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View Poll Results: Where do you think Arrogate should race next?
Breeders’ Cup Classic 26 48.15%
Jockey Club Gold Cup 8 14.81%
Woodward 5 9.26%
Awesome Again 3 5.56%
Pegasus 1 1.85%
Santa Anita Handicap (in the spring) 0 0%
Other 1 1.85%
Retire him 10 18.52%
Voters: 54. This poll is closed

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Old 08-23-2017, 12:34 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
I didn't think you'd answer a very direct question about this specific horse. Not generalizations, I'm talking about this specific instance.

Another victim though. You're the aggressor, fraud. You obviously care since you take a lot of time trying to prove me wrong. Under your skin much?

I maintain you made up what you do for a living and I maintain his 2nd in the Pacific Classic will have no bearing on his stud fee or who is sent to him next year.

Now go fake watch a few workouts and pretend you're an expert, little boy.
I did answer, and very specifically. You have no idea how the market works if you think these losses haven't devalued him. Remember Cigar? He with the modest pedigree? Because he was a true great, he commanded a high value as a stallion prospect from the farm which purchased him, and entered stud at $50k, which was a very rich price. The stud fee on Arrogate wasn't set at the Travers, BC, Pegasus, or DWC. It will be set this Fall. He not only fell from "true great" status, he's not even #1 on the poll. He may not even win the Older Male Eclipse. These 2 losses have absolutely, without question, devalued him. A win in the Classic may bring the value back up. A loss in the Classic could bring it down further. And if he's left true great status, there will be renewed looks at how hot he is, and whether they want to breed to a son of UBS after all. All of his performances matter, particularly when he's had a short run of exciting races, not 16 straight where he cemented his greatness despite a loss or two at the tailing off of a great career.

Now, where shall I meet you at the September sale?
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Old 08-23-2017, 01:12 PM   #32
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I don't know enough about the stud market to definitively opine on this, but it seems to me that just as a matter of common sense, Fager's got to be right about this. Just as a perception issue, "brilliant flash in the pan who had a streak of 4 great races but never was as good before or after" isn't going to be as attractive to breeders as "unambiguously the greatest horse of his generation who ran one brilliant race after another once he got good".

Especially given everything we know about our sport re: doping and the like.
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Old 08-23-2017, 01:48 PM   #33
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I did answer, and very specifically. You have no idea how the market works if you think these losses haven't devalued him. Remember Cigar? He with the modest pedigree? Because he was a true great, he commanded a high value as a stallion prospect from the farm which purchased him, and entered stud at $50k, which was a very rich price. The stud fee on Arrogate wasn't set at the Travers, BC, Pegasus, or DWC. It will be set this Fall. He not only fell from "true great" status, he's not even #1 on the poll. He may not even win the Older Male Eclipse. These 2 losses have absolutely, without question, devalued him. A win in the Classic may bring the value back up. A loss in the Classic could bring it down further. And if he's left true great status, there will be renewed looks at how hot he is, and whether they want to breed to a son of UBS after all. All of his performances matter, particularly when he's had a short run of exciting races, not 16 straight where he cemented his greatness despite a loss or two at the tailing off of a great career.

Now, where shall I meet you at the September sale?
He's not #1 on the poll? Who cares about a poll?

You don't lose true great status with losses at the end of your career. That's amateur hour talk. They've devalued him in the eye of people looking at polls or that are internet warriors who can NEVER concede a point.

Plenty of horses tail off at the end of their career and their legacies were not tarnished.

My point, which you can't handle because it's coming from me is in the case of THIS SPECIFIC HORSE, anyone that was going to breed to him are still going to. I can guarantee he'll have a full book.

You know nothing about me or what kind of experience or knowledge I have with any aspect of the racing business. Just like I don't know you other than I can smell bullshit better than most and you reek of it. Years of you playing know it all on a message board and suddenly you're John Magnier? GTF out of here with that nonsense.
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Old 08-23-2017, 01:49 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I don't know enough about the stud market to definitively opine on this, but it seems to me that just as a matter of common sense, Fager's got to be right about this. Just as a perception issue, "brilliant flash in the pan who had a streak of 4 great races but never was as good before or after" isn't going to be as attractive to breeders as "unambiguously the greatest horse of his generation who ran one brilliant race after another once he got good".

