Rich Strike?

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by Gallop58

I hate to say it but my first thought was imagining the backstretch PA system right after the race; “Number 21 to the test barn please, number 21 to the test barn.”
Someone cut together replays of all his races on YouTube. To my eye the stride rate/quickening he showed in the Derby did not seem to even be hinted at before.
That’s horse racing I guess. Good for them.

YouTube must have left out the race he won by 17 lengths, over the same track he won on Saturday.


It's actually not that crazy once you have a good look at the horse (which clearly not enough of us did)


He broke his maiden over his first try on dirt, before that he had only run on Turf. In 7 lifetime starts before the Derby only three had come on Dirt. He hadn't run on dirt at all this year.


He ran third to Tiz the Bomb in the race prior to the Derby, Tiz the Bomb is clearly a very good Turf horse, so it's not an awful showing that RS hit the board on that race over synthetic. He did so passing about 10 horses in the final 1/4 or so.


It's not that crazy to me that this horse won, the signs were there that he could win, we all just missed them. His last run on dirt prior to the Derby was The Gun Runner at fairgrounds won by Epicenter, absolutely no pace to speak of and only 8.5 furlongs. But it was a stakes race, as was the last 4 of his races before the Derby. It's not like the horse was running in county fairs leading up to this.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

YouTube must have left out the race he won by 17 lengths, over the same track he won on Saturday.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrVT7WUKmIA

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

YouTube must have left out the race he won by 17 lengths, over the same track he won on Saturday.


It's actually not that crazy once you have a good look at the horse (which clearly not enough of us did)


He broke his maiden over his first try on dirt, before that he had only run on Turf. In 7 lifetime starts before the Derby only three had come on Dirt. He hadn't run on dirt at all this year.


He ran third to Tiz the Bomb in the race prior to the Derby, Tiz the Bomb is clearly a very good Turf horse, so it's not an awful showing that RS hit the board on that race over synthetic. He did so passing about 10 horses in the final 1/4 or so.


It's not that crazy to me that this horse won, the signs were there that he could win, we all just missed them. His last run on dirt prior to the Derby was The Gun Runner at fairgrounds won by Epicenter, absolutely no pace to speak of and only 8.5 furlongs. But it was a stakes race, as was the last 4 of his races before the Derby. It's not like the horse was running in county fairs leading up to this.

C'mon. An Also-Eligible's 30,000 MC win 8 months ago is not sign that a horse can win the derby. First thing is if the connections are farting around running him on turf and synthetic, you have to believe they don't think his best will be run on dirt. And a 3rd place finish on a synthetic surface to a Derby 31-1 shot in a race with nothing but Derby longshots doesn't get my attention either.

And another thing, yes, he's not a county fair horse. But you know who else isn't a county fair horse, every other entry in the Derby plus 100s of others that would have run in the derby if they had qualified.

If this horse had signs saying he could win the Derby, so did every other horse in the race. If you're not going use all 20 horses in the win spot, and you were looking for entries with the least signs to winning, this would be most everyone's first toss out.

To me this result was similar to John Daly in the 1991 PGA. He was the last one let in the tournament due to a last second withdraw and had to drive all night to get to start of tournament. Nobody had ever heard of him and he walked away with the major. John Daly had some some other nice finishes since that time including another Major, the British Open. It remains to be seen if Rich Strike can do the same but I'm sure not betting on it.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrVT7WUKmIA

There we go.


It's a small time race to be sure, but this is what he did the last time he changed surfaces to dirt, over the very same track.


I'm not saying he is a superhorse or anything, just trying to shoot down some of the "he must have been drugged" crowd. He is a stone cold closer who loves the dirt, ran into a torrid pace with nothing but a bunch of milers in front of him. It's not so far fetched, let's give the horse some credit.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lured

C'mon. An Also-Eligible's 30,000 MC win 8 months ago is not sign that a horse can win the derby. First thing is if the connections are farting around running him on turf and synthetic, you have to believe they don't think his best will be run on dirt. And a 3rd place finish on a synthetic surface to a Derby 31-1 shot in a race with nothing but Derby longshots doesn't get my attention either.

And another thing, yes, he's not a county fair horse. But you know who else isn't a county fair horse, every other entry in the Derby plus 100s of others that would have run in the derby if they had qualified.

If this horse had signs saying he could win the Derby, so did every other horse in the race. If you're not going use all 20 horses in the win spot, and you were looking for entries with the least signs to winning, this would be most everyone's first toss out.

Well first off the connections that ran him on Turf are the same connections that left him open to the claim before he ever raced on Dirt. (The race in the replay was the day of the claim)


Second off noone is disputing that he would be a pretty quick toss, obviously there were more qualified horses coming in. He got the setup he needed, an amazing ride and clearly he is better than everyone gave him credit for. If anything this shows what can happen when there is some actual pace in the race, and when connections understand their horse and stick to their gameplan.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

There we go.


It's a small time race to be sure, but this is what he did the last time he changed surfaces to dirt, over the very same track.


I'm not saying he is a superhorse or anything, just trying to shoot down some of the "he must have been drugged" crowd. He is a stone cold closer who loves the dirt, ran into a torrid pace with nothing but a bunch of milers in front of him. It's not so far fetched, let's give the horse some credit.

I agree he wasn't drugged. He was the only one left with a great kick after a mile or so after a torrid pace. His powerful late run, while impressive, was still more about the horses in front of him crawling than it was about some sensational Cigar type late kick.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Well first off the connections that ran him on Turf are the same connections that left him open to the claim before he ever raced on Dirt. (The race in the replay was the day of the claim)


Second off noone is disputing that he would be a pretty quick toss, obviously there were more qualified horses coming in. He got the setup he needed, an amazing ride and clearly he is better than everyone gave him credit for. If anything this shows what can happen when there is some actual pace in the race, and when connections understand their horse and stick to their gameplan.

