Flintshire- vulnerable...

[Mc990]

In breaking down his form, it seems the last was a regression off the 1st Lasix back in June. Now he comes in with much less rest than his last and spots some weight to a couple competitive horses in MM and Grand Tito.

Seems to me he's a play against at even money let alone 1-5... Thoughts?

This is more about the lasix than the weight. He can't possibly have his A game tomorrow, right?

[letswastemoney]

I don't think it was a regression.

The pace was very slow, so the final time wasn't fast. That's all.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Mc990

In breaking down his form, it seems the last was a regression off the 1st Lasix back in June. Now he comes in with much less rest than his last and spots some weight to a couple competitive horses in MM and Grand Tito.

Seems to me he's a play against at even money let alone 1-5... Thoughts?

This is more about the lasix than the weight. He can't possibly have his A game tomorrow, right?

For me, he is a tough bet against. Loves the SPA, the distance, oozes with class, won the race last year, and really likes a firm turf course.

all signs point to an easy win.

Allan

[EMD4ME]

Regression???? The Ortiz brothers rightfully rode to make him lose last time and he overcame it all in an amazing stretch effort.

Quite the opposite of a regression.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

Regression???? The Ortiz brothers rightfully rode to make him lose last time and he overcame it all in an amazing stretch effort.

Quite the opposite of a regression.

Gotta agree that even if you can make a case for regression on paper, the race itself is a different story. It was a lesson in how to get him beat if he's going to get beaten and even still he was able to overcome it in an eighth of a mile. Admittedly I haven't really looked at the upcoming race in question, but have to think it will take the same amount of trouble or more plus a way better group of horses lining up against him for Flintshire to find a way to lose any time soon.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Gotta agree that even if you can make a case for regression on paper, the race itself is a different story. It was a lesson in how to get him beat if he's going to get beaten and even still he was able to overcome it in an eighth of a mile. Admittedly I haven't really looked at the upcoming race in question, but have to think it will take the same amount of trouble or more plus a way better group of horses lining up against him for Flintshire to find a way to lose any time soon.

That's why I encourage everyone to use limited tools (just paper, just the sheets, just any figure service). The less well rounded horseplayers are, the more they lose and keep looking to tweek a program or system to FIND that winning formula.

In the meantime, the well rounded collect and make more and more and more.

[cj]

I like money a little too much to try to beat this horse, similar to Songbird the last couple times.

[Radar]

It is people like Andy Serling, who never found a favorite that he will find reasons to bet against, that would want to wager real hard-earned money against as solid a bet as Flintshire. To quote Andy's freequent less than obvious hedge "I'm not saying he can't win" Flinshire looks the most probable winner on a great Travers Day card

[cj]

Originally Posted by Radar

It is people like Andy Serling, who never found a favorite that he will find reasons to bet against, that would want to wager real hard-earned money against as solid a bet as Flintshire. To quote Andy's freequent less than obvious hedge "I'm not saying he can't win" Flinshire looks the most probable winner on a great Travers Day card

Andy will often say he isn't trying to beat a favorite.

[horses4courses]

With such an excellent, contentious, card at Saratoga tomorrow,
Flintshire will be a single in the late PK4 for me.

Spreading in the races after the Sword Dancer will be necessary.
Lady Eli will be a heavy favorite in R12 - worth trying to beat, though.

If my key gets beat in the first leg, I'm done in the late Pk4.

Great day of racing in store

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

For me, he is a tough bet against. Loves the SPA, the distance, oozes with class, won the race last year, and really likes a firm turf course.

all signs point to an easy win.

Allan

With the heavy rainfall Thursday night, cooler temps at night, with high humidity and reduced hours of sunshine, the turf courses will have some excess moisture in them.
At this point, I don't think it matters. Flintshire is just that good.

[Rollingpk3]

hate that the the race is included in both of the late pk 4's

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Rarely do you see a 4 horse field in which the 3 other jockeys did their absolute best to try and beat a single horse as the Bowling Green last out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT3rXBlUjnk

Horse had every reason to finish dead last, but still won. You say regression, I see one of the more impressive wins of the year.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by cj

Andy will often say he isn't trying to beat a favorite.

A good example of this would be TLG's discussion of today's 10th race. He spoke about a few factors as to why he could see the favorite getting beat, but did pick the horse as his win selection. In fact, of the 5 people working the Saratoga Live show, TLG was the only one that used the ( Super Surprise) as his selection.....

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

With such an excellent, contentious, card at Saratoga tomorrow,
Flintshire will be a single in the late PK4 for me.

Spreading in the races after the Sword Dancer will be necessary.
Lady Eli will be a heavy favorite in R12 - worth trying to beat, though.

If my key gets beat in the first leg, I'm done in the late Pk4.

Great day of racing in store

Yes...it will be.....Even more encouraging is the weather forecast...
Mostly Sunny High 84....Winds, light and variable.......