THIS changes everything . . .

[Blenheim]

Take a look at the Bluegrass Stakes video of EQ and HM coming down the stretch. Notice anything unusual about the left front of EQ? And about five or six strides out from the sixteenth pole it appears HM breaks stride, I think he jumps a “shadow” . . . there appears to be a depression in the track, he breaks stride, switches leads . . . I can’t tell if he gets back to the correct lead or not, but that break in stride cost him the race.

So, if HM wins the Bluegrass will EQ be Derby favorite?

Allow me to digress further. Take a holistic view of the pattern of development of EQ (and some others). Where is he in his cycle, is he cycling up or cycling down. The current state of the breed number of starts data indicates seven starts and that number is dwindling. How many starts for EQ and how many starts for KA? Are they cycling up or down or have they plateaued? How long have they been prepping for this race and how many races and timed workouts (furlongs) have they run compared to the other top competitors and what is the allowable number of furlongs before they morph into another Dennis’ Moment, Eight Rings, Coliseum, Concert Tour and that McGuaghey horse, Greatest Honor.

Of course, you saw the video of the stretch run of the Florida Derby where Oritz and KA leans on JohnnyV and SS, SS fails to switch leads and comes up three lengths short. If KA doesn’t lean of SS and SS switches leads, how does that change the LP and BRIS speed figure for SS? Have you seen the 4/17 work for SS and the flawless lead switch? This colt runs with verve and the trainer says he likes to work. How many lengths will he gain in the stretch should he have a clear run for the wire?

Speaking of workouts, take a comparative look at the works and what does that comparison indicate. How long a work and how sharp; who goes 5f, who goes 6f, who goes 7f, how fast and where are they in sequence . . . who is watching whom and how do they adjust their works accordingly – who is leaving something in the tank and who is puttin’ in the all-out long smokin’ works?

Haven't read much about breeding. Does breeding still matter in the Kentucky Derby?

I’ve read about the RAN, the Triads, the last three-eights, the highest last LP, the Conduit Mare, the X Position or the X Files and gawd knows I’ve missed a few . . . is there anywhere out there a comprehensive handicapping system for the Kentucky Derby . . . something like pace parameters?

I haven’t been followin’ em’ much this year until now. Had a great deal of fun handicappin’ this running of the Kentucky Derby and I still ain’t done.

Lookin’ forward to the race, should be a good one.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Of course, you saw the video of the stretch run of the Florida Derby where Oritz and KA leans on JohnnyV and SS, SS fails to switch leads and comes up three lengths short. If KA doesn’t lean of SS and SS switches leads, how does that change the LP and BRIS speed figure for SS? Have you seen the 4/17 work for SS and the flawless lead switch? This colt runs with verve and the trainer says he likes to work. How many lengths will he gain in the stretch should he have a clear run for the wire?

I can't find a head-on replay but in the Florida Derby it looks more like Soup and Sandwich came out (as he did in his prior start and subsequent workouts) than Known Agenda leaning in. Soup and Sandwich has not switched leads appropriately in any of his starts.

Even in the workout on 4/17/21, Soup and Sandwich did not switch leads perfectly. He was late by about 2 strides, his head was cocked to the right, and it looks like his rider had to drop his left rein. Compare to his workmate, whose lead change was nearly imperceptible and occurred exactly when they straightened up out of the turn.

Furthermore, his most recent work (4/23/21) was atrocious. He was completely unmanageable before breaking off to the extent that he passed his workmate (who I presume he was supposed to track) and continued to be tough to handle all the way around the turn. He was so unmanageable he inappropriately swapped to his right lead on the turn briefly before going back to his left. The workout time was pretty slow, which I doubt was by design.

Soup and Sandwich is looking more and more like a run-off type to me based on his Florida Derby running line (mouth open, jock's feet on the dashboard) and his morning antics at Churchill. They should just let him rip in the Derby and see if he's another Spend A Buck because their attempts to restrain him or get him to switch leads have not been fruitful.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I can't find a head-on replay but in the Florida Derby...

Vimeo

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

https://vimeo.com/541371273

Thank you. Camera switch right at the moment of truth but it looks at least like a 50-50 deal. Either way, it is clear from his other performances the horse has issues switching leads so one can't dismiss that from his Florida Derby effort with any confidence.

By the way, I had a question on how to interpret the Triple Crown chart you put together every year. For the Florida Derby, there was a 'blue' bias designation that I presume means the track was favoring closers. How does one interpret the frontrunner's efforts (i.e., Soup and Sandwich)? Do we only upgrade his finish position or can we say he would have earned faster early pace figures on a fairer surface?

Trying to figure out if he has the speed to tussle with Rock Your World early if that one decides to send.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Thank you. Camera switch right at the moment of truth but it looks at least like a 50-50 deal. Either way, it is clear from his other performances the horse has issues switching leads so one can't dismiss that from his Florida Derby effort with any confidence.

By the way, I had a question on how to interpret the Triple Crown chart you put together every year. For the Florida Derby, there was a 'blue' bias designation that I presume means the track was favoring closers. How does one interpret the frontrunner's efforts (i.e., Soup and Sandwich)? Do we only upgrade his finish position or can we say he would have earned faster early pace figures on a fairer surface?

Trying to figure out if he has the speed to tussle with Rock Your World early if that one decides to send.

