Anatomy of a long shot

[Tom]

Anatomy of a long shot-

So let’s dicuss a real race. I’m playing around with an approach that doesn’t use, or at least rely on pace or speed figure, just changes in a horse’s situation that might signal improvement today.

Opening day at Aqueduct, Race 5, #5, Lyrical Miracle, wins and pays $71.00.

Why so much, and how did he win?

I made him a contender, he had some postive angles going for him:

-3rd start off a layoff, some early speed last out
-positive barn change to a trainer who hits 25% with horses first time in his silks
- the rider who rode his to his onhly win is back on board today.
- not a proven loser, he has only lost three times at this level, and two of those were bookends around a layoff
- he is back at Aqueduct on the main, where his record is 3 0-1-1, so
- he had the second best back speed figure in the field

But is it enough to get past his not so appealing recent record and his high number of starts with only 1 win?

I could not throw him out, but I could not pull the trigger on himm either, and the whole point of my research is to find horses like this, and to bet them at big prices.

What are you thoughts on the race?
Anyone else play it, or better yet, have the winer?
How did you get him if you did, or why did you pass on him it you didn’t?

[Ocala Mike]

Had the winner and the exacta, thanks mostly to Serling:

From the Andy Serling thread -

tlg just had a $71.50 horse right on top (AQU Race 5), and the $361.50 exacta 1st and 3rd. Welcome back, Big A!

[cj]

He was right up with the other leader (the 7) in the Pace Projector in a race favoring those on/near the early lead with a big gap back to the others. I always give these kind a shot on dirt. On turf, I'm more skeptical, have to have speed figures that are in the ballpark.

[pandy]

I would imagine that Andy picked him because of the trainer change, but just a guess. The speed and fade angle was very week because he essentially was distanced in his last two starts at the same distance and a one mile race is not a good spot for a horse that crawls home every start. Speed and fade longshots are better bets in sprints.

Basically, the only angle that made any sense was the barn change. Without the trainer change, you'd have to hate your money to bet a horse like that, especially at the NYRA tracks, which are generally not kind to cheap speed horses that stop cold in the final quarter.


Two more trainer change winners today at Aqueduct, $20.80, $10.40, both going to trainers that have a higher win percentage than the former trainer.



According to Classhandicapper (on the Andy Serling thread), the new trainer (Donk) changed the horse's shoes and bit, and the horse was in good physical shape when they got it. But, things like that can make a huge difference. Sometimes when a trainers is struggling, and this horse's former trainer only had 1 win all year, the barn is not going to spend a lot of money making changes and that could be one of several reasons why they are ice cold and a trainer change helps.

[Tom]

So I guess I could just save myself a lot of time and listen to Andy and CJ!

[Overlay]

I don't have access to the past performances (so I can't say for sure), but from the elements already discussed, it sounds as if a multi-factor, full-field fair-odds line (such as the type that I develop) might have rated the horse as an overlay at those odds (even if not necessarily the one most probable winner of the race), and thus have been more likely to keep him on a bettor's radar, as opposed to a figure-based or elimination-based method of narrowing the field down to a single selection.

[Oracle]

My thought is if you have decided the horse is a contender, and the horse is sitting on the board at >30-1, then by definition he would qualify as an overlay and should absolutely be bet in some fashion.

This is where taking a long-run view (1,000 plays for example, or 1 years play) makes it easier to bet these longshots. they probably won't win today, but over 1,000 plays if your handicapping is sound you should catch your fair share.

Great handicapping to not draw a line through him!

[EMD4ME]

A bad favorite in that race, a key ingredient to betting a bomb ON TOP.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by pandy

I would imagine that Andy picked him because of the trainer change, but just a guess. The speed and fade angle was very week because he essentially was distanced in his last two starts at the same distance and a one mile race is not a good spot for a horse that crawls home every start. Speed and fade longshots are better bets in sprints.

Basically, the only angle that made any sense was the barn change. Without the trainer change, you'd have to hate your money to bet a horse like that, especially at the NYRA tracks, which are generally not kind to cheap speed horses that stop cold in the final quarter.


Two more trainer change winners today at Aqueduct, $20.80, $10.40, both going to trainers that have a higher win percentage than the former trainer.



