 = 7/2 ...23.20
4 = 5/2 ...22.40 (SLIGHTLY COLD)
5 = 15/1...122
6 = 8/5....9.80 (HOT)
ml......Doubles from R1 actual winner
1 = 6/1 ...39.80
2 = 4/1 ...24.60 (HOT)
3 = 7/2 ...37.00
4 = 5/2 ...37.20 (COLD)
5 = 15/1...214.80
6 = 8/5....22.40 (NEUTRAL)
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 04:48 PM
|
#14
|
Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by EMD4ME
Nitro, do you follow NYRA racing ? If yes, please tell me your thoughts on sundays 1st race. To me , I thought Id walk in and see my single and top pick , the 5 at 2/5. He was dead on the board (NY dead) as he was 7/5 ML AND there was a a scratch in the field. The 1 was crushed for no legitimate reason. Not just in the win pool but in the DDS . Nevertheless, I singled the 5 in the pick 5 , ex and sups. I didn't see any large moves on the 5 in any Exactas or DDs. The horse finally and slowly dropped down to almost his ML price. He won well. I am not red boarding some 8/5 in a 5 horse field. Just wondering if you can speak to how the board speaks to you as you imply. The 5 was the most in form horse in the race and the lone tactical horse. We all know horses can go out of form in 1/2 a second and we all know a lone speed can lose their advantage in 1/4 of a stride. Id appreciate your insights as to how the board and money might've pointed you to the 5 as in this case the board said the 5 is not where juice is flowing to.
Thanks
|
I find this ironic.
Redboarding used to be frowned upon on here.
When did it change, because I've always felt it was poor form on a handicapping forum?
|
|
|
04-11-2016, 04:55 PM
|
#15
|
clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
|
So knowing nothing at all about Turf Paradise R2 , if I were to use the board I'd toss the 4 from the top spot and use both 2 and 6 in the win spot.
for fun: Turf Paradise 2 $2.00 WN (PWHL) 2, 6 $4.00
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|