Doug Salvatore's great piece on the Derby figure...

[highnote]

Charles Carroll in "Handicapping Speed" talks about the effects of wind in QH races and gives computer code which makes an adjustment for wind.

If I recall the quote correctly... Beyer called Carroll's book, "Thoughtful and literate."

[cj]

Originally Posted by highnote

Charles Carroll in "Handicapping Speed" talks about the effects of wind in QH races and gives computer code which makes an adjustment for wind.

If I recall the quote correctly... Beyer called Carroll's book, "Thoughtful and literate."

That was actually the first book I consulted after the Derby!

[highnote]

Carroll's is the only book I can recall reading that tried to quantify the effect of wind.

Beyer talked about one of his Harvard classmates, Sheldon, (who kind of invented the speed figures Beyer now uses), making adjustments for the wind.

I can't remember if Beyer mentions what those adjustments were, though.

Nick Mordin also had a idea of making wind adjustments based on the movements of leaves on the trees. Apparently, there is a scientist or some kind of scholar who noted the movements of leaves and was able to estimate the wind speed. If you see leaves gently moving then the wind might be 0 to 5 mph. If you can see the white undersides of leaves then the wind might be 30 or more mph. Interesting notion. I forget the name of this. I'll ask him if he remembers.

[highnote]

The big challenge with trying to measure the effect of wind on an oval track like Churchill is that on the backstretch the wind is blowing the same direction as on the homestretch therefore any wind effect could be negated. Same with a cross-wind. So I don't see how wind could have much of an overall effect unless it was swirling or unless the horses were running into a headwind for part of the race and then the wind died suddenly.

In my opinion, it would be best to wait a race or two for some of the runners and then go back and make a projected variant for the Derby using the future performances of Derby runners as a guide.

[Doza]

Originally Posted by highnote

The big challenge with trying to measure the effect of wind on an oval track like Churchill is that on the backstretch the wind is blowing the same direction as on the homestretch therefore any wind effect could be negated. Same with a cross-wind. So I don't see how wind could have much of an overall effect unless it was swirling or unless the horses were running into a headwind for part of the race and then the wind died suddenly.

In my opinion, it would be best to wait a race or two for some of the runners and then go back and make a projected variant for the Derby using the future performances of Derby runners as a guide.

True, but in the derby they ran straight into the headwind twice, and were only downwind once (the backstretch)

[bks]

Cj is right. Only the Derby had a long run-up into a big wind on Derby Day. No other races have comparative value.

To accept Beyer's number requires concluding every horse but one regressed off its latest figure, despite the fact most were being pointed for the race, and despite the fact that visually, CC ran pretty much the race he's been running, with virtually the same results, for the last four races.

Salvatore selects two horses who ran at or better what may have been expected of them to make his silly case (one of which ran on synthetic last out). He ignores that EVERY Derby is run by 3-y-os that are carrying 126 lbs for the first time and going 1 1/4 for the first time. The question is: Why was the race so slow THIS time? The answer is obvious:

IT WASN'T. THE PACE WASN'T SLOW. AT ALL. AND THE RACE WASN'T SLOW.

23.04 into that breeze was a VERY fast fraction. It took a toll on all but the one very, very good animal (CC) who was near the pace Look at where Uncle Sign finished. Look at where Chitu ( a nice horse, but distance limited) finished. Samraat was more than 5 lengths behind CC despite a similar trip. Rosie's horse was unable to keep up.

This was a big effort by a very, very good horse. Downgrade it at your own risk.

[Big Sal]

Originally Posted by garyoz

I think that Len Ragozin has been saying wind is one of the top factors for about 4 or 5 decades (and subsequently Thorograph) but has been discounted by short-cut figure makers who never account for it. That's why good figs are priced how they are priced.

So, if the Ragozin figures do you such a great job of properly factoring in wind...

Why did California Chrome get a 7.25 Ragozin figure...which makes him the slowest Kentucky Derby winner since 1974.

That doesn't add up to me...

Ragozin = Gold Standard in accounting for wind.

Ragozin = Slowest Ky Derby figure by a winner in the last 40 years.

