Beyer = SORE LOSER

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Originally Posted by McSchell_Racing

Guess he has the last laugh being the worst derby winner..Guess what..He STILL won the derby!

That's right. That reminds me of what Charismatic's groom said to a heckler, when the heckler said, "He'll never win another race." The groom said, "He doesn't have to!"

The Ky Derby was the goal and Giacomo won. I think Giacomo is a better horse than a 100 Beyer Speed Figure says. Afleet Alex is also better than whatever his Beyer Fig is. Final figs are only part of the story.

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Originally Posted by ceejay

Some of Watchmaker's comments, http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=64824

If all the experts couldn't pick the winner of this year's KY Derby, why should we believe their post race analysis is any better?

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Originally Posted by rokitman

That's a ridiculous article. And the "sore loser" tag by the thread-starter is well deserved.

Maybe Beyer really isn't so bad at picking the winner the Derby. Someone on this thread said they talked to him after the race and he said he made money on the race. To make money on the race, he would have had to at least bet Afleet to show -- or else box Afleet with everyone in trifectas and supers.

So maybe he gives out false Derby picks in his articles so that he can inflate the prices on horses he likes?

If he can be cynical in his article about trainers using drugs in prep races, then I can be cynical about him having ulterior motives by giving out false favorites as likely winners.

I have heard of at least one public handicapper in England who bets his horses in the morning on Betfair before his articles appear later in the morning and influence the odds.

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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Funny, I was just thinking the same thing! Go Giacomo Go (new NTRA slogan)??!!!

PS. I am huge fan of Andy Beyer, and love all of his books. I second the Racing Hall of Fame nomination!

I agree. He's one of the best. He's not always right in his columns, but he's always colorful.

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Originally Posted by JustRalph

How can anyone say that BR bounced? Just because Beyer picked him? I keep hearing this........he ran as good as the Wood.........it seems to me. Beyer was right.........he was one of the best, but lost.

BR got the lead somewhere in the stretch, right? If the race ended there, what would his final fig have been? The pace was hot. So it would be interesting to know what the 9 furlong fig for the KY Deby is. It would need to be calculated like a final fig. My logic here is that the horses who were running well at 9f were probably running at peak of their abilities. After 9f the fatigue was too great for them to get 10f.

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Originally Posted by Kreed

Andy Beyer has ZERO handicapping skills. It's all press release stuff when you
hear of his exploits. He writes great & hit the jackpot when the DRF picked up
his figs but if he had to live off capping he'd be homeless. I doubt he gets
more than chance winners.

I stood next to A B in a betting line at the 94 Handicapper's Expo in Vegas. He was betting $60 straight exactas. I assume he is a fairly big bettor (compared to me, that is). I wouldn't say he's a legendary bettor like Pittsburgh Phil or Bill Benter. But I think he's pretty sharp.

Hell, he dropped out of Harvard -- he was smart enough to know he didn't need his degree.

[creatureman]

Could this have affected his performance??? I think so, be didn't bouce to the moon with a fig thats towered over the others like his did

[Lasix1]

Originally Posted by Tuffmug

He [Beyer] says that the pace was too fast but then comes up with the excuse that Bellamy may have lost because he was not seasoned enough. He mearly ran an early pace that used up his energy too soon. That is why he did not run back to his 120 Beyer.

No, Bellamy Road lost because he popped a splint, and my wife, who knows as much about caring for horses as anyone on this board, says that if he popped a splint, he was lucky to finish the race at all, much less win. While not life-threatening, it is painful and many horses get very lame for a time while recovering from this injury.

Given this inconvienent fact of veterinary medicine, I suspect that most of the anti-Beyer blather about Bellamy Road in this thread may now be deemed null-and-void unless the poster has a handicapping system that predicts popped splints.

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Originally Posted by Lasix1

No, Bellamy Road lost because he popped a splint, and my wife, who knows as much about caring for horses as anyone on this board, says that if he popped a splint, he was lucky to finish the race at all, much less win. While not life-threatening, it is painful and many horses get very lame for a time while recovering from this injury.

Given this inconvienent fact of veterinary medicine, I suspect that most of the anti-Beyer blather about Bellamy Road in this thread may now be deemed null-and-void unless the poster has a handicapping system that predicts popped splints.

What if he popped the splint after the race?

[creatureman]

Yes popped splint handicapping, someone should write a book...HMMMM????

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Does anyone know when he popped the splint?

[Lasix1]

Originally Posted by swetyejohn

What if he popped the splint after the race?

Given the way he was in perfect position at the top of the lane and then simply stopped, that seems an unlikely scenario to me. We may never know for sure, but my experience has been that when a top horse fades that abruply, there's usually a physical reason for it.

[creatureman]

zito says it could have happened during the race


http://msn.foxsports.com/horseracing/story/3605196

[tholl]

Oh please, Bellamy Road simply did not have the seasoning required to chase ridiculously fast fractions having had only two, what may have well have been, souped up workouts. Immature horses pop splints often when they get overexerted and this was the case here. To use it as an excuse is lame (lol).

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Originally Posted by Lasix1

Given the way he was in perfect position at the top of the lane and then simply stopped, that seems an unlikely scenario to me. We may never know for sure, but my experience has been that when a top horse fades that abruply, there's usually a physical reason for it.

I agree with you. But there are a lot of different types of physical reasons. To me, he looked like he was fully extended in the stretch, but very tired. My personal feeling is that he was not fit enough. It's too bad he's hurt. With a hard race like the Derby under his belt he'd be awfully tough in the Preakness.

I still look for Afleet Alex to romp home. The KY Derby had to be good conditioning for a lot of these horses. Giacomo and Closing Argument will be much fitter, too.

However, it's possible that the race took so much out of some of these horses that they will spit out the bit when they feel the pain of another tough race.

I remember running the 440 dash in high school. I was a high jumper (anerobic) but my coach needed a guy for the 440. So I tried it. I thought I was going to die. I had never been so tired in my life. I hit the wall about the top of the stretch and staggered home. I thought for sure I was going to vomit. My lungs were burning and my legs were so wobbly I could barely stand up. I ran the 440 one more time, but even slower. I was not going to put myself through that pain again. I was just not fit enough, arobically, to run that race.

I imagine some of these horses will feel the same way in the Preakness. The Derby will take it's toll on some of these horses.

That's just a theory -- not a fact.

Beyer is funny because on the one hand he wrote in his pre-Derby analysis that a horse needs a foundation to compete in the Derby. On the other hand, he writes that BR's 120 figure towered over the rest of the field and he should romp home. Those two contradictory facts should have been enough to warn people to bet BR with caution -- IMHO.