AP vs Texas Red in the Travers.

[cj]

Originally Posted by pandy

I don't understand some of these trainers nowadays. Violette has said he'll probably scratch Upstart and wait for the PA. Derby, which is 3 weeks from now. Why not race in both? The horse is a 3yo who has only raced 9 times, five this year. What, you're afraid the horse will get worn out from too much racing?

I don't know how anyone buys yearlings or two year olds the way these trainers baby the horses. This horse is two for two at Saratoga and has only raced three times since the winter. He's a three year old in the prime of his life. He can run tomorrow and three weeks from now.

The Frankelization of racing.

[Tom]

Sad to think how many really good norses we neve got to see because of really bad trainers and even worse owners. Race horse get to be great on the track, not in the stalls.

Why don't these owners invest in rocking horses?
They can keep them in their back yards and even ride them themselves.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Tom

Sad to think how many really good norses we neve got to see because of really bad trainers and even worse owners. Race horse get to be great on the track, not in the stalls.

Why don't these owners invest in rocking horses?
They can keep them in their back yards and even ride them themselves.

Horse racing was always about profit. Even back in the genteel days of yore, this was true. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. In the 19th Century, rich people bet each other whose horse would run faster in match races. Owners took horses out of retirement to run in the first $100,000 Santa Anita Handicap in 1935. Big rich stables pulled off legendary betting coups at Saratoga and on the Kentucky Derby undercard in days gone by.

The key change is the realization that the profits are far higher in breeding than in racing. This has evolved over time, though I think one of the early signs of it was Raise a Native, who made a boatload of money for his owners despite only starting four times. This was a revelation.

The reason why horses used to run a lot is because that was where the money was. Claimers STILL run a lot, because for them, that's where the money is. A consistent claimer here in California or in New York might win $400,000 if he races to 8 or 9 years old.

But for stakes horses, especially well-bred ones, the breeding industry simply offers far more money than even the richest stakes races

So the only thing that will ever lead to seeing stakes horses run more again would be a huge and long-lasting crash in the breeding industry. (By the way, that's a significant possibility over the long term. Yearlings and 2 year olds in training are hugely overpriced compared to their expected values.)

[pandy]

I agree with you but is Upstart really worth much as a sire?

[Tor Ekman]

Why isn't it possible that AP regresses off his Haskell performance? Of course, he could regress and still win considering the competition, but so many are acting like it's just a given that he'll just keep topping his previous performance, and forgetting how fickle horses, even the best of them, can be. I think we see something stunning tomorrow, I'm willing to try to beat him.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by pandy

I agree with you but is Upstart really worth much as a sire?

Once the economic imperative became clear, it became settled wisdom that all stakes horses needed lots of rest. And once that became settled wisdom, a whole generation of horsemen now believe it.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Why isn't it possible that AP regresses off his Haskell performance? Of course, he could regress and still win considering the competition, but so many are acting like it's just a given that he'll just keep topping his previous performance, and forgetting how fickle horses, even the best of them, can be. I think we see something stunning tomorrow, I'm willing to try to beat him.

Of course, he could regress, but that is true of any horse. The reason I feel like he'll keep running well, if not better, is that his victory in the Haskell was well below his capabilities, and it was clear that he could have run much faster than he did, he just didn't need to. In my mind it was just a good workout.

If you want to bet against him, by all means do so, and if you bet enough, maybe you'll make it possible for many others to bet on him.

[ultracapper]

There's only 4 possible outcomes of a race AP is in.

1. He wires them. (60%)

2. He stalks and takes over at the top of the lane. (35%)

3. He stalks a lone speed and gets stuck on the merry-go-round and can't quite get by him, finishing 2nd, (4.75%) or

4. He gets run off his feet by a speed burner (as in his debut) (0.25%). This is so unlikely that it's almost a joke to even bring it up.

The only horse in training that I know of that I think has any kind of realistic chance of beating him is Liam's Map. The only hope is to burn rubber out of the gate and hope you got enough to go all the way. Nobody in training, I mean nobody in training, is coming over the top of this guy if he's not run off his feet by some wild-eyed loose on the lead pace setter. Forget Honor Code, forget Texas Red, their situation is hopeless against this horse. Ferdinand wouldn't be able to reel this guy in, nor would Alysheba. I've been betting horses since 1982, and the only horse I can think of in the time that I've been playing that I think would have a legitimate chance of beating him at 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles is Spend A Buck.

His debut was a freak. It must be remembered that he was entered and scratched twice in the 2 or 3 weeks before his debut, so there's a chance something wasn't absolutely right with the horse. He goes out in his 2nd start and wires the Del Mar Futurity.

[NarrowRator]

Originally Posted by RXB

Keen Ice can win a major race is if the field is weak or if everything collapses in front of him, a la Drosselmeyer. He passes the untalented horses, off-form horses and pace casualties-- in sum, most of the field-- but I've seen nothing from him to make me think that he can catch a legit G1 horse that is in form and doesn't burn out.

