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05-19-2017, 06:20 PM
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#151
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
Assuming whales exist, one could easily argue that they should prove both their existence and the effectiveness of their methods by posting algorithms that explain how they do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing. Or one could conclude that either they don't exist, or that they are unwilling to share their methods. Or that they simply don't care about proving their existence and/or the effectiveness of their methods.
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Like thaskalos, I have no idea what you are saying.
Didn't you say before that "winners" have no desire to post on message boards?
And why in the world would a winning player disclose their methods? That would be like firing yourself from the best job in the world.
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05-19-2017, 07:28 PM
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#152
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Don't all the kids on the playground fantasize about being the next "Michael Jordan", or "Derek Jeter"? And...don't all the "serious" poker players dream of being the next "Chip Reese"? I just figured that all the serious horseplayers dream of being the next Pittsburgh Phil".
I know I did...
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Assuming they have the knowledge and bankroll to do so, as soon as they realize how much work is involved they go back to work and play horses on the side.
That's one thing that makes the stock market investing so monstrously superior. If you are doing it properly, all the work is done up front. You identify great businesses you would like to own and wait until one or more of them reaches a price that makes sense. When one does, you buy and you check the price 10 years later.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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05-19-2017, 07:30 PM
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#153
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,651
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Or you get in in the morning and get out by 4:15.
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05-19-2017, 07:31 PM
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#154
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Like thaskalos, I have no idea what you are saying.
Didn't you say before that "winners" have no desire to post on message boards?
And why in the world would a winning player disclose their methods? That would be like firing yourself from the best job in the world.
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Exactly. I said "one could easily argue that they should prove both their existence and the effectiveness of their methods" by posting--not that it was a good argument, a persuasive argument, or even a rational argument.
I think a 400 race posting that shows a decent profit on win bets is really impressive. I in no way intended my comments to diminish your accomplishment. The intent was to express my belief that win betting is the fastest, easiest, and likely the best way (especially for a novice or recreational bettor) to learn to make a profit wagering on horse races. Nothing more.
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05-19-2017, 07:35 PM
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#155
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
I think a 400 race posting that shows a decent profit on win bets is really impressiv
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To me, this is the /thread. I'm not going to make any statistical claims about it (other than I hope to see it keep up). But as an accomplishment, it's a gigantic one for any handicapper.
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05-19-2017, 07:39 PM
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#156
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,614
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The problem with posting picks is that you can be a winning player over many years, start posting picks, and have a random run of bad luck that easily lasts 1000-2000 races (depending on the price range of your selections).
The same is true in the other direction.
I have found metrics that were profitable over 1000 races on moderate prices that then went on to be losing metrics (although continuing to outperform the take) for the next 1000.
Unless someone wants to make a very long commitment of time and energy just to prove a point (there will be no compensation and it could even impact you negatively if people start playing the horses you are selecting), it's silly.
That doesn't even count the fact that if you ARE actually a winner you are probably making a lot of late decisions based on prices, how the track is playing, late scratches, how horses look on the track or other similar information that could be in your toolbox. So trying do your job as a player by concentrating on these late developments while posting would probably have a negative impact on your results.
There is literally no upside to it and all downside unless you are a public handicapper getting a salary to make selections or you enjoy making public picks and showing the results.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-19-2017 at 07:46 PM.
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05-19-2017, 08:01 PM
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#157
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
Who's looking for personal gain by posting picks? After this weekend, you won't see another peep from me regarding posted picks or ROI or anything.
Oh, and btw, I notice you don't track your picks either...but you do post them.
Interesting...
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You need to read his post in context with Thaskalos' post. It wasn't directed towards you. The Bo Hopkins comment was regarding that Dreyfuss movie. The name just escapes me at the moment.
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05-19-2017, 08:01 PM
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#158
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Registered user
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,439
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The whales and pro-bettors is a topic that we have discussed numerous times in this board but we have never managed to reach a conclusion. In my humble opinion, these kind of topics consist a waste of time similarly to the notorious "Religion" thread.
