Mike Watchmaker let go by DRF?

[surfdog89]

SAD.............GREAT HANDICAPPER

[SandyLoam]

AskinHaskin: "Your points seem relevant... to 1995 Time to update your awareness and understanding"


You take your cheap shot, but you don't (can't) back it up. Did you think I meant mimeograph? Compare 1995 and 2019, in your snapshot.

Unless DRF has stopped selling the printed form at tracks, OTBs and racebooks, delivering the Form on newsprint is a nightmare of logistics and expense, even though they have it down pat, I'm sure. The last time I bought a printed Form (it was the mid-oughts), DRF was already scamming into making you buy two if you wanted two key tracks. I went to online PDF downloads which, for the user, is also expensive in paper and ink.

When I say that DRF could develop some sort of delivery system on-site, it was all based on the premise that The Form would be highly interested in maintaining its market share and deep penetration in the PPs business in all these venues. DRF may not have the creativity or initiative to develop such a system. The wagering venues could do it themselves. OR, DRF may have determined that it doesn't have numbers—it might believe that the majority of players ARE downloading and printing out PDFs, with the balance perhaps tilted strongly to horseplayers participating at home. As I do. As I said, I'm in the business and I can assure you DRF is in a deep thought process about its print and distribution overhead.

I'm also in the data business and DRF's model is fairly typical, analogous to its print version. You buy the data and get (fewer) stories up front. The specific problem in this case is that they got rid of their two best reporters and writers, the two most thoughtful. Don't ever expect DRF to address the real threats the game is facing, but with this, their heads went even deeper into the sand or up their . . . take your pick.

AND, unless you are he, does Haskin over at Bloodhorse know about your handle? Make your argument, give me facts, change my mind. Until then, AskinHaskin, stow the snark.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by SandyLoam

AskinHaskin: "Your points seem relevant... to 1995 Time to update your awareness and understanding"


You take your cheap shot, but you don't (can't) back it up. Did you think I meant mimeograph? Compare 1995 and 2019, in your snapshot.

Unless DRF has stopped selling the printed form at tracks, OTBs and racebooks, delivering the Form on newsprint is a nightmare of logistics and expense, even though they have it down pat, I'm sure. The last time I bought a printed Form (it was the mid-oughts), DRF was already scamming into making you buy two if you wanted two key tracks. I went to online PDF downloads which, for the user, is also expensive in paper and ink.

When I say that DRF could develop some sort of delivery system on-site, it was all based on the premise that The Form would be highly interested in maintaining its market share and deep penetration in the PPs business in all these venues. DRF may not have the creativity or initiative to develop such a system. The wagering venues could do it themselves. OR, DRF may have determined that it doesn't have numbers—it might believe that the majority of players ARE downloading and printing out PDFs, with the balance perhaps tilted strongly to horseplayers participating at home. As I do. As I said, I'm in the business and I can assure you DRF is in a deep thought process about its print and distribution overhead.

I'm also in the data business and DRF's model is fairly typical, analogous to its print version. You buy the data and get (fewer) stories up front. The specific problem in this case is that they got rid of their two best reporters and writers, the two most thoughtful. Don't ever expect DRF to address the real threats the game is facing, but with this, their heads went even deeper into the sand or up their . . . take your pick.

AND, unless you are he, does Haskin over at Bloodhorse know about your handle? Make your argument, give me facts, change my mind. Until then, AskinHaskin, stow the snark.

Alas, you're still in 1995 !!

Clearly you have zero idea or understanding of the current/2019 state of DRF distribution or presence.


Time to update your claimed knowledge to the present.


There is no argument involved. It is clear to most who have read your entries here that you're about 20 years behind the present-day state of the horse racing industry. Just update your awareness to today and cease to write in future tense about things which are ten and twenty years in the past.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'd love to see you both post what exactly you think the distribution/presence or whatever you want to call it is...this should be fun.

[SandyLoam]

Fair question, PA. Put up or shut up.

But first, AskinHaskin, you can rant and rave all you want, but until you bring some bones to the table, you got nuthin'. And don't you DARE emphasize my text!

My impression of DRF print circulation is that it proportionally and actually very low. That electronic access is vastly heavier for DRF.

Daily Racing Form's print circulation numbers are not audited. Being a private company, it doesn't divulge detailed figures, except to declare in its promotional materials distribution of 4.4 million copies annually, including some kind of Kentucky Derby bump. That amounts to 11,827 per day based on a 31-day month. With 39 U.S. tracks running last Saturday, that amounts to 303 per track, again MINUS however many are distributed to casinos, race books, OTBs or wherever. It's quite possible some tracks do not sell the print DRF at all.