Take American Pharoah out of the Haskell; I think Keen Ice still would've finished second.

Keen Ice or Frosted can upset tomorrow. Check out "How To Handicap The Travers Stakes In Less Than 10 Minutes" Quality Information FREE.

AP might be vulnerable.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by NarrowRator

Keen Ice or Frosted can upset tomorrow. Check out "How To Handicap The Travers Stakes In Less Than 10 Minutes" Quality Information FREE.

AP might be vulnerable.

So, what you are saying is that none of us have "quality information"?

Anything can happen in a horse race, the question is, do you have the discipline to pass this race? Because that's your only "quality" bet. Or, bet against AP and help move AP's odds higher, that would please many here.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

There's only 4 possible outcomes of a race AP is in.

1. He wires them. (60%)

2. He stalks and takes over at the top of the lane. (35%)

3. He stalks a lone speed and gets stuck on the merry-go-round and can't quite get by him, finishing 2nd, (4.75%) or

4. He gets run off his feet by a speed burner (as in his debut) (0.25%). This is so unlikely that it's almost a joke to even bring it up.

The only horse in training that I know of that I think has any kind of realistic chance of beating him is Liam's Map. The only hope is to burn rubber out of the gate and hope you got enough to go all the way. Nobody in training, I mean nobody in training, is coming over the top of this guy if he's not run off his feet by some wild-eyed loose on the lead pace setter. Forget Honor Code, forget Texas Red, their situation is hopeless against this horse. Ferdinand wouldn't be able to reel this guy in, nor would Alysheba. I've been betting horses since 1982, and the only horse I can think of in the time that I've been playing that I think would have a legitimate chance of beating him at 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles is Spend A Buck.

His debut was a freak. It must be remembered that he was entered and scratched twice in the 2 or 3 weeks before his debut, so there's a chance something wasn't absolutely right with the horse. He goes out in his 2nd start and wires the Del Mar Futurity.

All that makes sense, but, the problem is that this is an unpredictable game. Winning a lot of races in a row impressively doesn't turn AP into a rugged machine like some of the greats of the 1960s and 1970s. He's still a product of this era, horses aren't as rugged as they used to be, they're much more fragile, horses flop w no warning or reason these days.

Everyone thought the great Jim Rome horse would keep winning, but he went to a track he wasn't used to and didnt finish with no warning, just couldn't run.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

All that makes sense, but, the problem is that this is an unpredictable game. Winning a lot of races in a row impressively doesn't turn AP into a rugged machine like some of the greats of the 1960s and 1970s. He's still a product of this era, horses aren't as rugged as they used to be, they're much more fragile, horses flop w no warning or reason these days.

Everyone thought the great Jim Rome horse would keep winning, but he went to a track he wasn't used to and didnt finish with no warning, just couldn't run.

Rome's horse brokedown.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

. I've been betting horses since 1982, and the only horse I can think of in the time that I've been playing that I think would have a legitimate chance of beating him at 1 1/8 to 1 1/2 miles is Spend A Buck.

Ghostzapper

[Radar]

All the other horses running against AP are more likely to be vulnerable. AP is as good a bet as you are likely to see all year. One can play the odds or play the horse. If the odds are too low, the only prudent thing to do is to pass the race.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Redboard

I don't see that happening. If he went off at 1/9 , that equates to 100 , which leaves everyone else with only 25, they must add up to 125. (see http://www.aqha.com/Racing/Content-P...ning-Line.aspx )


AP 1/9 (100)
Texas Red 12/1 (7)
Frosted 12/1 (7)
Upstart 25/1 (3.5)
Keen Ice 25/1 (3.5)
the rest 20/1 (4)


My scenario:

AP 3/5 (62)
Texas Red 5/1 (16)
Frosted 5/1 (16)
Upstart 7/1 (13.5)
Keen Ice 7/1 (13.5)
the rest 20/1 (4)


In either case, I see Texas Red and Frosted evenly bet; and Upstart and Keen Ice will likewise be evenly bet.

IMO

No chance of 3/5. None.

My scenario if Upstart is in:
1: UPSTART (14-1)
2: AMERICAN PHAROAH (1-5)
3: MID OCEAN (99-1)
4: TEXAS RED (11-2)
5: FRAMMENTO (41-1)
6: FROSTED (15-2)
7: KEEN ICE (25-1)
8: TALE OF VERVE (38-1)
9: KING OF NEW YORK (99-1)
10: SMART TRANSITION (22-1)

My scenario if Upstart is NOT in:
1: **SCRATCH**
2: AMERICAN PHAROAH (1-5)
3: MID OCEAN (91-1)
4: TEXAS RED (9-2)
5: FRAMMENTO (38-1)
6: FROSTED (5-1)
7: KEEN ICE (20-1)
8: TALE OF VERVE (32-1)
9: KING OF NEW YORK (90-1)
10: SMART TRANSITION (19-1)