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Old 10-22-2020, 04:57 PM   #1
Saratoga_Mike
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2016 Polling Results - All Wrong?

Not really...

Final 2016 polling averages:*

National:
Polls - Clinton by 3.3 points
Actual - Clinton by 2.1 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Florida:
Polls - Trump by 0.2 points
Actual - Trump by 1.2 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Penn:
Polls - Clinton by 1.9 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Acceptable results, within the margin of error.

Michigan:
Polls - Clinton by 3.4 points
Actual - Trump by 0.3 points

Comment: Within the margin of error

Wisconsin:
Polls - Clinton by 6.5 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Bad results

*Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html

The link brings you to the final 2016 national polling averages; you may also pull up the state-by-state averages.

Why were a few of states polls off by more than expected? Undecided broke disproportionally toward Trump (polls don't make predictions about undecideds, obviously) and incorrect modeling of demographic turnout. Will this happen again? I guess it depends on who you're backing.
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Old 10-22-2020, 04:57 PM   #2
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not comparable to this time around
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Old 10-22-2020, 05:10 PM   #3
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Somebody woke up mikey...we're in for a treat.
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Old 10-22-2020, 05:35 PM   #4
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Somebody woke up mikey...we're in for a treat.
I've been around, just reading the racing side. Thanks for the acknowledgment, though.
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Old 10-22-2020, 05:39 PM   #5
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Within the margin of error doesn't cut it when the actual vote is taken on Election Day. The actual vote proved just one thing, the polls were wrong. Plain and simple.

Participation trophies may work in tee-ball and under 10 little league baseball, but the standards are stricter in the real world, making the margin of error argument laughable.

Also the three states that the pollsters had Hillary Clinton winning but lost accounted for 46 votes in the electoral college for President Trump. That's a 100% miss in the within the margin of error argument.

The pollsters did not even earn a trophy by any standard in 2016.
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Old 10-22-2020, 06:12 PM   #6
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Within the margin of error doesn't cut it when the actual vote is taken on Election Day. The actual vote proved just one thing, the polls were wrong. Plain and simple.
If the polls predicted the results perfectly, we would not need elections. From a statistical standpoint, "within the margin of error" means the state-level polls predicted the results plus/minus 4 points (varies by poll) with a 95% confidence level. It sounds like you want the polls to nail the results with a 100% confidence level. That isn't going to happen, no matter what pollster(s) you hire.
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:31 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by 46zilzal View Post
not comparable to this time around
They aren't.

I don't think that was the OPs point. Polls weren't far off in 2016 and the main error was a 3pt error based on white voters and education levels.

Its not the same this time around because pollsters are accounting for that.

Regardless a 3pt swing again in Trump's favor means... he gets his ass kicked still.
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:27 PM   #8
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They aren't.

I don't think that was the OPs point. Polls weren't far off in 2016 and the main error was a 3pt error based on white voters and education levels.

Its not the same this time around because pollsters are accounting for that.

Regardless a 3pt swing again in Trump's favor means... he gets his ass kicked still.
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....

not saying fat orangeman wins....but closer THAN you think....

my wet dream....since the sickening blue wave will probably take the senate as well....Trump somehow wins....gets kicked out...Pence is in...but not enough Lib. juice to override any veto....

I love stalemated STUPID irresponsible lawmakers...that way they can't CUCK us over....
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:30 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....

not saying fat orangeman wins....but closer THAN you think....

my wet dream....since the sickening blue wave will probably take the senate as well....Trump somehow wins....gets kicked out...Pence is in...but not enough Lib. juice to override any veto....

I love stalemated STUPID irresponsible lawmakers...that way they can't CUCK us over....
The young black Americans will vote for Trump in record numbers this election
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Old 10-22-2020, 11:56 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike View Post
Not really...

Final 2016 polling averages:*

National:
Polls - Clinton by 3.3 points
Actual - Clinton by 2.1 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Florida:
Polls - Trump by 0.2 points
Actual - Trump by 1.2 points

Comment: Excellent results, well within the margin of error.

Penn:
Polls - Clinton by 1.9 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Acceptable results, within the margin of error.

Michigan:
Polls - Clinton by 3.4 points
Actual - Trump by 0.3 points

Comment: Within the margin of error

Wisconsin:
Polls - Clinton by 6.5 points
Actual - Trump by 0.7 points

Comment: Bad results

*Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html

The link brings you to the final 2016 national polling averages; you may also pull up the state-by-state averages.

Why were a few of states polls off by more than expected? Undecided broke disproportionally toward Trump (polls don't make predictions about undecideds, obviously) and incorrect modeling of demographic turnout. Will this happen again? I guess it depends on who you're backing.
Not accurate. Like this year the #s were inflated in Sept, Oct and didn't reflect reality. The numbers were vapor. Only in the last days did the polls inch back to reality.

Also note, all these polls were under what trump performed to. Not a single poll had trump at a higher number than the results showed. If you dont see the basic error of this, I can't help you
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Old 10-23-2020, 12:15 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sammy the sage View Post
HHHHHmmmmm....Latin & Black voters are definitely DOWN on THE cRAT side....
They aren't...

A couple of points around the margins... maybe.

If you're a Republican (I know you aren't) and you're hinging your chances of electoral success on Latino and Black voters, in 2020, you've already lost.
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Old 10-23-2020, 02:00 PM   #12
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The young black Americans will vote for Trump in record numbers this election
I am amazed that you know your ABC’s well enough to write such a dumb statement.
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Old 10-23-2020, 03:31 PM   #13
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I am amazed that you know your ABC’s well enough to write such a dumb statement.
why do you refute this and expose your bias and ignorance?
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Old 10-23-2020, 05:54 PM   #14
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why do you refute this and expose your bias and ignorance?
It is all he has to expose.
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Old 10-23-2020, 06:15 PM   #15
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I am amazed that you know your ABC’s well enough to write such a dumb statement.
That's right. You do know. All those African Americans that you sit with in the pews on Sunday and have over for cookouts during the week. You have had long discussions with what 1000's of them, on how are they going to vote. That would have to be true for you to post what you did. Please tell Reverend Mosty
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