1 1/8 Prep Final Fraction Thread

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

I forgot, what were the cutoff times for 3/8ths and 1/8th? Thanks.

From my old Stanley book: must achieve a final 3/8 in 37.8 (37 4/5) seconds or less or a final eighth in 12.8 (12 4/5) seconds or less

Those are raw times but with some of the tracks running quite slow it may be worth considering adjusted fractions which give Tacitus and Roadster a boost.

[Parson]

I have been going back reading Mr. Caris's E-book, Analyzing the Triple Crown. I have started working up a spreadsheet based on that criteria. So far the only thing I am missing and will have to wait until the DRF pps are available. Indicator 6, win a race at a mile or more at age 2 and get a Beyer of 92 or more at age 2.

All that being said, Improbable looks like the best on paper, but next is Maximum Security. I am still trying to determine if the FL Derby fractions were a fluke. I know he does not get this race to set up like that one. And if you do not know, the indicators score 2-8 pts, and the fractions are only worth 2 pts. Anyone else know what to do about this horse???

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Parson

I have been going back reading Mr. Caris's E-book, Analyzing the Triple Crown. I have started working up a spreadsheet based on that criteria. So far the only thing I am missing and will have to wait until the DRF pps are available. Indicator 6, win a race at a mile or more at age 2 and get a Beyer of 92 or more at age 2.

All that being said, Improbable looks like the best on paper, but next is Maximum Security. I am still trying to determine if the FL Derby fractions were a fluke. I know he does not get this race to set up like that one. And if you do not know, the indicators score 2-8 pts, and the fractions are only worth 2 pts. Anyone else know what to do about this horse???

Id imagine Tax scores well on his indicators? Won over a mile at 2 and earned 93 beyer at 2 and is a Buckpasser X horse

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Parson

I have been going back reading Mr. Caris's E-book, Analyzing the Triple Crown. I have started working up a spreadsheet based on that criteria. So far the only thing I am missing and will have to wait until the DRF pps are available. Indicator 6, win a race at a mile or more at age 2 and get a Beyer of 92 or more at age 2.

All that being said, Improbable looks like the best on paper, but next is Maximum Security. I am still trying to determine if the FL Derby fractions were a fluke. I know he does not get this race to set up like that one. And if you do not know, the indicators score 2-8 pts, and the fractions are only worth 2 pts. Anyone else know what to do about this horse???

I came up with the same result. I'll use both. Problem solved. Can't leave the fastest closing unbeaten RAN off the ticket especially since the Derby looks light on early speed types which might favor his FL Derby running style.

[Parson]

I have compiled everything except indicator 3, must achieve 98 or higher beyer at age 3 in a 9F stake race and achieve 3/8 time of 37 4/5 or less or final 1/8 of 12 4/5, and indicator 6, must win at a mile or more at age 2 and also achieve a beyer of 92 or more at age 2. I do not have access to those beyers to complete and will have to wait until DRF releases the PPs. But I show Tax, not that you provided me his beyer number for indicator 6 as having 11 out a possible 22 pts and could earn 2 more indicator 3, for a possible total of 13. However, I do not see him getting those 2 pts because of the final 3/8 and 1/8 in the Wood. Perhaps I miscalculated that???

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

Yep, I'll update it as the field gets clearer and eventually finalizes.

Here is what I have post Arkansas Derby. I only included horses in the top 30 in points with a qualifying race. As the field firms up I'll make the necessary changes.

[Parson]

Thanks CJ, I am just not familiar enough with TimeForm numbers. How do they correspond with BRIS, or Beyers?

[cj]

Originally Posted by Parson

Thanks CJ, I am just not familiar enough with TimeForm numbers. How do they correspond with BRIS, or Beyers?

Beyer are pretty simple, scale is about 20 points higher. BRIS I have a formula around here somewhere, I'll see if I can find it. Of course those are just general estimates and individual races vary.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by cj

Beyer are pretty simple, scale is about 20 points higher. BRIS I have a formula around here somewhere, I'll see if I can find it. Of course those are just general estimates and individual races vary.

you have tax on the list twice

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Parson

I have compiled everything except indicator 3, must achieve 98 or higher beyer at age 3 in a 9F stake race and achieve 3/8 time of 37 4/5 or less or final 1/8 of 12 4/5, and indicator 6, must win at a mile or more at age 2 and also achieve a beyer of 92 or more at age 2. I do not have access to those beyers to complete and will have to wait until DRF releases the PPs. But I show Tax, not that you provided me his beyer number for indicator 6 as having 11 out a possible 22 pts and could earn 2 more indicator 3, for a possible total of 13. However, I do not see him getting those 2 pts because of the final 3/8 and 1/8 in the Wood. Perhaps I miscalculated that???

Very few. I'd consider hedging that to 96 given the gradual decline in BSF since Stanley wrote that book.

PowerUpPaynter has a great list here

Another nice list of winners here.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

you have tax on the list twice

He ran two of the preps that are 9f, the Withers and the Wood.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by cj

He ran two of the preps that are 9f, the Withers and the Wood.

oh i see... Tax is laying in the weeds waiting to blow up the exotics adding a 25-1 in there

[Parson]

Very few. I'd consider hedging that to 96 given the gradual decline in BSF since Stanley wrote that book.


I hear you on hedging, but my calculations do not show he makes the 3/8 or 1/8 time threshold. I only see him getting 2 more pts for a max of 13 I believe.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Parson

I hear you on hedging, but my calculations do not show he makes the 3/8 or 1/8 time threshold. I only see him getting 2 more pts for a max of 13 I believe.

Probably not a good enough closer to win but perhaps strong enough overall to stay ahead of most.

[señorclipclop]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I have post Arkansas Derby. I only included horses in the top 30 in points with a qualifying race. As the field firms up I'll make the necessary changes.

Are the LFs the adjusted final 3/8ths? I'd be interested in seeing Chitu, Firing Line, and Hence's in their respective Sunland Derbies. Trying to get a better read on the top two from there this year.