top 10 mistakes - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

ldiatone · 03-28-2017, 08:17 PM

just f.ound this one can dipute or agree or just have fun reading
http://racingdudes.com/top-10-kentuc...ring-mistakes/

EasyGoer89 · 03-28-2017, 08:36 PM

Their #10 take a stand, what if your stand is that anything can happen? I've had that theory before and I've boxed up a large amount of horses in the tri, my stand was I had no stand!

EasyGoer89 · 03-28-2017, 08:42 PM

I think the thing that people need to realize (more of something to realize vs a mistake) is that you can't bet a 20 horse field like you normally bet, it's a different animal. Picking a WINNER in a 20 horse field is equivalent to picking a cold exa in a 5 horse field, it's hard.

Picking a winning exacta in a 20 horse field is equivalent to trying to pick a winner in a 380 horse field, think you could pick a winner out of 380 horses (hypothetically of course)

A race like the derby isn't for the faint of bankroll!

Inner Dirt · 03-28-2017, 09:10 PM

The guy is the liar if he thinks he is the worst at picking the Kentucky Derby winner, because I have that honor. There have been 38 of them run since I started betting thoroughbreds at the age of 18. Looking over the list I have only picked it correctly 5 times that all paid less than $10 to win. I went in person once in 1999 and did not cash a ticket on a Churchill race on Oaks or Derby day. Even if I am not betting I always tried to pick the race.

thaskalos · 03-28-2017, 09:19 PM

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

reckless · 03-29-2017, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?

Murph · 03-29-2017, 03:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

I can make good use of this statistic. I don't how common the knowledge may be but it saves me some time on the question. Which leads to a question.

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?

Why do they flog on you, thaskalos? I've noticed your hit rate for this type of comment is up recently.

thaskalos · 03-29-2017, 04:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murph

Why do they flog on you, thaskalos? I've noticed your hit rate for this type of comment is up recently.

If this is what you consider "flogging"...then I am led to believe that you haven't been spending much time around here.

Murph · 03-29-2017, 04:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If this is what you consider "flogging"...then I am led to believe that you haven't been spending much time around here.

OK Now I get it.

Inner Dirt · 03-29-2017, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

"51 of the last 54 Kentucky Derby winners were in first or second place with a furlong to go. Think about that for a second."...the man says.

And we've been losing money on the Derby all these years.

I would venture a guess if they held other 1 1/4 mile races for 3 year olds in late spring or earlier you would get the same result. After running 1 1/8 mile not many have enough energy to overtake a rival.

HuggingTheRail · 03-29-2017, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reckless

Gus, did you know that 54 of the last 54 Derby winners were first at the finish line too?

Dancer's Image with an asterisk?

HalvOnHorseracing · 03-29-2017, 11:12 AM

Taking a stance resonates with me. Like most people, my success in the Derby has been mixed, but I've had some memorable hits - Pleasant Colony, Unbridled, Sunny's Halo, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos - that were because I had a firm opinion. Of course some years my opinion is a lot shakier than others. To steal a line from Rush

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

HoofedInTheChest · 03-29-2017, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice

You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that's clear
I will choose freewill

CincyHorseplayer · 03-29-2017, 12:04 PM

If mediocre payoffs are the most likely outcomes=pass the race. Mediocrity can be had any day of the week and in more predictable races.

PhantomOnTour · 03-29-2017, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

If mediocre payoffs are the most likely outcomes=pass the race. Mediocrity can be had any day of the week and in more predictable races.

I'm usually ecstatic when I hit the Derby ex or tri or whatever....but last year I basically watched in bored silence as I hit the trifecta.
It seemed so easy and anticlimactic. All I could muster was a small "hang on Gun Runner" as Nyquist went by him in the lane. Luckily he barely held 3rd.
Hoping this year provides more excitement and value as we've had some boring Derbies lately that didn't pay well (see the Chrome, Dortmund, Firing Line finish from a few years ago)