Favorite strike rate (& ROI) by year

[Andy Asaro]

Twitter

[romankoz]

Gee, I think you should be looking at betting in Australia. Those LOT figures are abysmal.

For almost 5 years I have logged all the horses that were 4/1 or less in the morning raceday market for the 13 major capital city tracks in the states of Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland. South Australia and Western Australia.

At Odds On there were 1428 runners for 51.2% strike rate losing 6.7%
At 6/4 and less there were 4639 runners for 42.7% strike rate losing 4.6%
At 2/1 and less there were 8074 runners at 37.2% strike rate losing 6.8%

For my results I use the Betfair SP Prices.

All I can surmise is that the USA track take outs must be quite high thus putting a huge squeeze on the odds.

[romankoz]

I love my racing world and am always keen to discuss/chat/argue (nicely) but have I lost the plot. Ed pops in some chalk figures, I add mine (admittedly from the other side of the world) and that seems to be it!!

Is Twitter the way to go these days? My son thinks so. Looks like a new year project coming up.

ANyway all the best to all for 2023 and I hope the terrible weather conditions we are seeing on our news broadcast improve asap.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by romankoz

I love my racing world and am always keen to discuss/chat/argue (nicely) but have I lost the plot. Ed pops in some chalk figures, I add mine (admittedly from the other side of the world) and that seems to be it!!

Is Twitter the way to go these days? My son thinks so. Looks like a new year project coming up.

ANyway all the best to all for 2023 and I hope the terrible weather conditions we are seeing on our news broadcast improve asap.

Good luck if you go the twitter route. I suppose I'm old school so I'm fine with the forum. Tbh Ed's post had me type up a response the other day but I nuked it for various reasons.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by romankoz

I love my racing world and am always keen to discuss/chat/argue (nicely) but have I lost the plot. Ed pops in some chalk figures, I add mine (admittedly from the other side of the world) and that seems to be it!!

Is Twitter the way to go these days? My son thinks so. Looks like a new year project coming up.

ANyway all the best to all for 2023 and I hope the terrible weather conditions we are seeing on our news broadcast improve asap.

Forums are probably NOT the way to go for someone who has a total of 20 posts on this forum since 2015.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Forums are probably NOT the way to go for someone who has a total of 20 posts on this forum since 2015.

Seems to me the guy was trying to be nice and contribute. Why dog him because he has 20 posts?

There was a time we all had 20 posts.

Doubt he feels inspired to make a 21st.

[headhawg]

Well he did write that he "surmises" that the takeout is high in the US. He doesn't know? Maybe he could offer something if I played foreign tracks but I don't.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Seems to me the guy was trying to be nice and contribute. Why dog him because he has 20 posts?

There was a time we all had 20 posts.

Doubt he feels inspired to make a 21st.

Because he's basically shitting on this forum for the lack of action in this thread...when he himself has contributed basically nothing over 7 years...I saw that as hilarious and ironic and treated it as such.

This should be obvious to a bright guy such as yourself.

[PaceAdvantage]

"hey man, this forum sucks as nobody really replied to me...maybe I should go to twitter" says the guy who averages 2.8 posts a year...

ok then

[ClockersCorner]

Trying to raise my annual post rate.
According to Santa Anita‘s daily recaps the recent fall meet had 43.02% favorites winning.

[Jeff P]

In an effort to get my post count up:

I nominate Denis Araujo aboard #7 Etched In Stone (Laurel Race 2) for Ride Of The Day.

Admittedly the race day is still young and there are many more races to go.

For a horse I singled I just don't think anybody can top that.


-jp

.

[PaceAdvantage]

For the record...I don't really care if someone posts once over 20 years...but when they complain that they're not getting any action on THEIR posts when they themselves hardly ever post...well...get it now?

[tholl]

Interesting.

For my job as a handicapper since 2010 I am encouraged to pick winners rather than price horses. So am basically landing on the favorite much of the time but do take a shot on occasion. Covering more competitive tracks (Gulfstream, Churchill etc) means my win rate would be lower that the national average of winning favorites.

Going back through my records I found my win rate after about 43,000 races has stayed about the same over the years.

However ROI:

For the years 2011-2016 there were five years when my ROI was better than my final average. However, in the years 2017-2022 only one year has the ROI been better that the final average.

[ClockersCorner]

I got it the first time

[romankoz]

Gee, fellas, you need to remember I am on the other side of the world so most of the threads posted are of no interest for obvious reasons. There is no malice about this comment. It would be no different if some of you were on an Australian site and the many nuances of our racing were topics.

What I can reply to is a generic type of posting such as the one about the stats of the favourites or staking approaches and the odd other topic whatever it could be that I could follow
This I did by looking up my Aussie figures and presenting them with the HOPE some further discussions could take place. Perhaps some of you could have given your thoughts on factors you find useful in trying to master those massive LOT figures and in return I could have mentioned what works for me in OZ.

I also felt I left a door open for discussion re me surmising about the various takeouts being an issue and would have been interested to find out as that IS a generic topic. For the broad record in Aus the takeout on win bets is just under 15% by our TAB (Parimutuel) system.

My wondering about forums versus twitter had me saying “that seems to be it!!” which is a statement of fact. There were no replies on a topic I thought one or two members would pop in with a word or two.
I followed up with “Is Twitter the way to go these days? My son thinks so. Looks like a new year project coming up”. I will look at Twitter and follow my son’s group of bettors he follows to see if he is right. He believes there is a stack of sharing with several of whom he follows.
Pace Steward (I assume this means he runs part of the site???) raises several points when he suggests
“Forums are probably NOT the way to go for someone who has a total of 20 posts on this forum since 2015”. Yes, fair comment.
Pace Steward then follows with
“Because he's basically shitting on this forum for the lack of action in this thread...when he himself has contributed basically nothing over 7 years...I saw that as hilarious and ironic and treated it as such”
If that’s what is believed by PS that’s fair enough too. Believe me when I state, as absolute fact, in the right forum I am a prolific writer as I believe I have a lot of mistakes to pass on to any newbies to avoid and am quite willing to discuss said topics. I will keep looking over the next week or two to see if any topics I can write to pop up.
I think PS was replying to someone else with “This should be obvious to a bright guy like you”. It’s funny with words via a keyboard as I see that comment as a bit condescending but I could be wrong.
Thanks to VJ for his correct approach and I hope you speed things up a bit Clockers Corner with more postings! I had a smile– very adeptly stated.
Anyway, it’s now officially my birthday Dec 31 for the 72nd time as of four minutes ago and this codger needs his pillow. Good luck and good health to all.