All things being equal in 2019, given the ability to put things on airplanes, chances are DRF does not have the intricate regional/local printing network it once did. But it does have overhead costs it wouldn't have if it went completely digital. My thinking-out-loud was that in order to maintain market penetration and service its legendary brand, a kiosk for printing out PDF race cards instead of buying the traditional print product from a vendor at a track might be feasible. That would take a small technology effort and cooperation between all parties. Additionally, The Form has not been available on any newsstand I know of in Chicago for many years, which is perfectly understandable.

Questions would include, of any track, how many of the patrons utilize The Form? How many of those bring PDF printouts from home, how many buy the print edition at the track? Depending on the track demographic, usage of the track program versus The Form fluctuates. But the point here is that printed-copy numbers are very low.

Depending on the financial health of The Form, it might be making the strategic decision to get rid of feature writers it deems overpaid, hire cheaper/younger people to crank out its boilerplate stories—much of which you can glean from The Form itself!—and concentrate only on selling the data, in a more competitive racing data environment. But Watchmaker, and sometimes Hovdey and Privman, were the only ones worth seeking out.

PaceAdvantage, I sure hope AskinHaskin can tell all of us EVERYTHING about horse racing. He says he knows, but we've seen no proof.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by SandyLoam

Fair question, PA. Put up or shut up.

But first, AskinHaskin, you can rant and rave all you want, but until you bring some bones to the table, you got nuthin'. And don't you DARE emphasize my text!

My impression of DRF print circulation is that it proportionally and actually very low. That electronic access is vastly heavier for DRF.

Daily Racing Form's print circulation numbers are not audited. Being a private company, it doesn't divulge detailed figures, except to declare in its promotional materials distribution of 4.4 million copies annually, including some kind of Kentucky Derby bump. That amounts to 11,827 per day based on a 31-day month. With 39 U.S. tracks running last Saturday, that amounts to 303 per track, again MINUS however many are distributed to casinos, race books, OTBs or wherever. It's quite possible some tracks do not sell the print DRF at all.

All things being equal in 2019, given the ability to put things on airplanes, chances are DRF does not have the intricate regional/local printing network it once did. But it does have overhead costs it wouldn't have if it went completely digital. My thinking-out-loud was that in order to maintain market penetration and service its legendary brand, a kiosk for printing out PDF race cards instead of buying the traditional print product from a vendor at a track might be feasible. That would take a small technology effort and cooperation between all parties. Additionally, The Form has not been available on any newsstand I know of in Chicago for many years, which is perfectly understandable.

Questions would include, of any track, how many of the patrons utilize The Form? How many of those bring PDF printouts from home, how many buy the print edition at the track? Depending on the track demographic, usage of the track program versus The Form fluctuates. But the point here is that printed-copy numbers are very low.

Depending on the financial health of The Form, it might be making the strategic decision to get rid of feature writers it deems overpaid, hire cheaper/younger people to crank out its boilerplate stories—much of which you can glean from The Form itself!—and concentrate only on selling the data, in a more competitive racing data environment. But Watchmaker, and sometimes Hovdey and Privman, were the only ones worth seeking out.

PaceAdvantage, I sure hope AskinHaskin can tell all of us EVERYTHING about horse racing. He says he knows, but we've seen no proof.

TLDR: "I have no actual insight into what is happening at DRF in terms of circulation/distribution, but I'm going to 99% speculate nonetheless."

My guess? AH will be more of the same, IF he were to ever answer my question, but he/she won't. Never does. He/she is WAY too cool for school.

[wisconsin]

Originally Posted by SandyLoam

a kiosk for printing out PDF race cards instead of buying the traditional print product from a vendor at a track might be feasible.

They already exist. Ho-Chunk Casio in Baraboo, WI has one, complete with the DRF logo.

[SandyLoam]

Great! Smart.

[dilanesp]

I don't have any access to internal numbers, so I can only make the most general point about the Racing Form's financial situation.

But I would imagine that part of the operation's profitability, perhaps a big part of it, arose out of its quasi-monopoly on past performance information. (It was never quite an actual monopoly-- depending on what you wanted, there were always competitors offering some form of past performances. But those operations were small and specialized and didn't have anything like the market penetration and distribution the DRF had.)

That really doesn't exist anymore. I can, for instance, log onto xpressbet and obtain past performance information from several sources, many of which are cheaper than the DRF. Like DRF, these services obtain their data from Equibase, so other than Beyer Speed Figures (and let's face it, there are lots of good speed figure services), you are basically getting the same information.

I would imagine that this could be hurting the DRF's profitability a lot. Because it was always the past performances that drove the sales of the publication. Like Playboy, nobody really read it for the articles.

I don't know the solution for this, however.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I don't know the solution for this, however.

If you ask me, one possible solution is hiring some really bright guys with advanced stats degrees from top universities and let them work with the best handicappers available in house to develop statistics, metrics, and models that measure things in different, new and improved ways. There are already teams out there doing that for themselves.

Every major sport is changing the way fans look at and understand their respective games. Even TV personalities are using the new stats and language.

Gambling on horses is the most data driven game out there.

