show betting

[Half Smoke]

.....................


I took another look at this data from Barry Meadow's latest book - culled from over 800,000 races

the fact that show bettors did so well betting odds on favorites is astonishing to me

they cut into the track takeout by about 10% - losing only about 8% of their dollars wagered

how could that be? you would think with average payouts being so low they would have to win so often to do that - that this wouldn't be possible

and also breakage cuts into their profits so much

to me, it's all very puzzling

[davew]

and breakage can sometimes cut heavily into those low pay-offs.


Does Barry have a further breakdown by horses per race or whether the breakage was .10 or .05 / $ ?

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by davew

and breakage can sometimes cut heavily into those low pay-offs.


Does Barry have a further breakdown by horses per race or whether the breakage was .10 or .05 / $ ?

sorry, I don't know that
I don't actually own the book "The Skeptical Handicapper"
I got what I posted from Amazon's "look inside" feature which part of their sales effort on the book



*

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.....................

I took another look at this data from Barry Meadow's latest book - culled from over 800,000 races

the fact that show bettors did so well betting odds on favorites is astonishing to me

to me, it's all very puzzling

And rightfully so! Don’t believe everything you read!
You’re far better off in the long run making Dutch Win bets for one major reason.
You can get a much better idea of the return value. This way you can effectively decide to pass or play.
When betting to Show you have no idea what you’re return might be (especially w/favorites)

There’s an old expression that goes “When betting to Show you’re betting with scared money”.
(In other words, you're attempting a psychologically safe bet on a selection you've made that you really don't have much faith in to begin with)
.