Derby Figures

[cj]

My Derby figures are now posted on my site:

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507.htm

[Zaf]

That Bellamy Road fig looks huge , but does it have bounce written all over it ?

ZAFONIC

[Skanoochies]

Thanks for sharing them C.J. Class Act. Good luck in your wagers.

Skanoochies.

[kingfin66]

Your figures confirmed what I had suspected about Greeley's Galaxy. I think I found my key horse. Now if I can just figure out a way to get the whole screen on 1 page when I print them out... Any ideas?

[Buddha]

Originally Posted by kingfin66

Now if I can just figure out a way to get the whole screen on 1 page when I print them out... Any ideas?

As in the page is too wide when you print it? I know I use Firefox, it fits the screen onto the page. Makes the print a little smaller, but everything is on one page. Do you use IE or Firefox?

[Speed Figure]

I think cj's pace figure for Greeley's Galaxy is far to high.

[bdhsheets]

Set your printer preferences to landscape mode and you'll be okay, but wind up with more pages.

[bdhsheets]

In IE you need to change your view setting text size to smallest, then the print should fit in landscape mode.

[cj]

I've uploaded a few more printer friendly versions:

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507_drf.htm

http://www.pacefigures.com/dby0507C_drf.htm

SpeedFigure,

Why? I'm curious. I'll post exactly how I came up with my numbers when I get home and have the chart in front of me.

[KingChas]

CJ- I don't know if you incorporate the DRF variants into your ratings or not.I've downloaded the DRF derby pps and see they have no variants for any prep race at GP and none for the San Felipe at SA.Any help on a fig(s) would be greatly appreciated -Thank You

[cj]

I don't use the DRF variant at all. I can give you my variants, but they aren't on the same scale as those in the DRF, which I believe are 1 point = 1/5 second, regardless of distance.

[cj]

As for Greeley's Galaxy, I looked over the Hawthorne card again.

Here is what I see for the routes:

4 th, 1m 1/16, Raw Pace:74 , Raw Speed:75
7 th, 1m 1/ 8, Raw Pace:111, Raw Speed:108
10th, 1m 1/16, Raw Pace:64, Raw Speed:69

First, I calculate the final time variant. I project what I expect the winning speed figure to be based on the projection method. I figured around a 75 for the 4th, a 110 for the 7th (based on the 2nd and 3rd place finishers), and a 75 for the last. So I had projections of 0, 2 slow, and 6 slow. With the slow pace of the last race, I know that projection is probably a little off, so I settled on the 2 slow, the median.

Now for the pace variant, I compare the raw pace figures of the winners to the raw speed figures of the winner. So, I had 1 slow, 3 fast, and 5 slow, for an average of 1 slow, which means one slower than the final time variant. So, I have -3 pace (3 slow) and -2 speed (2 slow) variants.

I then subtract these from the raw figures to get 114, 110 for GG. I really think this day was pretty solid, no major questions for me. I think the difference is that I use the winner to calculate my pars and variants, not the leader. It is unusual for most, but I find it a much more consistent method. Had I used the leader for the 4th race, for example, the raw figures would have been 93 - 75, which would really skew the pace variant.

[kingfin66]

Thanks for the figs and the print friendly version CJ. Thanks to others who responded as well.

As far as Greeley's figure goes, I look at it this way. At a big price, the figure is good...

[Valuist]

I think the fig for GG is legit and I've been doing Hawthorne numbers for over 20 years. The only question regarding him is what did he beat (not much) and he had a perfect trip. When War Emblem won the Illinois Derby in 2002, he beat a pretty good horse in Repent, who at the time was considered one of the top Derby prospects.

[depalma13]

War Emblem won his Illinois Derby at Sportsman Park, so I wouldn't compare his numbers to the horses that have won that race since.