It's sitting there waiting to be brought into the new century.

You said it yourself. The main thing that DRF brings to the table over other PP providers (other than the look and feel that people get used to) is Beyer figures. If they developed new proprietary metrics, stats, and models they'd have something that some people might be willing to pay a premium for in the same way some are willing to pay extra for Beyer info.

[ubercapper]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you ask me, one possible solution is hiring some really bright guys with advanced stats degrees from top universities and let them work with the best handicappers available in house to develop statistics, metrics, and models that measure things in different, new and improved ways. There are already teams out there doing that for themselves.

Every major sport is changing the way fans look at and understand their respective games. Even TV personalities are using the new stats and language.

Gambling on horses is the most data driven game out there.

It's sitting there waiting to be brought into the new century.

You said it yourself. The main thing that DRF brings to the table over other PP providers (other than the look and feel that people get used to) is Beyer figures. If they developed new proprietary metrics, stats, and models they'd have something that some people might be willing to pay a premium for in the same way some are willing to pay extra for Beyer info.

What your espousing already exists. It's called STATS Race Lens.



STATS (now STATS Perform) approached the industry to build a product about five years ago. They used their sports data analytics teams to come up with these types of metrics which are part of STATS Race Lens. STATS Race Lens also offers the equivalent of direct access so people can do their own queries, and for people who want to do their own handicapping there are traditional PPs as well as ways to deep dive into trainer, jockey, sire and dam statistics.

[devilsbag]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You said it yourself. The main thing that DRF brings to the table over other PP providers (other than the look and feel that people get used to) is Beyer figures.

I always thought that the clean look of the DRF PPs was a huge selling point, and the fact that people were used to it kept them as faithful purchasers of the paper. Really the initial competitor were track programs, but now I'd suspect the internet is the primary source of purchased PPs.

Those would be the sales numbers to see, but I'm another with no access to hard data and can only take my best guess.

I can say that in the early days of the internet the DRF stuck to their guns and kept the price of a card at (as I recall) $2.95. Had they gotten competitive with BRIS and others and sold them for a $1 per card, they would likely have maintained their loyal base. I think they just made it too tempting to shop around.

Simultaneously, IMHO the PPs have become a sloppy mess. I realize that additional information is helpful, but it's a sea of boldface, italics, and among other things they can't even keep the nice look of the company line and the trouble line. How many people that impacts, I don't know, but it puts them more on par with their competitors.

I think the paywall was the final straw and chased people away from the DRF site period.

It's not like there weren't problems years ago. Nothing like a crease running down the printed paper or a race spread across three broadsheet pages, but there weren't any other choices. Now they are far from the only game in town, the fan base is shrinking, and the newspaper industry is teetering on extinction. If someone buys DRF, they have a lot of work to do and it still may be too late.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

If you ask me, one possible solution is hiring some really bright guys with advanced stats degrees from top universities and let them work with the best handicappers available in house to develop statistics, metrics, and models that measure things in different, new and improved ways. There are already teams out there doing that for themselves.

Every major sport is changing the way fans look at and understand their respective games. Even TV personalities are using the new stats and language.

Gambling on horses is the most data driven game out there.

It's sitting there waiting to be brought into the new century.

You said it yourself. The main thing that DRF brings to the table over other PP providers (other than the look and feel that people get used to) is Beyer figures. If they developed new proprietary metrics, stats, and models they'd have something that some people might be willing to pay a premium for in the same way some are willing to pay extra for Beyer info.

in my experience every new wiz bang way to analyze the horses ends up pointing at the Favorite. Or 2-3 logical favs.

wasted time at that point

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

in my experience every new wiz bang way to analyze the horses ends up pointing at the Favorite. Or 2-3 logical favs.

wasted time at that point

Well, most horse races have reasonably logical results!

There used to be a handicapper in the LA Times named Curtis Crayon. He was constantly picking longshots. His win percentage and ROI were in the toilet, a fact that was often pointed out to the paper. I kind of liked him though-- it was fun when he'd come up with some 30 to 1 bomb.

The point, though, is that when you are asked to handicap every race, the only approach that will produce decent win and ROI statistics is to stay close to the chalk.

And the imperatives of publishing requires handicappers to handicap every race. Nobody would buy a publication that said "there's nothing playable at Del Mar today". Even though that might be completely true. Indeed, people won't even buy a publication that says that any race other than, perhaps, a Grade I stakes horse running against 4 overmatched foes at 1 to 5 is unplayable.

Handicapping publications give out chalky plays because that's the only business model which works for most horseplayers who, lets face it, have the same problems that many other gamblers have with respect to sitting out and waiting for spots. Now there are some high end products out there who might give out real +EV play on a sporadic basis for their subscribers, but that depends on a small, patient subscriber base which can wait for it to happen.

[jay68802]

All of this is fine and dandy. But without accurate times for every horse and exact distances, it is going to lead right to where we are now.