Why did Giacomo win? - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Light · 05-08-2005, 01:24 AM

Considering that Giacomo had only broken his maiden and was still eligible for NW1X,and failed in that attempt,how did he improve so much to beat 19 other more accomplished horses in the Derby? Closing Argument I can understand.At least he had won a stake and a G3 besides his maiden and was on a comeback trail and figured to improve. But there must be some explanation for Giacomo to suddenly run a race he has NEVER shown an ability to run and do it the hardest race for a 3yo.

Bobby · 05-08-2005, 01:33 AM

It can't be explained. I don't care how you look at it. U can say pace scenario but if you say that you don't choose SHOCKOMO. U take Wilko or someone else. You know what I mean.

nick777 · 05-08-2005, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Light

Considering that Giacomo had only broken his maiden and was still eligible for NW1X,and failed in that attempt,how did he improve so much to beat 19 other more accomplished horses in the Derby? Closing Argument I can understand.At least he had won a stake and a G3 besides his maiden and was on a comeback trail and figured to improve. But there must be some explanation for Giacomo to suddenly run a race he has NEVER shown an ability to run and do it the hardest race for a 3yo.

I know why he won, i figured it out, after the race of course.

1-He had the most "Bottom" in him, with 5 consecutive route races, most of the favs only had 2-3, that extra stamina prepping gave him the edge.

2-Coming from the west coast, the hot weather today was more to his liking, along with the other west coasters, who all ran well.

3-Mike Smith pulled a Shoemaker on Ferdinand, only Mikey knew how much horse he was using in his preps, and how much horse he had left for the Derby.

4-Same as 3, his lines coming into the race obviously weren't honest, as he was not going full out to win those preps, but focusing on the Derby.

5-Back to back bullet works.

6-This is the most important one. Because i didn't bet on him.

dav4463 · 05-08-2005, 01:38 AM

Horse was rounding into form and had the right running style (along with about six others) who benefitted from an incredibly fast pace.

Tuffmug · 05-08-2005, 01:54 AM

Perfectly timed ride by Mike Smith in a race run too fast early. Giacomo was 18th at 6f doing 1:11.8 while the jerks up front were doing 1:09.4 with 4 furlongs to go!
Saw Biancone on TV cutting up by leading a white rabbit out of his stall and talking about his chances. It was a great joke but the moron jockeys up front were the real joke as they went with the "rabbits" Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild and lost their chance to win.

BeatTheChalk · 05-08-2005, 02:09 AM

Oh I beg your pardon. He rand 2nd To Declans Moon as a 2 year old. !!
Then ran 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby..ahem cough ahem !! Then had 2
superb works at Hollywood !!! And finally Moss dont breed no bad ones

Light · 05-08-2005, 02:40 AM

BTC

Good point,but despite his accomplishments,he still ranked 18th out of 20 in earnings for 2005 and it's not like the others in this field ran against chumps or in classless races.

Brian Flewwelling · 05-08-2005, 03:32 AM

looked reasonable to me... after the race. Speed over 100 in all races this year and 109 in last as 2yo. All routes.

He just needed the break, and got it...

i have him at 106 for his win

Fleww

PaceAdvantage · 05-08-2005, 04:13 AM

Hey look, Shirreffs and Smith basically admitted on national TV that they weren't out to win his preps. Go back and watch the TV coverage and read a bit between the lines (hell, you don't even have to read between the lines, they were pretty up front about it....kind of shocking given all the crap about Sweet Catomine).

If you do go back and watch the post race comments, pay particular attention to when Donna Brothers is talking to Smith right after he pulls up on the backstretch after the race.

Nick777 nailed it with his #3 and #4 comments.

cj · 05-08-2005, 04:39 AM

Number one had to be the insane pace.

Handicapping 101 should have told all of us that the frontrunners had ZERO chance, but at least in my case, I'm stubborn. If this was a routine claimer with this much speed signed on, no way we bet the speed horses.

Still, not sure I would come up with Giacomo, though looking backwards now, of course you can always find a few things to like.

how cliche · 05-08-2005, 04:48 AM

I've seen John Shireffs and Jerry Moss team up on many a stakes winner because I'm a student of Southern California racing. The biggest signal those two can give that their horse is set to run a huge long stake race is from a 7f workout at HOL in 1:25 or less.

The 1:23 & 4 work served notice and for that reason he was in my wife and my trifecta wheel in all three spots, for the only race where we play gimmicks every year. We keyed Alex W-P-S, but left out Closing Argument(who still has yet to miss the board his entire career)as one of the surrounding runners. It's just a shame. You have to make tough decisions in that race unless you want to spend a mint. We did manage to play Giacomo across the board to save the day, and we're left happy yet dissapointed, wondering why so many good horses ran so poorly.

We had our big win bet on Afleet Alex who ran courageously in defeat. I'm still proud of that little guy and hold him near to my heart and mind.

cj · 05-08-2005, 05:32 AM

Here is what I come up with for Derby Figures, Beyer Scale:

Pace: 124 Final: 102

At first glance, I would say Closing Argument ran the most impressive race.

Pace Cap'n · 05-08-2005, 07:22 AM

Here is a thead by a guy who nailed the winner dead to rights two days before the race:

Giacomo

Cites the works, the race with Declan's Moon, the slow pace of the SA Derby...

I took it with a grain of salt...

racingrev · 05-08-2005, 09:56 AM

Couldn't see the race live here in NZ which was a real brass off I can tell you...

All along I liked Afleet Alex, but warmed to Giacomo strongly over the last few days.. Tipped him as the roughie that could win the derby on another website and backed him at 50's on ladbrokes.. For many of the reasons mentioned above..

Don't sell this guy short.. He's the dude that has come right at the right time... He can stay longer than your mother in law and could be a genuine hope at the triple crown...

Alex may have been a touch unlucky.. Durkin said in the call he wouldn't go the inside run coming of the back??? (Any comments on that!!!) If indeed that is the case he may have cost himself a length or two...

Apart from that Bellamy Road went OK, but Jack Hill the blind miner could see he wasn't the same horse that won the Wood Memorial... As for some of the other big bubbles to burst..What can you say..Nothing...

Go GIACOMO....

BIG RED · 05-08-2005, 10:49 AM

Nick777 has some valid points. I wholeheartedly agree with 3,4, and 5. Now I'm a paper and pencil type of capper. Second race back loses in G2 by 6.5 lgnths, moves up to G1 and stretches out more and loses only by 2 lgnths. Loses nothing in the stretch. And, yes add the two bullet LONG works for an added angle and you have a contender. Now the odds, 50-1, you bet it is a bet! What made me decide on him for a longshot play was something I don't do often. His last race I watched. I bet him in the SADerby, only him, so watched just him live. When he finished something told me this horse was just starting to run. Well, I felt lousy that he lost, but not anymore.