Underachieving With Good Overall Results?

[CincyHorseplayer]

This isn't about a redboard or braggadocio. The last 2 Saturdays playing Saratoga/Arlington and Saratoga/Del Mar I have felt I have done some really good handicapping and the basic win numbers are great but I feel a horrible sense of underachievement. I feel like I am blindsided by landmines at Saratoga(fairly normal!). Finding wins but getting blown out of exotics left and right. Other than a few mediocre doubles I haven't hit any consecutive bets like pick 3-4. I was alive in the P4 to 3 last week and got consos when the last race got rained off the turf. I have had longshots win with zero exotics. I have had mostly medium prices get blown out or low paying exactas. I have hit absolutely zero tri's or supers. The only thing I have maintained is turning the trick with the exacta. Might be a few races a day where I even get to attempt it when there is a race that looks easy on paper and you go with 1-2 combinations but instead of the exacta paying $12-25 it's paying $35-45. I'll make 2% bankroll plays on these combinations. Last race at Del Mar yesterday I annihilated the $45 exacta. That has been the extent of my types of glory and a steady win/avg mutuel diet. But I just feel like I am not squeezing enough blood out of this turnip. Right there. On the edge, cusp, something.

I know you all have been through this. Is there any advice you can give me other than keep plugging away to leverage this?

Plays-win-place-show(most bets revolve around a win/place finish)

19-7-5-1

-37% win

-63% WP

-102% ROI

-1.650 OPS( horseplayer OPS add WP + ROI)

-11.93 avg mutuel

[CincyHorseplayer]

Played horseshoes all day yesterday after the Saturday marathon session! Getting a buzz and playing from home today. 1 bet 1 loss. Think the is going to romp in the 7th at Toga! Kill it boys! Lovin life!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgYuLsudaJQ

[JohnGalt1]

We've all been there.

Sunday I was able to play 5 pick fours at Presque isle. they are the only track I know of that offers pick fours in all races

My horse(s) lost the 4th and 5th races killing all the pick fours.

I made 3 win bets, all won, so made a $27.50 profit.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

We've all been there.

Sunday I was able to play 5 pick fours at Presque isle. they are the only track I know of that offers pick fours in all races

My horse(s) lost the 4th and 5th races killing all the pick fours.

I made 3 win bets, all won, so made a $27.50 profit.

I was alive in a $5 pick 3 at Toga with a 30-1 and a 5-1 and got a nose loss in the middle leg at 7/2(I think!). That's the way the exotics have been NOT falling for me!

I like Presque Isle too. You sift through all these tracks to get a feel for them and discard what sucks for you. PID is bettor friendly IMO.

I was talking to the poster "Belmont" before the Toga meet and I said I was going to bet win heavy and play exotics sparingly but big. After many painful Augusts I have stuck to this and it has served me well. I chase rainbows and find them occasionally but there is nothing better than win bets at square prices that are findable!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Why were there 3 deleted posts on this thread? I replied to one person's post and Replay Randall had one. I don't recall anything too bad from any of them. RR just said he private messaged me. What's going on gang?

[CincyHorseplayer]

7-1-1-2 today.

But had exotics galore with P3, P4, and a bunch of double key exactas and tris.

But Saratoga rarely ever let's you do it all at one time! Havin fun and won $28.25 today !

[green80]

sk

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

This isn't about a redboard or braggadocio. The last 2 Saturdays playing Saratoga/Arlington and Saratoga/Del Mar I have felt I have done some really good handicapping and the basic win numbers are great but I feel a horrible sense of underachievement. I feel like I am blindsided by landmines at Saratoga(fairly normal!). Finding wins but getting blown out of exotics left and right. Other than a few mediocre doubles I haven't hit any consecutive bets like pick 3-4. I was alive in the P4 to 3 last week and got consos when the last race got rained off the turf. I have had longshots win with zero exotics. I have had mostly medium prices get blown out or low paying exactas. I have hit absolutely zero tri's or supers. The only thing I have maintained is turning the trick with the exacta. Might be a few races a day where I even get to attempt it when there is a race that looks easy on paper and you go with 1-2 combinations but instead of the exacta paying $12-25 it's paying $35-45. I'll make 2% bankroll plays on these combinations. Last race at Del Mar yesterday I annihilated the $45 exacta. That has been the extent of my types of glory and a steady win/avg mutuel diet. But I just feel like I am not squeezing enough blood out of this turnip. Right there. On the edge, cusp, something.

I know you all have been through this. Is there any advice you can give me other than keep plugging away to leverage this?

Plays-win-place-show(most bets revolve around a win/place finish)

19-7-5-1

-37% win

-63% WP

-102% ROI

-1.650 OPS( horseplayer OPS add WP + ROI)

-11.93 avg mutuel

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

[GMB@BP]

I think my handicapping has been ok, I am going to spreadsheet it out but I mostly bet win so its pretty simple.

I am down 45 dollars since the start of Saratoga/Del Mar.

I am getting raped on the turf course, in fact if I only bet dirt races I could go on a nice all expenses paid vacation with money won.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by green80

sk

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

Your first sentence, we were discussing prior to this meet and yes win bets are a big focus. For the year my AB contenders win 57% of the time and marginal contenders 32%. My cash rate on bet races has been over 50% this year. During this month my AB contenders have won 43% of the time and MC's have won 27%. Cash rate has been OK. I was 3 for 7 yesterday. But judgement calls have been the big difference. I just won't give in when there is a Chad Brown turf horse at 2-1. I just don't do it. I bet the other horse with what I think are relatively equal abilities but at 5-1. That's it. I cashed bets yesterday and only found 1 winner at 7-1 but I battled all day. I had a handle on the card. Just could not extract the big bucks from it! Saratoga is tough man!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I think my handicapping has been ok, I am going to spreadsheet it out but I mostly bet win so its pretty simple.

I am down 45 dollars since the start of Saratoga/Del Mar.

I am getting raped on the turf course, in fact if I only bet dirt races I could go on a nice all expenses paid vacation with money won.

Brother I think I am a turf guy but they kick my ass and baffle me too! With Saratoga you have to remain steadfast. Bet big expectations look for chaos. I've gotten my wins but I am looking to crush the hell out of something! It's the fun part! Good work. I'm sure as an experienced player I don't have to say it but hanging around is the first virtue of a player in my mind. You are good enough to not lose. That is the launch pad.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by green80

sk

Looks like you would be better off with straight win bets. Skip the exotics until you can show a + ROI with win bets. I would only consider a place bet with horses going off at around 10/1 or better then bet 1/2 unit win and 1/2 unit place. With a 37% win rate and 11.93 avg mutual, looks like you were able to turn a 100+ % ROI into a -102% with poor betting skills.

If I am reading your post correctly, If you can hit 7/19 winners with a $11.93 avg mutual you should have a +119% roi.

I separate bets. Basic 3 unit method 2 units win 1 unit place. Since Saratoga can be unforgiving I have skipped place bets and blast to win. This is one meet where when they win you best capitalize. All the other moving parts are spurious!

[green80]

you are betting the toughest track in the country to try to win at. My winnings have always been better at the smaller tracks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by green80

you are betting the toughest track in the country to try to win at. My winnings have always been better at the smaller tracks.

It is tough. I just had a 2 length lead evaporate into a non cash in less than a 16th of a mile!

Overall my contender selection is worse than at every other track in the country combined. My win % over the years has been there at this meet though. But they are usually isolated events. My win place % has always been around 48% historically. At Toga it barely eclipses the win %. I have definitely learned to chuck it to win and play horizontals. It's the only thing that kept my sanity intact!