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Old 12-19-2018, 06:30 PM   #121
vegasone
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Now I have a database.

It isn't exactly fun loading PPs and result charts into a database every week and writing formulas to assign running styles, pace projections, do chart analysis, do bias determination, upgrade and downgrade horses, etc.. It's a boatload of work and sometimes all the work, analysis, and fine tuning yields insights of no betting value.


No pain, no gain.




Make sure you have plenty of error checking, foreign horses with same name, weird times, change of distance, surface, etc. Beyond 10 years, horses with same names appear. Lots of things to be aware of.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:46 PM   #122
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It's when you put a quarter horse in with the same name that you really screw up the times.
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Old 12-19-2018, 06:59 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by vegasone View Post
Now I have a database.

It isn't exactly fun loading PPs and result charts into a database every week and writing formulas to assign running styles, pace projections, do chart analysis, do bias determination, upgrade and downgrade horses, etc.. It's a boatload of work and sometimes all the work, analysis, and fine tuning yields insights of no betting value.


No pain, no gain.




Make sure you have plenty of error checking, foreign horses with same name, weird times, change of distance, surface, etc. Beyond 10 years, horses with same names appear. Lots of things to be aware of.
Thanks. I've already run into a few name issues.
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Old 12-21-2018, 12:10 PM   #124
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
If they are using more energy early in the race to get superior position they will have less energy left at the end to to hold their lead. Superior position will be eaten up quickly if it uses up energy inefficiently, especially if used in a valley pace pattern.



2017 KYD - Running style, and efficient energy distribution caused Tapwrit(TAP) to peak in ft/sec at about 4.5 furlongs, - in contrast to Irish War Cry(IWC), and Gormley(GORM) who each peaked at about 4 furlongs.


Tapwrit then happened to win the 2017 Belmont Stakes as one of the contenders.
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Old 12-21-2018, 11:02 PM   #125
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I agree with the consensus here. Thaskalos stated it well. Application of theory, to forecast, is of primary concern to both the horseplayer ($$), and to the critical eye...

As Bob Philo and Cratos, and others (as well at times myself) have found, Horse Racing is a terribly fascinating subject.

There has been some 'pushback' when posters repeatedly continue down the esoteric path, without application.

:
What is often misunderstood by many handicappers that what makes something scientific is it's ability to predict future events, which goes beyond explaining present events. It is not just some abstract theorizing apart from real events. For example, in the field of Psychiatry, Freudian analysis can explain present events based on the past but is unscientific in it's inability to predict the future - the very soul and definition of scientific theory, as well as handicapping. That's why science plays such an important role in handicapping. That is why it behooves the horseplayer to get a grounding in the basic sciences
that apply to racing and holding the Freudian-like traditional theories of handicapping up to the predictive scientific laws. Many of them do not stand up to rigorous scientific scrutiny. Yes the science can be misused, like anything else, which is why a basic understanding of which is essential to using it properly. There is no excuse for not keeping up with the latest research in exercise physiology which shows how to apply the laws of physics to the particular instance of horses racing. The predictive nature of science can only be ignored at one's expense. Do not confuse the fact that some have had success following unscientific beliefs which became traditional only because their competitors methods were even less founded in scientific theory. "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king"
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Old 12-22-2018, 12:49 PM   #126
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Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
What is often misunderstood by many handicappers that what makes something scientific is it's ability to predict future events, which goes beyond explaining present events. It is not just some abstract theorizing apart from real events. For example, in the field of Psychiatry, Freudian analysis can explain present events based on the past but is unscientific in it's inability to predict the future - the very soul and definition of scientific theory, as well as handicapping. That's why science plays such an important role in handicapping. That is why it behooves the horseplayer to get a grounding in the basic sciences
that apply to racing and holding the Freudian-like traditional theories of handicapping up to the predictive scientific laws. Many of them do not stand up to rigorous scientific scrutiny. Yes the science can be misused, like anything else, which is why a basic understanding of which is essential to using it properly. There is no excuse for not keeping up with the latest research in exercise physiology which shows how to apply the laws of physics to the particular instance of horses racing. The predictive nature of science can only be ignored at one's expense. Do not confuse the fact that some have had success following unscientific beliefs which became traditional only because their competitors methods were even less founded in scientific theory. "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king"
That sure cleared things up! Can you or can't you show us how you apply your scientific methods to a yet to be run race?
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Old 12-22-2018, 01:08 PM   #127
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We tried that twice already - no takers.
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Old 12-23-2018, 03:17 PM   #128
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That sure cleared things up! Can you or can't you show us how you apply your scientific methods to a yet to be run race?
You need look no further than Robert Fisher's last post to see how Taprit's more efficient running style compared to that of Irish War Cry and Gormley in the Derby was in part predictive of his win in the later run Belmont.

I'm using this simple example since Robert kindly already did the pace analysis, which health issues currently prevent me from doing. A better example would be on how a horse's figure would be poorer than expected due to deviation from even distribution of energy due to an inefficient pace pattern and can be found on the thread on pace patterns I was able to begin when my health permitted me to analyse and handicap a race properly.
The same principles still hold. I am just not currently able to apply them to the detailed analysis of a given race at present. In any case, I'm sure that such examples can be found in the pace patterns of many of the races using the pace patterns indicated by the pace figures in the TFUS PPs.
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