Lower Claiming Price and In For Tag in OC

[Maverick58034]

Hey everyone,

I was curious as to your thoughts on horses that are either A) entered in for the lower end of the claiming prices (i.e. CLM10000(10-8), entered in for 8000), and B) entered in for a claiming price in an Optional Claming race (i.e. OC100k, in for 100,000 tag).

While I have not done any serious data studies, I have noticed that horses that meet either of these qualifications seem to win less than their counterparts. This could be a fluke, as I have not compiled reliable data (this is only an observation).

My thoughts in the situation are that in case A) the trainer could not find a race at the price he/she desires, so they make it work, or perhaps the racing secretary needs to fill the race, or maybe the trainer is trying to dump the horse off while still picking up a nice purse. In case B) It has always seemed to me that the trainer is really trying to get the horse claimed, and may not be in the best of shape.

Anywho, I was curious as to your guys thoughts on this.

--Mike

[cj]

I think with B, it just depends on the quality of the horses with allowance conditions in the race. The horses entered to be claimed are usually out of conditions, and not good enough for stakes.Towards the end of the year, and early in the year when written for horses 4yo and up, the claimers and usually stronger than the allowance horses.

A definite bad sign is a horse that meets the allowance conditions, but is still entered to be claimed. This doesn't happen all that often, but is worth noting when it does.

[ntheiroff]

In A) there is usually a 2# allowance, if the horse is entered to be claimed for 8K. I never saw much sense in giving up $1000/#. I usually take it as though the owner/trainer WANTS to lose the horse.

[Pgh. Gere]

Maverick

Agree with Cj as to scenario B, with Allowance / Optional claimers.

With A, that would be interesting to study. Be sure that those are open claimers you are looking at and that the LBs off is for price and not conditions, ie non winner since two months ago.

Another angle to look at, if the horse is entered for 8 and maybe switching to or using an apprentice rider. 5lb bug plus the other 2 etc. You may or may not consider weight into your handicapping, but trainers do. Riding with 113 or 115 verse the field all in at 122, may make the difference.

[Fastracehorse]

Originally Posted by Maverick58034

Hey everyone,

I was curious as to your thoughts on horses that are either A) entered in for the lower end of the claiming prices (i.e. CLM10000(10-8), entered in for 8000), and B) entered in for a claiming price in an Optional Claming race (i.e. OC100k, in for 100,000 tag).

While I have not done any serious data studies, I have noticed that horses that meet either of these qualifications seem to win less than their counterparts. This could be a fluke, as I have not compiled reliable data (this is only an observation).

My thoughts in the situation are that in case A) the trainer could not find a race at the price he/she desires, so they make it work, or perhaps the racing secretary needs to fill the race, or maybe the trainer is trying to dump the horse off while still picking up a nice purse. In case B) It has always seemed to me that the trainer is really trying to get the horse claimed, and may not be in the best of shape.

Anywho, I was curious as to your guys thoughts on this.

--Mike

On A): If a horse is entered for 8k in a 10k-8k claimer the trainer gets a slight weight break. This can signal a live bet much like the bug does.

On B) Horses in for first time tags can be dangerous - I give them special attention.

I don't have exact stats for you either I just know that A) and B) are part of my arsenal for live ones.

fffastt

[GlenninOhio]

Originally Posted by cj

A definite bad sign is a horse that meets the allowance conditions, but is still entered to be claimed. This doesn't happen all that often, but is worth noting when it does.

I think on balance you are correct, CJ, but a possible scenario for entering for the tag even though the conditions can be met is that the connections would prefer not to lose these conditions if the horse wins and either they don't feel the horse will be claimed or the tag is very high and/or well above what they're into the horse for (perhaps an $80k or $100k tag).

Under these admittedly very rare circumstances the horse would not be a toss.