According to Classhandicapper (on the Andy Serling thread), the new trainer (Donk) changed the horse's shoes and bit, and the horse was in good physical shape when they got it. But, things like that can make a huge difference. Sometimes when a trainers is struggling, and this horse's former trainer only had 1 win all year, the barn is not going to spend a lot of money making changes and that could be one of several reasons why they are ice cold and a trainer change helps.

That's the guy who trained Seattle Slew. (The previous trainer)

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Tom

Anatomy of a long shot-

So let’s dicuss a real race. I’m playing around with an approach that doesn’t use, or at least rely on pace or speed figure, just changes in a horse’s situation that might signal improvement today.

Opening day at Aqueduct, Race 5, #5, Lyrical Miracle, wins and pays $71.00.

Why so much, and how did he win?

I made him a contender, he had some postive angles going for him:

-3rd start off a layoff, some early speed last out
-positive barn change to a trainer who hits 25% with horses first time in his silks
- the rider who rode his to his onhly win is back on board today.
- not a proven loser, he has only lost three times at this level, and two of those were bookends around a layoff
- he is back at Aqueduct on the main, where his record is 3 0-1-1, so
- he had the second best back speed figure in the field

But is it enough to get past his not so appealing recent record and his high number of starts with only 1 win?

I could not throw him out, but I could not pull the trigger on himm either, and the whole point of my research is to find horses like this, and to bet them at big prices.

What are you thoughts on the race?
Anyone else play it, or better yet, have the winer?
How did you get him if you did, or why did you pass on him it you didn’t?

I looked at the race briefly (as I usually do with the races at Aqueduct)...and found absolutely nothing to like about this longshot winner. And the thought that this form reversal was due to a change in shoes has me feverously searching to buy the best running shoes that I can find...because I am entered in a marathon race this Sunday in Naperville, Illinois.

[Cholly]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I looked at the race briefly (as I usually do with the races at Aqueduct)...and found absolutely nothing to like about this longshot winner. And the thought that this form reversal was due to a change in shoes has me feverously searching to buy the best running shoes that I can find...because I am entered in a marathon race this Sunday in Naperville, Illinois.

Good luck on Sunday! Where does Timeform have you on their Pace Projector?

[MJC922]

I looked at the race after the fact and like EMD's thought of a vulnerable favorite being the entry point to catch this type of horse. IMO the chalk was ok on class but ranked dead last on early pace, and not just the pace figure but zero Quirin points too. On dirt that's a Quirin 101 situation to 'go fishing'.

About the winner, he's tied as the Quirin speed point leader with 6 -- having no 7 or 8 in the race is a decent indication the early pace might project to the soft side which helps. I (as did CJ) had him pegged for 2nd on early pace. Looking at 'back numbers', had his 15Dec14 race tied for the best number any of these had ever run but it's an isolated number, he has run that number once in 22 tries, 22-1 ballpark makes sense, he's 34-1.

I personally don't see much value here, I see more of the random element of the game popping up. These things just happen when the wheel is spun enough times the horse finally feels like running. IMO winning longshots like this are typically just single-factor horses.

[pandy]

And the key with this horse was, if not for the trainer change, I don't see how anyone in their right mind could bet the horse. He had been trounced against similar at the same distance in his last two starts. Long term, without the trainer change, this type of horse will produce a huge negative ROI. There are a lot of good longshot angles, this horse only had one, positive trainer change.

[MJC922]

You could very easily size up this race as the heavy favorite has no early speed at all, I'm going to take the top two early pace horses on a stab ticket, hope they don't knock heads and hope it carries at a price. It's superficial but you're lashing out at the crowd where they're most vulnerable. I'm fine with people saying in hindsight the trainer change is the 'reason'. After the fact it's a tighter 'fit', before the fact I'm not so sure. A solid understanding of the long term percentages of the game with respect to running styles and prices is equally as valid IMO and just as obvious before the race.

[Tom]

The key to my interest was that he was not a proven loser at the class.
He only had a handful of races at the class and several positives in those races. Every race above $16knw2 was a throw out for me.

As a long time Finger Lakes player, this is a familiar pattern. We call it the "form horse."