That is a tough call. I haven't reviewed the day yet in detail to see if I agree with the blue. It sure did appear that way but probably have enough run backs to judge better now. That said, I wouldn't upgrade the figures. It is already built in the pace figures to an extent though hard to put an exact number on it.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by cj

That is a tough call. I haven't reviewed the day yet in detail to see if I agree with the blue. It sure did appear that way but probably have enough run backs to judge better now. That said, I wouldn't upgrade the figures. It is already built in the pace figures to an extent though hard to put an exact number on it.

Thanks. Obviously we have to wait for post positions, but there are a couple in here that seem like their only real weapon is their early speed (Soup and Sandwich, Midnight Bourbon) and a couple more that have good early speed and only modest ability to finish in a route (Highly Motivated, Mandaloun, Medina Spirit).

I was kind of counting on Rock Your World taking kickback in the face for the first time but not convinced he won't get an Authentic-like trip at this point.

[taxicab]

I'll comment on the horses mentioned in the thread.
Highly Motivated: Agree with the OP,he might be a little shadow aware.....but I don't see that as a problem.......In terms of the cycle,Chad has him pitched perfect for the Derby......I just don't know if he wants the 10th furlong.
Essential Quality: Never worry about Brad Cox horses cycling up......they just keep gaining weight and getting stronger.......FWIW: Monomoy Girl looks "cycled out"......her right front looked a little too stiff for my liking in her last.
Soup and Sandwich: We know one thing,he has to work in company.....that's for sure.He's still super green.....and very talented.......he's going to be really good around Breeders Cup time.I'm with Spalding.......just send him hard......at this point in his career that's probably what works.
Known Agenda: I like the fact that he was battled tested against really good horses in his 2yo season.......and then came around recently again as a 3yo.
I don't worry about his antics in the Florida Derby.......Irad likes to keep stuff interesting.........just don't let the track come up muddy.

[burnsy]

The problem for me in the Blue Grass is Highly Motivated. Did he suddenly get better? Which can happen and I would be totally burned. Or is the Blue Grass not really a key race ? Those horses in the Gotham appeared to be stinkers to me and he was no where. It’s a tough call. But the reason I kind of want to bet against EQ is you had to work your ass off to beat a horse like that . Like I said, they are 3 maybe that horse (Highly Motivated ) stepped up. But after the Wood I gotta doubt it a little. Gonna look elsewhere. He got beat by horses that seem like skunks to me .

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The problem for me in the Blue Grass is Highly Motivated. Did he suddenly get better?

He won an overnight Stake on the first BC card, the day they ran the five BC Juvenile races, and got the highest Beyer figure of the day. He ran one Beyer point faster in the Blue Grass, almost five months to the day later. What exactly is your definition of suddenly?

[Curln22]

It was H.M. First try around two turns, he set the pace of a 4 month layoff..

This horse may move forward big time..

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by burnsy

The problem for me in the Blue Grass is Highly Motivated. Did he suddenly get better? Which can happen and I would be totally burned. Or is the Blue Grass not really a key race ? Those horses in the Gotham appeared to be stinkers to me and he was no where. It’s a tough call. But the reason I kind of want to bet against EQ is you had to work your ass off to beat a horse like that . Like I said, they are 3 maybe that horse (Highly Motivated ) stepped up. But after the Wood I gotta doubt it a little. Gonna look elsewhere. He got beat by horses that seem like skunks to me .

You're ignoring the eventful opening furlong that HM had to negotiate in that Gotham. He broke in a tangle and then got shutoff and checked when trying to reach a contending position out of the chute. Finished with interest.

That said, HM has been a horrendous horse from the gate. He's had gate issues in every single start, even in the Blue Grass where he was off a step slow. That's a problem for him because it seems like his primary weapon at a route is going to be his tactical speed. In the sprints where he's stalked the pace he hasn't really "switched off" but rather stays on the bit and tugs at the rider until the button is pushed. In a couple of starts he hasn't switched leads readily or swapped back to his left. In the Blue Grass he switched back near the tire tracks from the starting gate but many tiring horses do the same and as mentioned it was his first 2 turn race. He was well clear of third and gave the in-form 2yo champ all he could handle.

His record is somewhat reminiscent of Funny Cide's in 2003, with a strong sprint resume, good but not great efforts beyond 7 furlongs, and a questionable pedigree for a classic distance. Nevertheless, off his running lines he's on the improve, and could get first run--if he breaks decently and establishes good position. The question then becomes two-fold: (1) does he get first run on a loose-on-the-lead or a softened up Rock Your World? and (2) can he clear and hold off the closers?

Chad Brown has shown he can get a horse to progress to a classic win after a couple of losses. In fact, one of his other major 3yos, Crowded Trade, has basically an identical record to his 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing.

[Blenheim]

“I thought he breezed really well and it went exactly how I wanted,” Brown said. “I wasn't afraid to give him a good solid breeze and he did it and he did it well, with some in reserve too. He got over the track well, which I really wanted to see. He had been galloping well over it, but really, when you get to see a breeze, you can see more, obviously.”

I found it interesting and quite remarkable that Brown has this colt coming in as fit as other top contenders having run fewer furlongs in a shorter period of time. I think the works on the Belmont tr.t made all the difference.