Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

looking further into the gold trading today, someone walked up to the window and laid down $2 million to short contracts and there was someone ready for him on the other side. that is what i call strength and signals to me that the shorts are going to be in a heap of trouble with their trades and gold is going back up to $1370 for now.

the guy that plunked down the $2mil has been taken to the woodshed for further punishment.

[AltonKelsey]

You keep insisting it was a 2 million dollar trade,

when it was a 2 million ounce trade.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

You keep insisting it was a 2 million dollar trade,

when it was a 2 million ounce trade.

shame on you, you are not paying attention.

the $2 million was the amount of money sent into the futures market. i don't know the exact margin requirements these days but that is all the guy put up with his own money. he might be upside down now and will probably need to come up with more money to keep his short alive.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

shame on you, you are not paying attention.

the $2 million was the amount of money sent into the futures market. i don't know the exact margin requirements these days but that is all the guy put up with his own money. he might be upside down now and will probably need to come up with more money to keep his short alive.

if it was a 2 mil ounce trade, that means every 1 dollar move is $2 mill up /down in the trade.

if you think referring to it as a $2 million dollar trade makes any sense at all, you're in deep trouble.

" Shortly after 9:30 a.m. Friday, approximately 2 million ounces of gold were traded, which carries a value of around $2.6 billion. The sudden surge in activity came at a time when volatility in the gold market was at its lowest levels since 2005."

You're also wrong about the 2 million. That's not the margin. Not even close

[lamboguy]

why would a guy with $2.6 billion in his pocket decide to short gold at 9:00 a.m. ?

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

why would a guy with $2.6 billion in his pocket decide to short gold at 9:00 a.m. ?

I think I'm going to leave it at that, since you're not serious. Wasting my time

[_______]

Originally Posted by jms62

Glad you play in the mutuel pools.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/329212...sharply-higher

This is what I was talking about in my response to Lambo, jms.

Note the second paragraph. Reduced demand is going to pressure raw material pricing until the refineries (and chemical plants which are also offline) return to service.

Production in the U.S. has moved onshore compared to the last time a hurricane hit this area. The impact on production is minimal. The impact on refined product is comparatively larger. The crack spread widens in this situation.

This is something that won't last but when Lambo noted that the hurricane wasn't driving oil prices higher, I tried to explain the economic reason that would be so.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by _______

https://seekingalpha.com/news/329212...sharply-higher

This is what I was talking about in my response to Lambo, jms.

Note the second paragraph. Reduced demand is going to pressure raw material pricing until the refineries (and chemical plants which are also offline) return to service.

Production in the U.S. has moved onshore compared to the last time a hurricane hit this area. The impact on production is minimal. The impact on refined product is comparatively larger. The crack spread widens in this situation.

This is something that won't last but when Lambo noted that the hurricane wasn't driving oil prices higher, I tried to explain the economic reason that would be so.

I took it you were referring to end product which should see and is seeing a spike,

[lamboguy]

you guys should take a look at what gold does now after North Korea fired a missile right over Japan a little while ago.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Originally Posted by jms62

R.N. Elliot died a poor man. Elliot Wave with its constant renumbering after the fact is extremely hazardous to your wealth.

Well, to be fair, he developed his theory during the Great Depression - when few were building up wealth, and he retired early due to health reasons.

But yes, the wave counts are often "back fitted" to explain things, which does take away from their predictive power. And when an external news event like North Korea launching a missile over Japan (and towards the U.S.) that lands in the North Pacific, it'll shake up the wave count for sure.

And since that occurred during lock-up, it caught the futures traders off-guard too...

[reckless]

Not sure where this belongs... but to some of us, good news!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-resignation

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer has resigned effective in mid-October, giving President Donald Trump scope to start reshaping the leadership of the U.S. central bank sooner than expected and clouding the longer-term outlook for monetary policy.

Fischer, 73, was appointed to the Fed by President Barack Obama in 2014 to a term as vice chair that would have expired in June 2018. He cited “personal reasons” in a resignation letter Wednesday to Trump for leaving on or around Oct. 13.

[lamboguy]

in the overnight session. down about $16 so far. this may be a real good spot to make a buy if price stays down in the morning.

i was thinking that it could retrace between $1290 and $1320. sometimes it hard to get the bottom, that's why its a decent buy here.

[reckless]

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017...-closing-high/

And to think I gave you guys a yuuuggge opportunity to ride this wave to prosperity way before the 2016 Election of our great president, Donald J. Trump.

Some simply do not like money.

[Jeff P]

I'll preface this post by pointing out I have a somewhat limited knowledge of the market.

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription.

I've been pleased with their recommendations and service overall. (Imo, money well spent.)

But today I ran into a lifetime first -- and the reason I'm making this post.

One of the companies I bought as a result of a Motley Fool recommendation, Shopify (ticker symbol SHOP) ran aground today.

I pulled up Yahoo Finance this morning and noticed SHOP was down about 6.5% shortly after market open.

I thought this kind of odd because, at least at the time, no news stories had been posted.

About 45 minutes into the trading day I saw a video where Jim Cramer basically said "time to sellify Shopify" because of negative news posted on Twitter by Andrew Left of Cintron Research.

Cramer specifically mentioned the video at the following link:
https://t.co/QBKEIVdpTa

I watched the video... and was both amazed and disgusted by what was being said.

(I highly suggest you watch the video.)

FYI, this was the first time in my life that an analalyst -- ANY analyst -- had said anything THAT negative about ANY of the companies I've owned.

In hindsight I fully realize:

I had been periodically picking up shares based on the story... that of an ecommerce technology company with a solid software platform undergoing significant "growth." (Same thing could be said about AMZN early on.)

Apparently, Shopify's "growth" was never driven by the kind of customer base the run up in share price was based on.

If that turns out to be true, or if there is a high likelihood of that turning out to be true:

The correct thing to do is get out.

And that's exactly what I did.

Note to self:

From now on no new shares based on someone else's recommendation alone (no matter how good that someone's track record.)

I resolve to, at the very least, take 5 minutes out of my day -- and actually LOOK at the company's website.



-jp

.

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Not at all ashamed to admit that every few years I've shelled out a few hundred dollars for a Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription..

I used to subscribe to them, too. They give solid advice. They recommended Chipotle. Why did I sell it at 45, though!?

I've thought about subscribing again. What I like about them is that it saves me a lot of time having to screen companies. I can cherry pick their recommendations which are usually solid.