Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If the tournament organizers were so reluctant to report the names of the cheaters...how can we expect these same organizers to offer an accurate account of the level of cheating involved?
|
That's a very good question. Unlike the scandal with the Breeder's Cup pick 6 at Arlington, the details are a bit murky here without any process in sight for more complete disclosure.
Glad to see the players got DQ'ed. I've qualified a couple of times for the NHC, and have been the minnow in the shark tank, though I wasn't surprised by that. At first glance it still is mostly on the up and up, as no single player has ever won the NHC twice, and many of the winners have definitely been in the category of "non-professionals". That is to say, their success lies in stringing together some nice priced horses over 3 days. Difficult, but not statistically out of whack. That's my impression anyway.
Hat tip to Andy Asaro for helping tilt the NHC to do the right thing.
However, I'm still a bit uneasy about a couple of things. First, if these guys all qualified from Hawthorne's tourney, shouldn't that have been detectable prior to awarding them five seats to the NHC? IIRC, Hawthorne runs a bankroll style contest, so detecting any "unusual" patterns should have been trivial.
As a side note, I have quite a bit of confidence that the HP and HT site contests do a pretty thorough check on the results of the qualifiers before awarding the seats. And certainly the Four-Gate incident showed us all how fair and transparent things can be when managed properly.
Secondly, while I think the NHC is 95% or more on the up and up, collusion is still pretty easy to do. I don't have any direct knowledge of this, but it's my opinion. From what I've observed at the finals - I think it's quite likely it still goes on, to a small degree. Some players are acting as beards or getting advice from friends/family. I just think there's just some limitations on how stringently it can be enforced. I used to think it was also be pretty easy for someone with an hefty bankroll for entry fees to "sponser" a half dozen beards and tweak the selections for them to make it difficult to "find" them. Especially in the $2W/P format. But I think the overall prize structure is flat enough to make this anything but a "sure" profit. The top 3 or so finishers are still random enough in the 46 picks over three days it would be tough to show a profit year after year.
And, since I still play in the NHC contests, it doesn't bother me so much I don't enter the qualifiers.