Are you a long term winner

[Half Smoke]

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please state your edge or lack of edge

probably for many it's only recreational so as long as they don't lose serious $$$ it's an enjoyment

I now bet very rarely - I've lost a lot of the enjoyment of it - will prolly bet some on the TC series

I divide my efforts into 2 categories - 1. taking a flyer with a shot and 2. trying hard to win by betting on logical contenders usually in the WPS show pool

I definitely did not win overall when taking a flyer with some shots

I believe I had a tiny edge when I was trying hard to win with logical contenders - very tiny

it really wasn't worth it in terms of all of the time I put in handicapping

that's when I soured on betting racing - when I realized it was going to take a lot of time to end up a winner and then it would only be by a tiny %

thanks muchly if you do care to respond

very, very interesting to me


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[SBD400]

This year my ROI is -3.0%. Given the takeout of 18% or so and from what I hear very few break even I am pretty happy with that.


My edge is I only play one circuit , NYRA and know it inside and out. I am retired and have plenty of time so this year I put in a process and system where I watch every days card and grade every horse in every race and record the grades and take notes on each horse and put it in my database. When handicapping a race, I have my database to augment what I see in the form and I have already evaluated these horses and have a good feeling whether I have a positive or negative perception of the horse.



I don't bet every card ( i do have a life , when I do play a days card I don't bet every race, I look for the races I like with horses I have a good feeling for. I don't bet a lot of money.


Its a lot of work, but I love it and my ROI has improved since I started doing this. Its possible this year I have watched more NYRA races than anyone on the planet , I watch every race 5 to 10 times to evaluate each horse.

[rtnwin]

Probably not. I first went to the races in 1974, and became serious starting in 79-80. Starting in 1983 I had 16 consecutive years with 15 profitable (+10 to +87%) and one net losing (-8%). Since then, it has been much more erratic and my last good year was 2018 (+41%). Last year (2022) was a disaster with a net loss of -55%. The last 10 years, I have been net loser equaling an average of -4%. I cannot give an accurate number for my total racing efforts (49 years) as I only have the percentages from each year, not the dollars and the amounts bet each year varied.
Note, I have always primarily bet to win only, with exotics less than 10% of my bets. Until I retired in 2018, I probably averaged about 50 betting days a year. More now, although I am questioning the wisdom of that. Unless I have a good last quarter, this year will end in a loss.

[sjk]

My long-term return is 14.4% but it has been in a long slide downward over 20+ years. I have no confidence at all that I will win going forward even though 2023 has been a profitable year. I bet a lot fewer races than in the old days.

[General Sanders]

I used to bet exactas exclusively and averaged a 50% race hit rate and a 50% ROI with race type, odds restrictions, and bet sizing. But as the pools became more efficient over the years I had to become much more selective in the races that I played mostly because there wasn't as much value out there. This required an enormous amount of time sometimes watching dozens of races to make just a handful of bets. If this was figured on a dollar per hour basis it just didn't seem to be worth it anymore. And the CAWs didn't help much either due to the fact that the live odds at post time became meaningless due to the late odds changes.

So, after thinking about it for a while I determined that I needed to:
A: Eliminate the need to base my wagers on post time odds but rather project
those odds in advance.
B: Maintain a set of restrictions on types of races played and a minimum
acceptable ROI based on my historical results.
C: Bet size according to my projected odds rather than tote board odds.
D: Totally ignore handicapping (that's right, totally ignore handicapping)!

Since handicapping points everyone to basically the same horses it would seem to me that it has become the most inefficient part of the whole process. And unless you are using a black box it is also the most time consuming. This advantage in time allotment allows me to play multiple tracks simultaneously including the occasional overlay at a harness track.

So I have evolved into a 2 horse win bettor and have once again attained my 50/50 numbers of old. The difference is that I put in a lot less time, a lot less work, and have a hell of a better time doing it. And as far as the CAWs are concerned...if you can't beat them, join them by following the money.

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by General Sanders

D: Totally ignore handicapping (that's right, totally ignore handicapping)!

So I have evolved into a 2 horse win bettor and have once again attained my 50/50 numbers of old. The difference is that I put in a lot less time, a lot less work, and have a hell of a better time doing it. And as far as the CAWs are concerned...if you can't beat them, join them by following the money.

okay,

so, since you ignore handicapping I am assuming you find your 2 horses to bet to win based on which horses are bet down significantly late

would that be correct__________?


thanks

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[Inner Dirt]

I won from 1979-1993, then Beyer put his figures in the Racing Form, the party was over. What I don't get is I used to be a consistent winner betting harness racing, then all of a sudden my winning percentage took a big dive and my average win price even dropped. I guess my harness picking abilities were track specific, limited to Hollywood Park, Fairplex, and Los Alamitos.

[thaskalos]

You should have made this an anonymous poll question. Then, 30% of the responders would have claimed to be "long-term winners", and another 33% would have said that they are "about even".

[General Sanders]

As I said I bet based on my odds projections and absolutely do not use the live tote board at all. I am not concerned with the impossible task of structuring bets based upon last second odds changes, especially when most of those changes occur after the race has already started and the betting is closed.

Without getting into my exact process and betting parameters it would be safe to say that I always bet the 2 lowest projected odds horses beyond the minimum odds and minimum ROI that I have established based on my historical results. I pass certain race conditions and any race where I can't find 2 horses to bet as well as any race where my lowest projected horse is at 3/5 or less(projected).

I only offer this approach as a suggestion for anyone to look beyond the handicapping process and focus more on the money being bet on the board which has proven to be the most accurate predictor of results. And, of course, what works for me may not work for someone else, especially if they do not keep records and then set their own parameters.

[thaskalos]

A 50% ROI with no handicapping at all. You can’t beat that!

[Half Smoke]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

A 50% ROI with no handicapping at all. You can’t beat that!

to be fair - he didn't say that

the quote was:

"So I have evolved into a 2 horse win bettor and have once again attained my 50/50 numbers of old"

I'm not sure exactly what that means

but I'm pretty sure he wasn't saying he had a 50% r.o.i.


.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

to be fair - he didn't say that

the quote was:

"So I have evolved into a 2 horse win bettor and have once again attained my 50/50 numbers of old"

I'm not sure exactly what that means

but I'm pretty sure he wasn't saying he had a 50% r.o.i.


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The man clearly said that the “50/50” was a 50% hit rate, and a 50% ROI…both with no handicapping at all.

[General Sanders]

Anyone familiar with the Dr. Z approach to show betting will understand that the comparison of pool totals, namely win/show, was able to produce a profit in the days before simulcasting and past post pool dumping. And, if I remember correctly, there was no handicapping involved whatsoever. The tricky part was the bet sizing. That is exactly why I bet based on odds projections and don't handicap whatsoever.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by General Sanders

Anyone familiar with the Dr. Z approach to show betting will understand that the comparison of pool totals, namely win/show, was able to produce a profit in the days before simulcasting and past post pool dumping. And, if I remember correctly, there was no handicapping involved whatsoever. The tricky part was the bet sizing. That is exactly why I bet based on odds projections and don't handicap whatsoever.

With a 50% ROI?

[Inner Dirt]

What I find laughable is people that play slots and claim they always win, I think they forget how much they feed in, just what comes out.