Betting harness is hopeless

[kuusinen27]

I bet harness racing for years, owned horses up until 2006 but finally
got tired of how futile it is. I now bet thoroughbred instead because it
is too much for me to deal with being disappointed by both horses and
also drivers. I don't know about thoroughbred but in all my years being
around harness racing I never met anyone coming out ahead overall. I
like to look at peoples picks on the forum and check to see how they did
and the majority of the time they do not do well. I am not slamming
the pickers, it is the nature of the beast, you cannot come out ahead.
Today I am bored, my wifes home from work so I escape to my
computer and turn on my Twinspires. Terrible thoroughbred tracks on
Tuesdays so I click on Meadows. I haven't bet harness for a few years
and want something to watch and bet. Ron Burke has an entry in the
eighth with Palone driving part of the entry and has the one hole at
even money. I'm just killing time not going after money so I play $5.00
to place in a weak field timewise, almost no way one of his horses can't
run second. You know the end of the story and I know why I do not
follow harness racing anymore.

[Muddy]

I like to look at it like this. I can go out and golf and spend 60 to 100 and get nothing out of it except some exercise. Go fishing take the boat out spend a couple hundred and maybe catch some fish. I can stay home watch some races on the pc or go to the track and make some bets and have a chance to win something. So if you look at it as entertainment are you really losing anything more than going golfing or fishing it all costs money.

[Zydeco]

Originally Posted by Muddy

I like to look at it like this. I can go out and golf and spend 60 to 100 and get nothing out of it except some exercise. Go fishing take the boat out spend a couple hundred and maybe catch some fish. I can stay home watch some races on the pc or go to the track and make some bets and have a chance to win something. So if you look at it as entertainment are you really losing anything more than going golfing or fishing it all costs money.

This is the way I look at it. I agree.

[baconswitchfarm]

The Burke horse in the 14th was worse. Must have gotten a bad batch. Bet them back next week.

[lamboguy]

in this game you need to do your own work. if you don't work, you don't win. its that simple you will lose the takeout or more. keep in mind in order to win, you have to overcome that takeout on a consistent basis.

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by baconswitchfarm

The Burke horse in the 14th was worse. Must have gotten a bad batch. Bet them back next week.

Perhaps, being the day after a rainy track may have had something to do with the form that ran amuck on this day...Imo, that was it, today...On days such as these I play little or not at all....I will watch a few races and I will know soon enough what may be expected for the remainder of the card....

When most of the races and the horses on the day's card, have suspect form at best, it is often hard to tell, but on those types of cards I am always in guarded mode anyway...

This game isn't that hard to beat, and one can make some kash if patient enough to wait for the "lucky races" to come....For me, Good Luck happens when "preparedness" and "opportunity" COLLIDE !...

[precisionk]

Originally Posted by kuusinen27

I
like to look at peoples picks on the forum and check to see how they did
and the majority of the time they do not do well.

To answer this point, really depends on the public handicapper. Myself for example, I put the full card along with my top three picks for each race. I have always condoned betting every single race that I pick and have shown that on my website because like with any horse racing, betting every race is a losing proposition. I provide the picks to the public and let them decide what they want to do. Sure there are some races I favor over others and I note it, but betting every race should be left to the guys with too much money to lose and the action junkies.

Taking in the account if you were to bet every single race, of course alot of peoples picks do not do well as the amount of money having to spend to cover certain bets for every race can usually out number what you make back. That is where you will see my ROI on my website being terrible quite a bit cause dropping in $14 a race, every race is suicide based on my mythical wagering.

Pick your spots and roll those dice!

[mrroyboy]

I hope you are back John not just one post. Kussines, Lotta Kash wins at harness racing. I believ e some others on this site do too.
I recommend Pandys books and articles to learn more about the sport
But Muddy is right. Harness racing is exciting especially the summer meet at Meadowlands where you will see speed records broken every week.
So learn what you can and enjoy watching.

[cecil127]

Originally Posted by Muddy

I like to look at it like this. I can go out and golf and spend 60 to 100 and get nothing out of it except some exercise. Go fishing take the boat out spend a couple hundred and maybe catch some fish. I can stay home watch some races on the pc or go to the track and make some bets and have a chance to win something. So if you look at it as entertainment are you really losing anything more than going golfing or fishing it all costs money.

+1
but my fishing trips cost me a lot less....no boats for cecil127

[Vinman]

I started with Yonkers/Roosevelt in college before switching to T-Breds when my family moved to the Jersey shore near Monmouth Park and I became enamored with Secretariat, as so many did. Every few years I re-focus on Harness, because I still enjoy it....especially trying to figure out why certain drivers become "dominant" at a given circuit. For example, just a few years ago, Jason Bartlett was "the man" at YR, consistently winning at 20%+ atop the standings. Then George Brennan took over, winning at well over 20%, even after Lou Pena got the boot and George lost all those "easy money" Pena drives. Most recently, Brian Sears decided to focus on Yonkers full-time and he's blowing everyone away, coming within a nose of an 8 win night a couple of weeks ago.