Especially given everything we know about our sport re: doping and the like.
I'm not disagreeing that horses can be devalued. I'm talking about this specific horse. It's not like he went into the Pacific Classic undefeated.
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Old 08-23-2017, 02:28 PM   #35
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He's not #1 on the poll? Who cares about a poll?

You don't lose true great status with losses at the end of your career. That's amateur hour talk. They've devalued him in the eye of people looking at polls or that are internet warriors who can NEVER concede a point.

Plenty of horses tail off at the end of their career and their legacies were not tarnished.

My point, which you can't handle because it's coming from me is in the case of THIS SPECIFIC HORSE, anyone that was going to breed to him are still going to. I can guarantee he'll have a full book.

You know nothing about me or what kind of experience or knowledge I have with any aspect of the racing business. Just like I don't know you other than I can smell bullshit better than most and you reek of it. Years of you playing know it all on a message board and suddenly you're John Magnier? GTF out of here with that nonsense.
No kidding, Einstein. I said too that he'd have a full book. His stud fee can and does fluctuate, which means he can indeed devalue, which was the original question. And he has devalued with these two losses, there is no question about that by anyone who has a clue, of which obviously you're not one.

As for smelling bullshit, that's because you're smelling your top lip.
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Old 08-23-2017, 02:41 PM   #36
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Lets knock it off with the insults. I don't mind the bickering until it gets out of hand, which it just did.
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Old 08-23-2017, 02:49 PM   #37
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No kidding, Einstein. I said too that he'd have a full book. His stud fee can and does fluctuate, which means he can indeed devalue, which was the original question. And he has devalued with these two losses, there is no question about that by anyone who has a clue, of which obviously you're not one.

As for smelling bullshit, that's because you're smelling your top lip.
So if he's going to have a full book, how has he been devalued?

He's going to stand by his owners right? You think they're going to lower what they were going to have his initial stud fee be....considering they know they'll have a full book?

Let's see you back up your talk Mr Big Time Horse Owner. Name a horse you've owned.
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Old 08-23-2017, 03:07 PM   #38
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So if he's going to have a full book, how has he been devalued?

He's going to stand by his owners right? You think they're going to lower what they were going to have his initial stud fee be....considering they know they'll have a full book?

Let's see you back up your talk Mr Big Time Horse Owner. Name a horse you've owned.
Can you even do simple math?

Let me help you out.

When Arrogate was "the greatest horse in the world," perhaps they thought they could get a $100k stud fee, even though he's by UBS. That's $10m a year based on 100 paid stud fees, and $30m in 3 years.

Now that Arrogate has fallen to earth, they may no longer be able to get $100k. If they can get $75k, they've lost $2.5m a year, or $7.5m in 3 years.

If they have to cut him to $50k, that's a loss in value of $5m a year, and $15m in 3 years.

This isn't tough. I'll explain it to my neighbor's 8yo when they come over to swim later today. I bet he gets the math.

Will Take Charge was a pretty accomplished son of UBS, and he could only command $30k as a stud fee, and that's being out of Take Charge Lady, a far superior female family than Arrogate's.

No one thinks he won't get a full book, but only you seem to not understand that the stud fee and quality of mares are subject to fluctuation, meaning yes, he can devalue and already has.

It's your problem if you don't believe my wild claim that I work in horse racing and it includes selection of horses at the sales. I'll be at Sept. I'll post about some horses that we won't be bidding on since you're so interested.
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Old 08-23-2017, 03:19 PM   #39
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You keep twisting my words and that's fine. Whatever it takes for you and your need to win the internet.

Saying I don't understand math is hilarious. Comparing Will Take Charge to Arrogate is even funnier.

I didn't think you'd be able to name a horse you owned. Big talk...nothing to back it up.
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Old 08-23-2017, 03:32 PM   #40
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You keep twisting my words and that's fine. Whatever it takes for you and your need to win the internet.

