Arrogate's Next Race

[cj]

Do people really think another loss would de-value his breeding worth? I think that was probably set after he won the BC last year for the most part, maybe even the Travers.

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail

The BC Premiers at HST - a mile and three furlongs on the bullring would be ideal...

I Laughed

Z

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

Do people really think another loss would de-value his breeding worth? I think that was probably set after he won the BC last year for the most part, maybe even the Travers.

Yes. The past 2 losses have already cost them.

He already has something not in his favor, and that's being a son of Unbridled's Song. UBS had a fair amount of opportunity to prove himself as a sire of sire, and to date hasn't come through with a really good son in that department. The one who currently gives him a chance is one that doesn't seem to take after his sire at all but instead his dam, and that's Will Take Charge. Almost all of the best UBS offspring were gray, and fragile. Will Take Charge was neither of those things, nor does he have that typical UBS lanky build. He may make it as a sire (I've seen a number of his yearlings who are impressive), but I know my feeling and the feeling of some others will be that it will be despite of UBS and thanks to his brilliant mom.

This guy? He has UBS written all over him. From the gray coat to the brilliance to the lanky look. So while that's helping him on the track, it'll cost him in the shed. It will be all the superlatives and his lofty reputation which will increase the demand, which will make him cost more and attract the top notch mares.

So yes, the losses do cost him. Stallion prospects really aren't like broodmare prospects in having almost a set value after certain wins. This guy doesn't have to worry about not being given a chance in the Bluegrass, but the difference between "hot" and warm can be significant.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by cj

Do people really think another loss would de-value his breeding worth? I think that was probably set after he won the BC last year for the most part, maybe even the Travers.

They shouldn't. It's all set and has been for months. People that were going to breed to him aren't not going to now because he ran a dud in the San Diego and missed by a 1/2 in the Pacific Classic. His Travers/Classic/Dubai trifecta is pretty hard to forget.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

They shouldn't. It's all set and has been for months. People that were going to breed to him aren't not going to now because he ran a dud in the San Diego and missed by a 1/2 in the Pacific Classic. His Travers/Classic/Dubai trifecta is pretty hard to forget.

Proving you should stick to handicapping.

CJ, here's a simple way to know the answer. It's well known he's standing next year and at his owner's farm. Why didn't they set or announce his fee after the Pegasus or DWC if it's not subject to change? Think of all the many articles we read every year about a stallion prospect's rights being sold, and how few of those also include the fee the horse will stand for. The fee is only usually set once we near November and the booking season. The remaining performances for the horse do matter and can make his fee rise or lower. Even retiring early in the year can be a detriment as the horse cools as he's "out of sight, out of mind."

You're right that he was "set" as a stallion prospect meaning he had earned a career at stud and at a decent fee. He will undoubtedly get a full book, but the quality of that book can and does shift, and a $10k shift in his fee means millions.

So a horse's reputation and performances always matters, even for Arrogate.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Proving you should stick to handicapping.

CJ, here's a simple way to know the answer. It's well known he's standing next year and at his owner's farm. Why didn't they set or announce his fee after the Pegasus or DWC if it's not subject to change? Think of all the many articles we read every year about a stallion prospect's rights being sold, and how few of those also include the fee the horse will stand for. The fee is only usually set once we near November and the booking season. The remaining performances for the horse do matter and can make his fee rise or lower. Even retiring early in the year can be a detriment as the horse cools as he's "out of sight, out of mind."

You're right that he was "set" as a stallion prospect meaning he had earned a career at stud and at a decent fee. He will undoubtedly get a full book, but the quality of that book can and does shift, and a $10k shift in his fee means millions.

So a horse's reputation and performances always matters, even for Arrogate.

You should stick to lying about what you do for a career.

[Dahoss9698]

Just so we're clear, I should stick to handicapping but Fager Fraud thinks his book might change quality wise because he ran a 114 Beyer and was 2nd in the Pacific Classic.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Just so we're clear, I should stick to handicapping but Fager Fraud thinks his book might change quality wise because he ran a 114 Beyer and was 2nd in the Pacific Classic.

Only an idiot thinks otherwise, but then you've proven to be that many times over.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Only an idiot thinks otherwise, but then you've proven to be that many times over.

So in your opinion people who were going to send their mares to Arrogate next year are now not going to because of the result of the Pacific Classic?

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

So in your opinion people who were going to send their mares to Arrogate next year are now not going to because of the result of the Pacific Classic?

Read my posts. I've already explained it thoroughly there. I don't care if you don't agree, you have zero experience in breeding and sales, so take a hike and go harass someone else since that's the only thing you are an expert at.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Read my posts. I've already explained it thoroughly there. I don't care if you don't agree, you have zero experience in breeding and sales, so take a hike and go harass someone else since that's the only thing you are an expert at.

I didn't think you'd answer a very direct question about this specific horse. Not generalizations, I'm talking about this specific instance.

Another victim though. You're the aggressor, fraud. You obviously care since you take a lot of time trying to prove me wrong. Under your skin much?

I maintain you made up what you do for a living and I maintain his 2nd in the Pacific Classic will have no bearing on his stud fee or who is sent to him next year.

Now go fake watch a few workouts and pretend you're an expert, little boy.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by cj

Last I saw it doesn't matter what we think, Classic is his next start. Breeders' Cup has destroyed other stakes around the country.

"Breeders' Cup has destroyed other stakes around the country."
I concur..and has resulted in " Graded stakes cramming".Sort of like what NYRA does at Belmont in creating the so called "Super Saturday"

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

he's going to go straight to the Breeders Cup and hope that GUNRUNNER catches a cupcake field in his prep. i happen to know that team GUNRUNNER isn't going to run in an easy field and get wiped out in the Breeders Cup. they think they have the goods and want to face only the best.

Cupcake field....
I use "tomato can field"...Same thing...LOL

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by thespaah

"Breeders' Cup has destroyed other stakes around the country."
I concur..and has resulted in " Graded stakes cramming".Sort of like what NYRA does at Belmont in creating the so called "Super Saturday"

now 1 month out is too close, and August is the new Super Saturday.

I blame the sheets bullshit more than anything else.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by thespaah

"Breeders' Cup has destroyed other stakes around the country."
I concur..and has resulted in " Graded stakes cramming".Sort of like what NYRA does at Belmont in creating the so called "Super Saturday"

That is driven by handle and would have happened anyway.