But as always, after awhile I'm reminded why Harness is so frustrating. Number one, as is the case with every Harness track except the Big M and Woodbine....very small pools. You wait until 30 seconds to post, even when betting with a Tiny Tim, and your 8/5 shot turns into 3/5 as the horses hit the first quarter. Your $14 exacta becomes $8. These are your slim profit margins eroding before your very eyes. Then there are those inevitable occasions when your driver makes a boneheaded, hyperagressive prolonged dueling move to the lead instead of "dropping in". By the time they get the lead, your doom is sealed. Breakers are part of the game, but I find "teeny pools" and "stupid driver tricks" the main reasons why I always gravitate back to the "Sport of Kings".

The Big M has taken the lead in expanding the opportunities to make a nice score with a Pick 5 and a second Pick 4, but IMHO, the Harness game needs to find a way for a bettor to make a "life changing score", like the guy who hit for 3.5MM in the dime Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream last month.


Vinman

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by precisionk

To answer this point, really depends on the public handicapper. Myself for example, I put the full card along with my top three picks for each race. I have always condoned betting every single race that I pick and have shown that on my website because like with any horse racing, betting every race is a losing proposition. I provide the picks to the public and let them decide what they want to do. Sure there are some races I favor over others and I note it, but betting every race should be left to the guys with too much money to lose and the action junkies.

Taking in the account if you were to bet every single race, of course alot of peoples picks do not do well as the amount of money having to spend to cover certain bets for every race can usually out number what you make back. That is where you will see my ROI on my website being terrible quite a bit cause dropping in $14 a race, every race is suicide based on my mythical wagering.

Pick your spots and roll those dice!

Mr Trifecta: Having said all that does it not make sense to you to put up only your best spot plays on your website for the public consumption?

As it is the people who bet the public handicappers picks are all that not very well informed about handicapping and asking them to pick and choose from your picks which races to bet and which races to avoid must be very difficult for them.

Talking about public handicappers in general. Love it when they give out their best bet of the day which usually pays $2.40 ( if it wins) or thereabouts. Try making money of that pick.

[Ray2000]

IMO

The one time wealthiest robot gambler in the world, (created by Pittsburgh's Bill Benter), has spawned new generations of computer players who went after North America TBred and are now invading the larger Harness Tracks. The late action from these bots are killing Win and Exacta play. Horizontal play will be the next to get pounded, leaving the Trifecta and Superfecta, with their exorbitant take outs, the only human game in town.


http://www.worlds-greatest-gamblers....illiam-benter/

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by kuusinen27

I bet harness racing for years, owned horses up until 2006 but finally
got tired of how futile it is. I now bet thoroughbred instead because it
is too much for me to deal with being disappointed by both horses and
also drivers. I don't know about thoroughbred but in all my years being
around harness racing I never met anyone coming out ahead overall. I
like to look at peoples picks on the forum and check to see how they did
and the majority of the time they do not do well. I am not slamming
the pickers, it is the nature of the beast, you cannot come out ahead.
Today I am bored, my wifes home from work so I escape to my
computer and turn on my Twinspires. Terrible thoroughbred tracks on
Tuesdays so I click on Meadows. I haven't bet harness for a few years
and want something to watch and bet. Ron Burke has an entry in the
eighth with Palone driving part of the entry and has the one hole at
even money. I'm just killing time not going after money so I play $5.00
to place in a weak field timewise, almost no way one of his horses can't
run second. You know the end of the story and I know why I do not
follow harness racing anymore.

I'm not following...you're saying you're the best horseplayer/bettor in all of harness racing? The only way you can say that 'nobody can win' is if you feel nobody is better than you. You're saying "im the best and if i cant win, nobody else can".

Am i right, or am i missing something?

[Stillriledup]

Winning players are not betting Ron Burke to place..they're finding a way to bet against the overbet Burke horses. Burke loses 75 percent of the time, that means he's losing on a LOT of even money shots.....find a way to sniff out the burke 'bums' and if you get good at knowing which 75 percent of his horses are going to lose, you're on your way.

[pandy]

The gentleman who started this thread clearly hasn't been following harness racing that closely. Derick Giwner from Harness Eye (www.drf.com/harness) and Matt Rose have had positive ROI's at several meets doing public picks. On the USTA site (www.ustrotting.com) when I did The Grand Adventure which was my weekly exotic spot plays, after a year I had a positive ROI. Steve Carpenito showed a positive ROI in the same category. These are public handicappers.

This year I stopped selling picks on my Trotpicks website so I've been posting free picks and they are showing a profit.

You can still win betting harness racing if you are a good handicapper, have patience, pick your spots, know how to bet, and look for value.