[thaskalos]

This discussion may not lead to a conclusion...but it has accomplished one thing; it has made me excited about the upcoming Preakness. My initial opinion was that CC would be unbeatable in Baltimore...but now I am looking forward to betting against him.

[Big Sal]

Originally Posted by cj

The Derby was run between 2 and 3 seconds slower than if there was no wind. That is fact.

You're saying the race would have been run 12 to 18 lengths faster if there were no wind...and this is a stone cold fact?

I saw your chart earlier, which suggests the wind slowed the Kentucky Derby runners by a 0.81 second margin in relation to the 8.5 furlong route races.

When Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby ... he did it into the teeth of a reported 24-mile per hour head-wind through the stretch.

If a 15-to-20 mile per hour headwind slows the race down by 2 to 3 seconds ... I guess Big Brown's final time of 2:01.82 would have been about 1:58.82 had the wind not been blowing?

I don't know man.

Ragozin
Big Brown: -0.75
California Chrome: 7.25

[Big Sal]

Originally Posted by cj

Second, on Derby day, the track was watered right after each preceding race. Before the Derby, it was watered and there was 1 hour and 45 minutes until the race. Higher wind and more time allowed the track to dry.

How would this track maintenance have been any different for Big Brown, when he ran his 1:58 and change (unadjusted for wind) race?

The stretch head-wind was blowing harder and it had also been over 2 hours before the last dirt race.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bks

Cj is right. Only the Derby had a long run-up into a big wind on Derby Day. No other races have comparative value.

To accept Beyer's number requires concluding every horse but one regressed off its latest figure, despite the fact most were being pointed for the race, and despite the fact that visually, CC ran pretty much the race he's been running, with virtually the same results, for the last four races.

Salvatore selects two horses who ran at or better what may have been expected of them to make his silly case (one of which ran on synthetic last out). He ignores that EVERY Derby is run by 3-y-os that are carrying 126 lbs for the first time and going 1 1/4 for the first time. The question is: Why was the race so slow THIS time? The answer is obvious:

IT WASN'T. THE PACE WASN'T SLOW. AT ALL. AND THE RACE WASN'T SLOW.

23.04 into that breeze was a VERY fast fraction. It took a toll on all but the one very, very good animal (CC) who was near the pace Look at where Uncle Sign finished. Look at where Chitu ( a nice horse, but distance limited) finished. Samraat was more than 5 lengths behind CC despite a similar trip. Rosie's horse was unable to keep up.

This was a big effort by a very, very good horse. Downgrade it at your own risk.

Doug is a super sharp guy when it comes to figures. I don't agree with him in this case, but I also know this was not a cut and dried situation and open to interpretation.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Big Sal

How would this track maintenance have been any different for Big Brown, when he ran his 1:58 and change (unadjusted for wind) race?

The stretch head-wind was blowing harder and it had also been over 2 hours before the last dirt race.

As I stated earlier, don't remember which thread, I'm worried about this year, not Big Brown's year, or Smarty Jones, or anyone other horse. I'm a better figure maker than I was then. I'm doing the best I can on this year's race.

I really have no idea how I handled Big Brown's race. Maybe it was broken out like this one. I'll go back and review it later this week or early next when things are slower, could be interesting.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Big Sal

How would this track maintenance have been any different for Big Brown, when he ran his 1:58 and change (unadjusted for wind) race?

The stretch head-wind was blowing harder and it had also been over 2 hours before the last dirt race.

Again, I don't know. I didn't track what was happening with maintenance back then.

In this case, it didn't matter that Wise Dan's race was on turf, they watered the dirt track after it. There was a 1:45 time gap between the two. I doubt I can find out the maintenance from the Big Brown race, but I am going to look back and see how I handled the race, and at the weather that day.

[clocker7]

Sal, I recommend that you don't overthink. Here was a day when most entrants in the KD ran slower than they have in the past, and Wise Dan had a similar problem. Rather than tie yourself in knots while juggling multiple factors that are difficult to rationalize, what would be the simplest explanation, a la Occam's Razor?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by Doza

True, but in the derby they ran straight into the headwind twice, and were only downwind once (the backstretch)

That's a good point. I forgot about that.

If the wind was a factor then the fractions on the backstretch should have been faster than normal, right?