I doubt when the current connections claimed him they were thinking "What a steal, this is horse can win the Derby".. I think they thought they got a nice horse for 30 grand and the previous connections were happy with the 30 grand they got for him.

But you clarified yourself with the part about cheating and that I agree with you. But not the hindsight of "signs that he could win".

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lured

I agree he wasn't drugged. He was the only one left with a great kick after a mile or so after a torrid pace. His powerful late run, while impressive, was still more about the horses in front of him crawling than it was about some sensational Cigar type late kick.

For sure, lots of horses ran faster than him the first, second & third quarter.



Where are they today?



It's all part of the sport, we can't minimize the accomplishment because the horses in front of him weren't up to the task.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lured

I doubt when the current connections claimed him they were thinking "What a steal, this is horse can win the Derby".. I think they thought they got a nice horse for 30 grand and the previous connections were happy with the 30 grand they got for him.

But you clarified yourself with the part about cheating and that I agree with you. But not the hindsight of "signs that he could win".

Did you watch that race? I guarantee you on that afternoon, Reed was thinking the horse liked that specific dirt pretty good, and Calumet was thinking maybe they should have at least tried him on dirt once before putting him in for a claim.


Now later on probably reality set in, but that race, taken in context is pretty authoritative, noone ever lost a two year old doing something like that at Churchill no less and was like "gee I'm glad we sent that one down the road"

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

For sure, lots of horses ran faster than him the first, second & third quarter.



Where are they today?



It's all part of the sport, we can't minimize the accomplishment because the horses in front of him weren't up to the task.

I'm not minimizing it. But I still don't believe this horse can win without a ridiculous pace. One never seen before in the Derby.

The two foreign horses are the ones who caused it. I usually look at how many speed horses we have in the race when trying to forecast the pace and I did not see enough that showed they liked the lead. But the two foreigners went out there with no strategy other than balls out and the fact Cox, Yakteen(Baffort), and Pletcher had multiple entries in which I'm sure they instructed at least one of theirs to stay close to the pace, caused the craziness.

I don't think we're going to see anything like this again real often. I just can't fathom why they would ship these horses oversees just to run a suicide pace in the Derby.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

Did you watch that race? I guarantee you on that afternoon, Reed was thinking the horse liked that specific dirt pretty good, and Calumet was thinking maybe they should have at least tried him on dirt once before putting him in for a claim.


Now later on probably reality set in, but that race, taken anin context is pretty authoritative, noone ever lost a two year old doing something like that at Churchill no less and was like "gee I'm glad we sent that one down the road"

I just watched the race when it was posted here. All I know is he won by 17 lengths while running 1:36 4. That means the best of the other maidens in the race ran 1:40 and change. That tells me he was way below class in a 30000 MC. That never screams Derby to me. That might scream 30,000 MSW or 50000 MC. When race was over, maybe they did think they got a steal, but not a 1.6 million dollar steal.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by lured

I'm not minimizing it. But I still don't believe this horse can win without a ridiculous pace. One never seen before in the Derby.

The two foreign horses are the ones who caused it. I usually look at how many speed horses we have in the race when trying to forecast the pace and I did not see enough that showed they liked the lead. But the two foreigners went out there with no strategy other than balls out and the fact Cox, Yakteen(Baffort), and Pletcher had multiple entries in which I'm sure they instructed at least one of theirs to stay close to the pace, caused the craziness.

I don't think we're going to see anything like this again real often. I just can't fathom why they would ship these horses oversees just to run a suicide pace in the Derby.

In watching the race again I think the real error was so many horses keeping the lead in their grasp. Realistically it never got that strung out. Given the pace on the front the two foreign horses and Messier should have been 5 lengths clear of the entire field, but they had a solid pack following them down the backstretch.


I also think the long stretch ate Rosario up. Epicenter ran one hell of a race, but Rosario was blasting him off the final turn like there was 100 yards to run.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by Brisk Urging

It was 99-1 all day which means it could have been 125-1. Yet with less than an hour to go it “drops” to 80-1? That’s worthy of investigation? No way 20 across or even 200 across from random bettors drops the number that much

$623,000 bet on him to win.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Rex Phinney

In watching the race again I think the real error was so many horses keeping the lead in their grasp. Realistically it never got that strung out. Given the pace on the front the two foreign horses and Messier should have been 5 lengths clear of the entire field, but they had a solid pack following them down the backstretch.


I also think the long stretch ate Rosario up. Epicenter ran one hell of a race, but Rosario was blasting him off the final turn like there was 100 yards to run.

I'm not sure if the stalking jockeys can measure the pace being set enough to judge if you should be 1 length vs 5 lengths behind. Sometimes they just have to take a leap of faith that the pace setter isn't going crazy.

I've got to say though, while the moves he made down the stretch was pretty cool, I think the best part of Leon's ride is that he was patient, something you rarely see out of a Derby rookie.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by lured

I'm not sure if the stalking jockeys can measure the pace being set enough to judge if you should be 1 length vs 5 lengths behind. Sometimes they just have to take a leap of faith that the pace setter isn't going crazy.

I've got to say though, while the moves he made down the stretch was pretty cool, I think the best part of Leon's ride is that he was patient, something you rarely see out of a Derby rookie.

1/2 of a mile into the race and Rosario was 8th with Epicenter, I think they should know they are flying.