Preakness Future Bets

[zico20]

I posted this last year and they are doing it again, there will be two different sets of futures, the first one starts this Thursday and ends Saturday night and the second is from April 26th through right before the Derby.

I will give the same advice I did last year, do NOT bet any Pletcher horse if you think they are going to run in the Derby. If they lose he skips the Preakness and if he wins the Derby like he has done twice before with Super Saver and Always Dreaming, they run up the track in Baltimore.

It should come as no surprise that Nysos is the huge ML favorite at 4-1 and the all others is 6-1. Baffert also has the 2nd choice, Maymun at 10-1. There are a total of 40 betting interests. Here is the field for those interested.

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...r_favorite_123

[castaway01]

Future bets on the Preakness seem like the ultimate in insanity. Last year one Derby horse ran in the Preakness. So there is absolutely no way to tell who will even be in the race.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Future bets on the Preakness seem like the ultimate in insanity. Last year one Derby horse ran in the Preakness. So there is absolutely no way to tell who will even be in the race.

If you like betting Preakness also-rans you can have quiet confidence that the winners of the El Camino Real Derby, Federico Tesio Stakes, & Bath House Stakes will probably be in the race...

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If you like betting Preakness also-rans you can have quiet confidence that the winners of the El Camino Real Derby, Federico Tesio Stakes, & Bath House Stakes will probably be in the race...

Brother, I suck enough at actual wagering beyond trying to figure out who will so bad that they'll fail to make the Derby but will then be revived to find their way into the Preakness....and win it.

But saying that, I'm sure that will appeal to some degenerates.

[classhandicapper]

If you look at the odds for the whole field the take is much larger than the typical pari-mutuel take. So not only are you bucking a tougher take, you are doing it with way less information. Unless you have some really special insight, that looks like a tough way to make a buck long term.

I like the idea of certain trainers not running in the Preakness if they don't win the Derby as an angle for eliminating some horses, but it just feels way too early at this point.

[the little guy]

Nysos will likely be a massive underlay but hard to know how you could play it even under those circumstances.

[rastajenk]

Or one can look at it as cheap fun, and not as a way to make a long-term buck. ; the moral equivalent of pull-tabs and scratch-offs. Certainly not worth hours of handicapping, but maybe worth a few minutes of looking at historical trends and the current lay of the land. I'm tempted to take a <$10 shot to expand my rooting interests on Preakness day.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

Or one can look at it as cheap fun, and not as a way to make a long-term buck. ; the moral equivalent of pull-tabs and scratch-offs. Certainly not worth hours of handicapping, but maybe worth a few minutes of looking at historical trends and the current lay of the land. I'm tempted to take a <$10 shot to expand my rooting interests on Preakness day.

Arguably, though, the Derby futures pools are probably better ( which is saying something! ).

[rastajenk]

No doubt. I've hit it more than once, so my 'sucker' status is certified.

[capitalman]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Nysos will likely be a massive underlay but hard to know how you could play it even under those circumstances.

I believe Nysos is clearly the best 3YO and all he has to do is stay sound & make it into the gate. Also, the futures pool is 40 betting interests, meaning the odds will be a lot higher (2 or 3 to one vs 2/5) if you're willing to take the risk he'll make it to the race 2.5 months from now.

Another advantage is if you believe he's going to romp in the San Felipe, the race won't be run until after the futures pool closes this weekend. Therefore, more money will come in on the Fountain of Youth and Gotham winners after they win with no race for Nysos until a day later. I'll take the 2/1 in the futures on a horse who will be 2/5 the day of the race.

[classhandicapper]

It might be interesting to do a study on the top 5-10 Derby prospects at any given time and calculate the percentage of them that actually make it to the Derby (and Preakness if you'd like to look at that also).

You could use any list you want. This the current DRF list.

1 Nysos
2 Sierra Leone
3 Timberlake
4 Fierceness
5 Hades
6 Muth
7 Locked
8 Dornoch
9 Track Phantom
10 Catching Freedom

If you use a list like this from Jan, Feb, Mar and April for multiple years you'd be able to figure out how the percentage that get hurt and get off the Derby trail. That would help you decide what kind of premium you need to offset injury risk.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

It might be interesting to do a study on the top 5-10 Derby prospects at any given time and calculate the percentage of them that actually make it to the Derby (and Preakness if you'd like to look at that also).

You could use any list you want. This the current DRF list.

1 Nysos
2 Sierra Leone
3 Timberlake
4 Fierceness
5 Hades
6 Muth
7 Locked
8 Dornoch
9 Track Phantom
10 Catching Freedom

If you use a list like this from Jan, Feb, Mar and April for multiple years you'd be able to figure out how the percentage that get hurt and get off the Derby trail. That would help you decide what kind of premium you need to offset injury risk.

Futures are tough. The last futures bet I made on a Derby was Captain Bodgit, right around Fountain of Youth timeframe. There was a nice offshore book named Intertops back in the day, this was before the future 'pool'. Captain Bodgit ended up running 2nd to Silver Charm who was tough to get past in the late stages. I did get some revenge with Touch Gold in the Belmont which was just a freak effort, 23 and change first quarter, dropped back then a mile later surged again to run down Bob late.

[zico20]

This post is for all the Nysos fans out there like me. If you are worried that he may get hurt and your money is down the drain, which is the only way I think he doesn't win the Preakness here is your cover.

Put 10 times your Preakness future bet on him to win the San Felipe on Sunday. Example, a $500 future bet and a $5000 win bet on Sunday. That way you are assured to break even if he pays $2.20 on Sunday. Maybe a miracle happens and he pays $2.40 and then you are a $500 winner. I doubt he pays $2.10, he didn't last race. For those of you who are saying that amount is way too much, fine, put $20 and $200. I think we are going to get 5-1 in the futures. I mean 40 betting interests on a race two and a half months away seems reasonable.

[capitalman]

Originally Posted by zico20

This post is for all the Nysos fans out there like me. If you are worried that he may get hurt and your money is down the drain, which is the only way I think he doesn't win the Preakness here is your cover.

Put 10 times your Preakness future bet on him to win the San Felipe on Sunday. Example, a $500 future bet and a $5000 win bet on Sunday. That way you are assured to break even if he pays $2.20 on Sunday. Maybe a miracle happens and he pays $2.40 and then you are a $500 winner. I doubt he pays $2.10, he didn't last race. For those of you who are saying that amount is way too much, fine, put $20 and $200. I think we are going to get 5-1 in the futures. I mean 40 betting interests on a race two and a half months away seems reasonable.

He's been around 2/1 in the futures since they opened on Thursday. No way we're getting 5/1.

[Robert Fischer]

Just a Touch for Brad Cox in the Gotham is mildly interesting.

Got bet 1st out and did it very professionally. Room to grow into size/length/scope. Brad Cox top gun in Gotham...


Is he an 'all others' or does he have a line, yet?

Twitter

Twitter

__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.

---

Last edited by Robert Fischer; 03-01-2024 at 11:02 AM.