PA has shown convincing indicators about good handicapping and betting execution (by betting his top choice to win) but people instead of focusing their responses on this they continue their endless stories, full of "I know", "it is my opinion", "based on my experience", "there exist X number of whales occupying Y number of employees" and many other similar metaphysical nonsense!
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
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05-19-2017, 08:05 PM
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#159
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 918
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
Assuming whales exist, one could easily argue that they should prove both their existence and the effectiveness of their methods by posting algorithms that explain how they do whatever it is they are supposed to be doing. Or one could conclude that either they don't exist, or that they are unwilling to share their methods. Or that they simply don't care about proving their existence and/or the effectiveness of their methods.
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or one could easily argue that you are taking the piss!
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05-19-2017, 08:23 PM
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#160
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steveb
or one could easily argue that you are taking the piss!
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I think he's just fishing for their algorithms. He's a programmer in search of racing algorithms which is surprising to me since I thought his was working.
Last edited by whodoyoulike; 05-19-2017 at 08:24 PM.
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05-19-2017, 09:32 PM
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#161
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
I think he's just fishing for their algorithms. He's a programmer in search of racing algorithms which is surprising to me since I thought his was working.
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I think I have made it clear enough--on enough occasions--that I have absolutely zero interest in what anyone else is doing (especially those using computers)--other than in very general conceptual matters. As in "all theory, no specifics."
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05-19-2017, 09:35 PM
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#162
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
The problem with posting picks is that you can be a winning player over many years, start posting picks, and have a random run of bad luck that easily lasts 1000-2000 races (depending on the price range of your selections).
The same is true in the other direction.
I have found metrics that were profitable over 1000 races on moderate prices that then went on to be losing metrics (although continuing to outperform the take) for the next 1000.
Unless someone wants to make a very long commitment of time and energy just to prove a point (there will be no compensation and it could even impact you negatively if people start playing the horses you are selecting), it's silly.
That doesn't even count the fact that if you ARE actually a winner you are probably making a lot of late decisions based on prices, how the track is playing, late scratches, how horses look on the track or other similar information that could be in your toolbox. So trying do your job as a player by concentrating on these late developments while posting would probably have a negative impact on your results.
There is literally no upside to it and all downside unless you are a public handicapper getting a salary to make selections or you enjoy making public picks and showing the results.
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I agree.
Last edited by traynor; 05-19-2017 at 09:38 PM.
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05-19-2017, 10:34 PM
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#163
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
I think I have made it clear enough--on enough occasions--that I have absolutely zero interest in what anyone else is doing (especially those using computers)--other than in very general conceptual matters. As in "all theory, no specifics."
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Okay. I was just basically responding to your post referenced by steveb within his which you wanted them to show their algorithms with an explanation of them which is the reason for the fishing remark.
Why would any of them agree to that type of request?
I've mentioned before when someone on here doubted whales even existed in horse race betting but they are or were basically well known now. I'm fairly certain these individuals were not made up. But, maybe their exploits were slightly exaggerated.
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05-19-2017, 10:49 PM
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#164
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,626
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whodoyoulike
Okay. I was just basically responding to your post referenced by steveb within his which you wanted them to show their algorithms with an explanation of them which is the reason for the fishing remark.
Why would any of them agree to that type of request?
I've mentioned before when someone on here doubted whales even existed in horse race betting but they are or were basically well known now. I'm fairly certain these individuals were not made up. But, maybe their exploits were slightly exaggerated.
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Actually, it was a (flopped) attempt at humor. I do that sometimes. Not intentionally, though. My error was in not realizing it might be (mis)construed as an actual request for information. I apologize for not being more clear.
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05-19-2017, 11:06 PM
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#165
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Veteran
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
Actually, it was a (flopped) attempt at humor. I do that sometimes. Not intentionally, though. My error was in not realizing it might be (mis)construed as an actual request for information. I apologize for not being more clear.
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Yes, you own us all an apology , I took your request very seriously, and had zipped up all the algos I use and was ready to email them to you.
Guess I won't be needing to to do that now.
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