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10-04-2022, 06:29 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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overrating of class factor here_____?
__________
in the Eddie D at S.A. Saturday Gregorian Chant was bet down to about 2/1 and Lane Way was let go at about 4/1
before that race Lane Way had only appeared in on G1 event and finished poorly and no G2 events
Gregorian Chant had appeared in 2 G1 events and 3 G2 events
in the last 4 races Lane Way had higher speed figures per Equibase and had run in 3 Alw races whereas Gregorian Chant's last 3 races were all stakes in which he had not been very impressive - although he did get 2nd in a black type thing
Gregorian Chant had not finished well in any of his previous G1 and G2 events
Lane Way finished 2, 2, 1 and 4 in his last 4 races before the Eddie D and 3 of them were only Alw races
I can't see any major difference in the Pace factors but I haven't looked at that very closely
what's your take on this_________?__________thanks
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Re...istry=T&rbt=TB
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believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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10-04-2022, 09:13 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Not sure I am understanding your question?
I often find class in turf sprints somewhat irrelevant compared to other races. Lane Way is a pretty talented horse sprinting with a good late kick but often doesnt find a clean trip, I would run him back at Kee as that sprint there has produced a couple price results.
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10-04-2022, 09:32 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 126
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Class doesn't apply as much in the turf sprints I've noticed. Look at a horse like Lieutenant Dan, hadn't run in graded stake on the turf until last year's Green Flash and ended up runner up in the BC turf sprint.
There are so few big money turf sprints anyway, in this case it was notable that Gregorian Chant intended to run in one of them at Kentucky Downs but was rerouted to this much less lucrative spot.
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10-04-2022, 09:56 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HorsemenHeist
Class doesn't apply as much in the turf sprints I've noticed. Look at a horse like Lieutenant Dan, hadn't run in graded stake on the turf until last year's Green Flash and ended up runner up in the BC turf sprint.
There are so few big money turf sprints anyway, in this case it was notable that Gregorian Chant intended to run in one of them at Kentucky Downs but was rerouted to this much less lucrative spot.
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the reroute is almost always a bet against, or the trainer unsure if they will run and then they run.
Mandella 2 weeks ago said he wasnt sure about running Royal Ship in the race last weekend, he went, ran like trash. Those horses just seem to lose with those statements a lot more than win.
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10-04-2022, 09:23 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 518
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Seems like it fit the bill that turf handicappers look for in a turf sprint -
- runs turf sprints
- runs on a consistent basis
- seems it's in the same ballpark of class
- kept it around a length back the entire way last time out
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10-05-2022, 09:52 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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The gap between ALW and Graded stakes is lower in turf sprints than in many other categories. These turf sprints are a relatively new division in US racing. The very top of the division is not that strong (though it's stronger now than it was even 5 years ago).
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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10-05-2022, 11:27 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
The gap between ALW and Graded stakes is lower in turf sprints than in many other categories. These turf sprints are a relatively new division in US racing. The very top of the division is not that strong (though it's stronger now than it was even 5 years ago).
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I would argue its also a bit like soccer in the US, the best horses are not being pointed to those events but become a fallback.
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10-05-2022, 12:46 PM
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#8
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I would argue its also a bit like soccer in the US, the best horses are not being pointed to those events but become a fallback.
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Except for Wesley Ward.
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10-05-2022, 01:51 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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____________
worth noting also that Lane Way - 4.20/1 - set a track record at S.A. for a 6 furlong turf sprint on 10/3/21
in the money 12 out of 14 times
just seemed well overlayed to me even though a shot nailed him on Sat.
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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10-05-2022, 02:29 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 946
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
Not sure I am understanding your question?
I often find class in turf sprints somewhat irrelevant...
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"Class" and "turf sprints" are mutually exclusive terms.
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10-05-2022, 02:55 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cholly
"Class" and "turf sprints" are mutually exclusive terms.
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so, then, would it be fair to say that the following results in your opinion are just due to a random thing
Gregorian Chant won 4 out of 8 alw races
here are his finishes in graded stakes events:
3
7
4
3
7
1
11
5
meaningless__________?
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__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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10-05-2022, 02:58 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
so, then, would it be fair to say that the following results in your opinion are just due to a random thing
Gregorian Chant won 4 out of 8 alw races
here are his finishes in graded stakes events:
3
7
4
3
7
1
11
5
meaningless__________?
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yes,
he could go in a nw1x next week and lose and no one would be surprised.
i dont think the same of a dirt horse. Even the record you put up there shows how much variance there is on grass races.
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10-06-2022, 12:01 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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If anyone can handicap the 4th at Kee fri, turf sprint, on Friday then turf sprints are your cup of tea, I narrowed it down to 8.
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