Saying I don't understand math is hilarious. Comparing Will Take Charge to Arrogate is even funnier.

I didn't think you'd be able to name a horse you owned. Big talk...nothing to back it up.
If you think I'm outing who I am just to satisfy you, you'd be wrong. Again.
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Old 08-23-2017, 03:53 PM   #41
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If you think I'm outing who I am just to satisfy you, you'd be wrong. Again.
Maybe you should be smelling your own upper lip.
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Old 08-23-2017, 04:37 PM   #42
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Maybe you should be smelling your own upper lip.
Didn't you hear CJ about continuing with that particular line?

Let me give you another example of the market at play in KY. Remember the TC winner? No way he wouldn't get a full book, right? But he wasn't filling at $200k, they'd overpriced him. They started calling clients and offering a 2 for 1 deal, essentially lowering him to $100k to fill the book. Breeders don't pay just anything to go to any stallion. The farm has to hit the mark on what their clients will pay to go to that stallion.

You don't think the poll matters? Those voters are among the Eclipse voters, so often the poll is in line with Eclipse voting. You don't think winning an Eclipse increases a horse's value? Then why is each win worth 7 figures in stallion contracts? The farm knows they can recover that value in stud fees.

You really don't understand why WTC was discussed? Looking at other similar stallions is part of how you value stallion prospects. I showed you how UBS at the top hurt WTC's value. If he was by AP Indy, for example, he'd probably have commanded $50k instead of $30k.

Breeding isn't racing, it's a whole other ballgame. Pedigree does matter. Confirmation matters. And how hot a stallion is matters. Breeders will pay more for "hot" and "great."

Last edited by Fager Fan; 08-23-2017 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 08-23-2017, 05:09 PM   #43
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Didn't you hear CJ about continuing with that particular line?

Let me give you another example of the market at play in KY. Remember the TC winner? No way he wouldn't get a full book, right? But he wasn't filling at $200k, they'd overpriced him. They started calling clients and offering a 2 for 1 deal, essentially lowering him to $100k to fill the book. Breeders don't pay just anything to go to any stallion. The farm has to hit the mark on what their clients will pay to go to that stallion.

You don't think the poll matters? Those voters are among the Eclipse voters, so often the poll is in line with Eclipse voting. You don't think winning an Eclipse increases a horse's value? Then why is each win worth 7 figures in stallion contracts? The farm knows they can recover that value in stud fees.

You really don't understand why WTC was discussed? Looking at other similar stallions is part of how you value stallion prospects. I showed you how UBS at the top hurt WTC's value. If he was by AP Indy, for example, he'd probably have commanded $50k instead of $30k.

Breeding isn't racing, it's a whole other ballgame. Pedigree does matter. Confirmation matters. And how hot a stallion is matters. Breeders will pay more for "hot" and "great."
Shouldn't you be swimming with 8 year olds?
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Old 08-23-2017, 09:19 PM   #44
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So his worst Beyer of the year beats 99% of all other horses' BEST.

A stinking 114.

If it were up to me, I would run him back in the Travers.
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Old 08-24-2017, 01:35 PM   #45
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Didn't you hear CJ about continuing with that particular line?

Let me give you another example of the market at play in KY. Remember the TC winner? No way he wouldn't get a full book, right? But he wasn't filling at $200k, they'd overpriced him. They started calling clients and offering a 2 for 1 deal, essentially lowering him to $100k to fill the book. ............
Best way to enter the breeding shed is to win the triple crown and follow that up with a BCC win. AP may have been priced high but they knew the buzz would die down and they'd have to lower the price the next year.

As his 2-yr-old babies hit the track next year, the buyers will have a better idea of what exactly they are getting. It's all about performance from here on out.

You brought up good points about Arrogate's UBS pedigree, I had forgotten about that. If he retires with three straight losses, and no triple crown wins on his resume, with that pedigree, I don't see him getting six figures, to start anyway.

The San Diego loss looks like hell. No wonder Baffert is kicking himself for racing him there.
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